To The Moon

1.Live Review Introduction

Review Live >>

Tiger Brokers livestream hosted by Esther, featuring Dr. Franklin Wu, Quantitative Researcher at a financial institution in Shanghai. Closing out the session, Franklin covered how (and when) leveraged ETFs fit into an AI/semiconductor trade, laid out three scenarios for September, and took audience questions.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the guest speaker and do not represent the official views of Tiger Brokers or its affiliates. This content is strictly for education and discussion purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

Catch up on the full recap series

• Live Recap 1: A Hawkish Jackson Hole, the "Bessent Put," and Why Tech Is Watching the 30-Year

• Live Recap 2: Why Semiconductors Are Still the "Hard Currency" of the AI Trade

• Live Recap 3: Turning a Bullish View Into a Trade — Technicals, QQQ and SPCX Case Studies

2.SOXL and TQQQ: 3× Daily Does Not Mean 3× Long-Term

$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ targets ~300% of the daily return of the NYSE Semiconductor Index; $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ targets ~300% of the Nasdaq-100's daily return. Franklin's key point: daily resetting means path dependence — his example showed a 3× ETF going +15% then -15% ends near -2.25%, not flat, because the second move compounds off a different base. In the live Q&A, he suggested rough position limits of under ~20% of portfolio for TQQQ and under ~10% for SOXL, given SOXL's higher volatility, and noted single-stock leveraged ETFs are relatively safer only when tied to large, liquid names.

3.September Outlook: Three Scenarios, Not One Forecast

Rather than one bold call, Franklin laid out a base case (range-bound market, selective winners), a bull case (lower yields plus earnings validation, supporting short-term $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$/ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ upside), and a risk case (yields surge again, AI trade cools — calling for reduced leverage and waiting for a VIX reset).

4.Four Opportunity Buckets for September

Franklin grouped potential September opportunities into four buckets — core AI semiconductors ( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$/ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$/ $Broadcom(AVGO)$/ $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$), optics & networking ( $Lumentum(LITE)$/ $Corning(GLW)$/ $Arista Networks(ANET)$/ $Coherent(COHR)$), power & data centers ( $Vistra Energy Corp.(VST)$/ $Constellation Energy Corp(CEG)$/ $Eaton Corp PLC(ETN)$/ $Vertiv Holdings LLC(VRT)$), and short-term leveraged ETFs ( $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$/ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$) — with his selection rule: only trade what you can explain, including why it should rise and what would prove you wrong.

5.Risk Checklist: Strong Growth Doesn't Mean Low Risk

Six risks Franklin flagged heading into September: rate risk, capex risk, leverage risk, earnings risk, Hormuz/oil risk, and liquidity risk. His closing line on this slide: "you can be bullish on AI, but never let a grand narrative override a specific stop."

6.Q&A Highlights

• On memory/Korea exposure: Franklin still sees upside in memory names, but at a slower pace than H1 2026, since Korean-market leverage has been flushed out and the memory shortage persists.

• On $Broadcom(AVGO)$'s recent weakness: tied to concerns $Alphabet(GOOGL)$'s in-house TPU development could reduce reliance on $Broadcom(AVGO)$.

• On single-stock leveraged ETFs: more reasonable as an addition when linked to large, liquid names, since the underlying's own volatility is somewhat bounded by broader market moves.

• On position sizing for leveraged ETFs: roughly under 20% of portfolio for $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$, under 10% for $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$.

Closing Takeaway

Franklin's four-step playbook — macro check, industry validation, technical entry, risk control — closes the loop from the top of the session. His parting message: you don't need to predict every move, you just need to keep one wrong trade from becoming an expensive lesson.

7.Risk Reminder

Leveraged ETFs and options involve substantial risk, including amplified losses and volatility decay. Viewers without sufficient foundational knowledge are advised to complete education modules before initiating live positions.

8.Post-Event Resources

Follow Dr. Franklin Wu's recap and future updates on @TBlive and @老实人谈美股 on Tiger Community. The full livestream replay is available on the Tiger Trade app.