I would wait on the regulator before paying 350x for the scaling story. Cybercab carrying real passengers without a wheel or pedals is unquestionably a milestone, but 45 vehicles prove technical viability, not economics.
Waymo currently has the stronger evidence: autonomous rides across 14 cities and expansion into three more markets at once. Tesla’s upside is potentially much larger if its camera-only system and owner-operated fleet can scale without Waymo’s infrastructure intensity. But that is precisely what the valuation already assumes.
For me, the next Tesla KPI is not another demo or even miles driven. It is how quickly Cybercab can scale from dozens to thousands while maintaining safety and clearing NHTSA scrutiny. Until then, Waymo has the deployment lead while Tesla has the scalability thesis.
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