To The Moon

Wall Street's main stock indexes closed lower on Thursday (Aug 20) as rising Treasury yields dented risk appetite, disappointing results from retail bellwether Walmart soured investors on the consumer sector and rallying oil prices fanned inflation worries.

Regarding the options market, a total volume of 63,904,797 contracts was traded, of which 55% were call options.

Top 10 Option Volumes

Top 10: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$, $Tesla(TSLA)$, $SpaceX(SPCX)$, $Apple(AAPL)$, $Strategy(MSTR)$, $Intel(INTC)$, $Micron Technology(MU)$, $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$, $Wal-Mart(WMT)$, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ closed at $83.66, up 6.45%. CRCL drew unusually large options activity on Thursday, with a $2.00 million net-debit call calendar spread and a $1.70 million short put sale dominating the tape. The two prints combined for $3.70 million in bullish premium flow against zero bearish block trades, signaling that institutional participants are positioning for continued upside rather than hedging against a pullback.

Options Indicators

CRCL’s implied volatility stands at 88.75%, and its IV percentile is 44.62%, which places current volatility in a neutral historical zone rather than an extreme one. In other words, while the absolute IV level is high, it is not especially rich relative to its own recent range, so options appear fairly priced overall instead of clearly cheap or expensive. With an IV/HV ratio of 1.35, implied volatility is running above realized volatility, indicating the options market is embedding a noticeable premium over recent actual movement.

Large Trades

A CALL calendar-style combination with a net debit of $2.00 million was the largest displayed trade, built as a three-leg call structure across the 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28 expirations. The trader bought 4,131 contracts of the 88.0 call expiring 2026-08-28 while also buying two blocks totaling 4,131 contracts of the 82.0 call expiring 2026-08-21, making this a net premium outlay rather than a premium-collection trade. With the stock reference at 83.66, the 88.0 calls were out of the money while the 82.0 calls were in the money, so the structure appears designed as a bullish, time-spread-style directional bet that targets upside participation while positioning around different near-term and later-dated expirations. The fact that the trade was established for a net debit suggests the buyer was willing to pay upfront for upside exposure and timing optionality rather than seeking immediate income.

A short put sale worth $1.70 million was the other major print, involving the sale of 1,440 contracts of the 80.0 put expiring 2026-11-20. With CRCL at 83.66, this strike sat out of the money at execution, and the trade carries a clearly bullish or at least constructive stance: the seller is collecting premium while expressing confidence that the stock can remain above 80.0 into expiration, or is willing to accept assignment at an effective lower entry level if shares weaken. Overall large-trade sentiment was decisively bullish, with $3.70 million in bullish flow versus $0.00 million in bearish flow. The tone of the block activity points to a market that is leaning positive on CRCL, as the largest order was a net-debit call combination aimed at upside exposure and the second-largest was an out-of-the-money put sale consistent with premium collection on a stable-to-rising outlook.

Unusual Options Activity

$Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ closed at $251.01, rising 5.79%. Large options trades were dominated by a $1.85 million net-credit synthetic long, contributing to a $14.03 million net bullish imbalance. The session’s bulk activity featured two institutional-scale structures: a long-dated synthetic long through June 2027, and an 8-leg calendar-style call combination into August 2026.

Options Indicators

MRVL’s implied volatility stands at 85.29%, and with an IV percentile of 73.71%, current volatility is in the elevated range, indicating that options are priced expensively relative to their own recent history. At the same time, the IV/HV ratio of 0.88 suggests implied volatility is slightly below realized volatility, so while option premiums are rich on a percentile basis, they are not excessively stretched versus the stock’s actual recent movement. Overall, this points to a market still assigning a high premium to MRVL options, though not at an extreme disconnect from underlying realized volatility.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 2.41.

Large Trades

A bullish synthetic long worth a $1.85 million net credit was the largest featured trade, built by selling 1,800 June 17, 2027 $200.00 puts and buying 1,500 June 17, 2027 $400.00 calls. With MRVL referenced at $251.01, the short put strike sat out of the money while the long call strike was also out of the money, creating a classic synthetic long structure that expresses upside conviction with leveraged directional exposure. Because it was established for a net credit, the trader was effectively being paid to take on a bullish position, suggesting strong confidence that shares can remain above the put strike and potentially appreciate materially over the longer-dated horizon.

A $695.00 thousand net credit calendar-style CALL combination followed, structured as an 8-leg cross-expiration call spread package using August 21, 2026 and August 28, 2026 maturities. The trader sold in-the-money $227.50 calls and sold out-of-the-money $265.00 calls, while buying in-the-money $235.00 calls and out-of-the-money $255.00 calls, creating a layered time-spread and vertical-spread hybrid. Established for a net credit, the strategy appears aimed at premium collection while shaping exposure around a defined price zone into late August 2026, likely reflecting a volatility and positioning play rather than a pure outright directional bet.

Overall, large-trade sentiment was clearly bullish, with total bullish flow of $15.61 million versus bearish flow of $1.58 million, leaving a net bullish imbalance of $14.03 million. The directional conclusion is decisively positive: the flow was dominated by the synthetic long, which is an explicitly bullish structure, while the second trade was a credit-based multi-leg call package more consistent with tactical premium harvesting and position management than outright downside speculation. Taken together, the bulk order activity points to institutional traders maintaining a constructive view on MRVL, with the strongest conviction concentrated in upside-oriented longer-dated exposure.

Strategy Reference

For premium sellers aligned with the bullish flow, an out-of-the-money put credit spread such as selling the June 2027 $200.00 put against buying the June 2027 $185.00 put can define risk while collecting elevated premium without committing to the full margin requirement of a naked short put.

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