Investment Thesis For SanDisk (SNDK)
Sandisk on Thursday said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-teens percentage rate from fiscal years 2028 to 2030, encouraged by strong demand amid rapid AI infrastructure buildout.
The company said the projection is in line with growth in the amount of storage capacity it produces, a metric the industry calls "bit growth."
Speaking at Sandisk's Investor Day, finance chief Luis Visoso said the company expects adjusted gross margins to remain at around 80% over the same period.
By laying out a multi-year framework tied to committed customer volumes, Sandisk is seeking to show that its recent growth can be sustained, rather than reflecting a temporary demand spike.
Under its new business model, Sandisk has signed agreements with eight customers, which include three U.S. hyperscalers, covering about half of its storage output in fiscal 2027 and two-thirds in fiscal 2028.
Chief Technology Officer Alper Ilkbahar said Sandisk has taped out its first memory die — or the individual silicon chip that stores data — for its High Bandwidth Flash technology, and is working to deliver initial samples to customers developing AI inference devices next year.
HBF is a memory chip that combines the speed of high-bandwidth memory used with AI processors and the capacity of flash memory, helping data centers meet the growing memory demands of AI inference — the data crunching that occurs when a user queries a chatbot.
The outlook builds on Sandisk's financial results reported last week, when it also forecast first-quarter revenue above analyst estimates, citing rising demand for memory chips used in AI data centers.
Goldman Sachs, in a research note dated August 13, highlighted that SanDisk Corp. not only provided long-term financial guidance that significantly exceeded market expectations (80% gross margin, 75% operating margin) but also made a bold commitment to return 100% of excess free cash flow to shareholders. Furthermore, the company's next-generation HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) technology roadmap for AI inference provides substantial upside potential.
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