๐ Four trading days this week, three of them carry inflation data. Labor Day closes markets Monday. Thursday stacks PPI before the open with Oracle and Adobe earnings after the close. Friday brings August CPI at 8:30am ET, the last full inflation read before the Fed's September 16 decision.
The mechanics: PPI measures wholesale prices, so a hot print gives an early tell on where CPI lands the next morning. Together they're a two-day inflation stress test squeezed into one week, right before Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC meet. CME FedWatch currently prices 59% odds of a 25bp hike, up from a near coin flip three weeks ago.
Oracle and Adobe reporting the same night matters beyond earnings season noise. They're proxies for opposite ends of the AI trade, infrastructure buildout versus software pricing power. Watch whether Friday's number moves the odds before positioning locks in for the 16th.
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