I would wait for the print rather than front-run it. Broadcom's AI story is clearly real: Q2 AI semiconductor revenue hit $10.8bn, +143% YoY, and management guided Q3 to $16bn. But the market already knows that. The real hurdle is whether those huge orders translate into durable margins and higher FY27 guidance.
The heavier AI mix itself is expected to compress gross margin towards 74%, while Broadcom explicitly warns that custom accelerators and AI systems carry lower gross margins.
The Google-Marvell threat also looks more medium-term than immediate, with Marvell saying the Google deal becomes much more significant only in FY29.
So my trigger is not simply "$16bn AI revenue achieved". I want $16bn+, resilient margins and, most importantly, an upgrade or stronger evidence behind the $100bn+ FY27 AI target. After last quarter's 12.6% post-earnings fall despite a beat, confirmation looks worth paying slightly more for.
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- HaroldAnderson·14:02Why pay up for confirmation when the last beat still got Broadcom smoked 12.6%? If margin guidance wobbles even a little, the setup still looks heavy.LikeReport
- MurrayBulwer·14:02Gross margin is the swing factor here. AI mix matters, but software mix and operating leverage probably decide whether that FY27 target gets real support.LikeReport