$SpaceX(SPCX)$ I asked Grok about the chances that Starship 14 will successfully deploy its payload. Roughly 75-85%, with prediction-market prices around 87% for payload deployment if the flight proceeds as planned.
Starship Flight 14 (Ship 41 + Booster 21) is targeted NET 28 September 2026 from Starbase Pad 2 as the first attempt at a sustained orbit (~275 km, ~6 revolutions, ~10 hours) plus the first operational payload: 26 Starlink V3 satellites via the PEZ dispenser. Three of those satellites carry cameras to image the heat shield. No tower catch is planned; both stages are expected to splash down.
Why the odds look reasonably high? Recent ship performance has been strong. On Flight 13 (July 2026), Ship 40 completed a full-duration ascent, deployed all 20 Starlink V3 satellites on a suborbital trajectory, performed an in-space Raptor relight, survived reentry, and made an intact soft splashdown.
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