ASML valuation — August 2026
At about US$1,741/share, ASML has a market value of roughly US$685B. The important point is that the valuation looks expensive on 2026 earnings, but considerably more reasonable if ASML delivers the very strong earnings growth currently expected.
ASML’s Q2 was excellent: revenue was €9.33B, net income €2.92B, and management raised 2026 revenue guidance to €43–45B, with 54–56% gross margin.
My valuation framework
Analyst consensus currently puts 2026 EPS around €37.90, with a range of €31.81–€40.42.
Using roughly €38 EPS:
Scenario P/E Approx. fair value* View
Bear 30× ~€1,140 Significant correction
Conservative 35× ~€1,330 Some downside
Base 40× ~€1,520 Roughly fair
Bull 45× ~€1,710 Attractive if growth accelerates
Very bullish 50× ~€1,900 AI boom continues
*Using 2026 EPS and approximate EUR/USD conversion; this is a valuation framework rather than a precise price target.
But 2026 EPS isn’t the most important number. ASML is expanding capacity aggressively because customers are committing to much higher future demand. Management plans roughly 30% more DUV immersion capacity in 2027, while also expanding EUV capacity.
Morningstar’s updated model is considerably more bullish: it estimates approximately €70B revenue and €69 EPS by 2028, and has raised its fair value estimate to €1,800. Its bear case is €1,100–€1,400 if growth stalls after the capacity expansion.
For the NASDAQ ADR:
Bear case: US$1,300–1,500
* AI semiconductor capex slows
* China/export restrictions worsen
* ASML’s valuation falls toward 25–30× forward earnings
Base case: US$1,750–2,050
* 2026 revenue reaches €43–45B
* 2027 earnings continue growing strongly
* P/E remains around 35–40×
Bull case: US$2,200–2,500
* AI demand remains extremely strong
* TSMC/Samsung/Intel continue expanding aggressively
* High-NA EUV adoption accelerates
* Earnings estimates continue being revised upward
12–24 month target: ~US$1,900–2,000.
That represents roughly 9–15% upside from the current price, before dividends, but with substantial volatility along the way.
Is ASML a buy now?
I’d classify it as BUY on weakness / HOLD at US$1,740, rather than an aggressive buy.
The interesting thing is that ASML’s business outlook has improved faster than its valuation has become attractive. The Q2 guidance upgrade was substantial: 2026 revenue midpoint went from €38B to €44B, about a 16% increase.
Let’s say:
* <$1,500: 🟢 Strong buy
* $1,500–1,650: 🟢 Buy
* $1,650–1,800: 🟡 Accumulate/hold
* $1,800–2,000: 🟠 Hold
* >$2,100: 🔴 Would wait for a pullback
The key risk is valuation. ASML is an extraordinary business, but at US$1,741 the market is already pricing in a lot of the AI/chip-cycle recovery.
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