To The Moon

After the US close this Wednesday,$Micron Technology(MU)$ reports Q4 FY2026. Analysts are forecasting ~$51.5B in revenue, up 355% YoY, and adjusted EPS of about $31.8, up 1,004% YoY. On valuation, MU trades at a P/E of 23.66 — well off the extreme highs seen in 2024, but still sitting around the middle of its historical range.

Breaking down the revenue, Micron's business splits into three segments: DRAM, NAND, and others. DRAM is the main growth engine, driven by AI server demand — Q4 revenue from DRAM is expected to jump 325% YoY. NAND is also surging on both price and volume, with Q4 revenue up 446% YoY. DRAM alone is expected to contribute ~$38.2B, roughly 75% of total revenue. This whole upcycle is being powered by AI compute demand — both product lines are firing at the same time, which is what's driving Micron's profits and valuation higher.

What's interesting is that MU is no longer just another memory stock. It's now ~4.8% of the Nasdaq 100, one of the six heaviest weights, and it alone contributed over a quarter of the index's gains in the first half of this year. That means when Micron reports on Sep 30, it's not just a Micron story — it moves QQQ and the whole Nasdaq.

That said, the stock is already up ~269% year-to-date, and the price has already priced in a lot of optimism. It's also down about 16% from its highs, and at least one analyst has already downgraded it to hold. The market will be watching two numbers: first, HBM revenue share — how much of Micron's growth is actually coming from AI; and second, customer prepayments — whether downstream customers are really locking in supply. These two figures will tell us how much more the market is willing to pay for this story, and they'll be the real signal on whether this memory supercycle is peaking.