To The Moon

One stock I’m watching is $Nike(NKE)$  .

The setup is pretty simple: the world’s biggest sportswear brand has been struggling, and the market has become increasingly impatient.

Nike reports fiscal Q1 earnings on October 1, with consensus around $0.44 EPS and $11.3B revenue. 

But the interesting part isn’t the earnings estimate.

It’s whether Nike can finally show signs that the turnaround is working.

👟 China is the big question.

Greater China sales fell 17% on a constant-currency basis in Nike’s most recent quarter, making the region one of the biggest problems management needs to address. 

🇺🇸 Then there’s North America.

Wholesale revenue has been growing, but that hasn’t translated into overall sales growth. That raises an uncomfortable question: are retailers ordering more Nike products because demand is improving — or because Nike is pushing more inventory through the channel?

And then there’s the brand itself.

Nike doesn’t need to become the next hot tech company.

It needs to get consumers excited about Nike products again.

That’s why this earnings report could be more interesting than the headline EPS number.

I’m watching:

• China sales

• North American demand

• Inventory levels

• Direct-to-consumer growth

• Management’s comments on the turnaround

The stock is already trading near levels not seen in more than a decade, according to StoneX. 

That doesn’t automatically make it cheap.

But it does make the risk/reward conversation very different from the stocks dominating headlines every day.

👀 Is Nike a genuine turnaround opportunity, or does the brand still have more work to do?