To The Moon

🚀 SpaceX Surged 15.8% — Now Rocket Lab Has to Deliver

Hi Tigers! 🐯

SpaceX jumped 15.83% last Friday, pushing through the largest lock-up expiry on record — and that move matters beyond SpaceX itself.

The money is rotating back into the space sector.

Rocket Lab followed with a +9.46% move, but unlike SpaceX, RKLB still has something to prove.

📊 Tonight’s earnings could be the turning point.

Wall Street is looking for roughly $232M revenue, representing around 60% YoY growth. That is already a high bar — but the bigger question isn’t simply whether Rocket Lab beats revenue.

It’s whether management can show that growth is accelerating across its launch, satellite systems and defense businesses.

🚀 Why I’m bullish on RKLB

Rocket Lab is no longer just a “small rocket company.”

Its Electron launch business provides recurring launch activity, while the much larger opportunity is increasingly in space systems, satellites and defense contracts.

And with RKLB still roughly 57% below its previous high, the stock has significantly more room to re-rate if tonight’s numbers confirm that the business is executing.

The SpaceX move also provides an important sector signal:

Institutional capital is willing to pay up for space exposure again.

That doesn’t mean Rocket Lab automatically deserves SpaceX’s valuation.

But it does mean the sector’s biggest name is helping reopen the narrative — and Rocket Lab is one of the clearest public-market beneficiaries.

⚠️ The one number I’m watching

Revenue growth isn’t enough.

If Rocket Lab delivers strong revenue but gives weak guidance, burns more cash than expected, or fails to show improving economics, the recent rally could quickly fade.

But if we get:

✅ Revenue above ~$232M

✅ Strong forward guidance

✅ Continued backlog growth

✅ Improving margins / cash efficiency

✅ Positive commentary around defense & satellite demand

then the market could start treating RKLB less like a speculative launch company and more like a strategic space & defense platform.

🎯 My take

I’m bullish on Rocket Lab into/through earnings.

SpaceX just showed that investors are willing to aggressively reprice space exposure after a major technical overhang clears.

Now Rocket Lab has the opportunity to take the baton.

The setup is simple:

SpaceX proved the appetite.

Rocket Lab needs to prove the fundamentals.

If it does, I think this rally has much further to run. 🚀📈