AI and surging memory-chip demand have shifted emerging-market leadership toward Taiwan and South Korea. With semiconductor valuations climbing, there's a real debate over whether this rally is still supported by fundamentals or getting more speculative.
Andrew Dalrymple at Aubrey Capital Management points to earnings as the key justification. He does see some signs of excess, including leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, but the underlying memory cycle still looks unusually strong. Earnings are growing fast on rising memory demand, while new capacity remains expensive and slow to build.
The AI infrastructure buildout could also make this cycle more durable than past memory upswings, which were tied to shorter PC, smartphone, and gaming cycles. AI needs much larger capital investment and longer construction timelines, so supply can't catch up with demand as quickly.
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