To The Moon

Hello. On Monday the chip chain was sold from end to end.

$Micron Technology(MU)$ closed down 5.83 per cent at US$910.43, $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ fell 6.45 per cent, $SK hynix(SKHY)$ 4.92 per cent, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 3.49 per cent, $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ 3.27 per cent and $Intel(INTC)$ 3.12 per cent, while the optical name $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ dropped 13.77 per cent. $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$fell 7.83 per cent.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ itself fell 2.91 per cent, and it reports after Wednesday's close.

The two that buy the chips closed higher: $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ up 1.66 per cent and Alphabet 0.83 per cent.

The indices barely moved — $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.28 per cent and $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 0.29 per cent, while $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ fell 1.00 per cent. That gap says this was not a broad flight to safety but chip weightings dragging the index down.

The trigger came from memory's own supply side. A Chinese memory rival listed, and Barron's put Micron's fall down to competitive concerns; there was also a report about CXMT and Apple, though one analyst said the pre-market reaction to it was an overreaction.

Samsung fell 9 per cent that day and took the memory chain with it. $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ fell 2.3 per cent, with coverage describing confidence in AI chips as having suddenly cracked.

The macro pushed the same way: coverage attributed the day's technology losses to remarks from Trump and Bessent, and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ was being sold ahead of its results.

But nothing arrived on the demand side. No figure that day said memory was no longer short or that compute demand had slowed.

What changed was positioning. Reports say big hedge funds have started cutting $Micron Technology(MU)$ after a 255 per cent run, under headlines about smart money leaving memory stocks; another said Wall Street is rotating out of this year's biggest winners.

So what was sold on Monday was not the fundamentals but the position. Results and the central bank conference fall in the same week, and whatever has run hardest gets taken down first.

$Alibaba(BABA)$ offered a sharper contrast. Sunday's HK$80 billion discounted placement diluted existing holders, and on Monday the US line slipped 0.73 per cent while the Hong Kong line rose 0.71 per cent; it is at HK$113.30 intraday today.

Then the insiders stepped in. Chairman Joseph Tsai bought 720,000 shares for about US$10.29 million and chief executive Wu Yongming bought 350,000 for about US$4.98 million — roughly US$15.3 million between them, on the first day after the placement.

Michael Burry had sold before it. His phrasing is unkind and accurate: issuing shares is now its new paradigm.

The same day Alibaba released a new AI video model — raising US$10 billion with one hand and showing you where it goes with the other.

On one side, executives buying with their own money. On the other, a short seller saying the company now lives by issuing stock. Both are true. The disagreement is only about how long that money takes to become cloud revenue.

$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ reported before Monday's open, another case of beating and falling anyway. Earnings per share beat by about 5.2 per cent, but revenue missed by about 2.1 per cent, second-quarter revenue growth slowed to 8 per cent, and profit fell under heavy reinvestment. The shares rose intraday on the beat and still closed down 1.48 per cent.

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ fell 3.83 per cent. Half of the pressure was sentiment: two notes landed side by side, one arguing Xpeng's second quarter made it the better choice, the other saying SpaceX is Tesla's only hope.

If the market really treats an unlisted company as a carmaker's only hope, that says the pricing of the car business is already cautious. SpaceX itself fell 1.44 per cent on Monday.

$Strategy(MSTR)$ also closed higher, up 2.83 per cent. Bitcoin has risen about 24 per cent in this move, taking its coin position from a loss into profit, and it announced another US$2 billion raise to keep buying.

That structure is an amplifier while the coin price rises and a double hit when it falls, because the financing side and the price come at you together.

The week's fuses are packed close. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ reports after Wednesday's close; Jackson Hole runs from 27 to 29 August, with the market framing it as Warsh and Bessent meeting head-on, where the monetary stance and the debt-issuance approach have to be settled; July PCE lands in the same stretch; and Marvell reports after Thursday's close.

What was sold on Monday was whatever had run hardest. What was left standing was the group that does not have to build its own chips and still gets the AI benefit. The difference is not whose business is better. It is whose price has not yet been lifted to the point where it has to deliver first.

The above is personal analysis, not investment advice.

💬 【Talking Point】

Alibaba's chairman and chief executive bought about US$15.3 million of shares the day after a discounted placement diluted holders, while Michael Burry had already sold, saying that issuing shares is now the company's new paradigm. Whose read would you take?

💰 【Bounty】

Drop your view in the comments and there are coins in it for you! 🎁

🔔 Better shared than saved — tag a friend and split the coins!