While some analysts predict a quick correction, the structural realities of the current energy market point to one conclusion: crude oil prices are fundamentally positioned to keep rising.We have moved past a temporary shock into a prolonged supply squeeze. The escalation of the US-Iran conflict and intense maritime disruptions have severely bottlenecked the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. These are not minor delays—billions of barrels of Gulf output are heavily restricted or entirely shut in.Furthermore, the global economy has lost its safety net. Buffers have eroded, with oil inventories plummeting by hundreds of millions of barrels. The market is running incredibly thin, meaning even minor operational disruptions trigger violent upward spikes.This is why institutions like Goldman Sachs and HSBC have aggressively lifted their forecasts, explicitly warning of a $120-per-barrel reality if supply continues to be choked off. As long as geopolitical tension dictates global shipping lanes, the path of least resistance for oil remains steeply upward.
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