鄭煤價格反彈？
成本上，鄭煤(809, 7.00, 0.87%)價格反彈，上漲12%，5月合約盤面煤制甲醇(2908, 1.00, 0.03%)利潤爲380元/噸，但現貨煤制甲醇利潤虧損較大，爲-530元/噸，成本上在現貨端存支撐；供應方面，產量與開工率回升，但2月檢修結束的產能不多，開工率回升幅度較少，另外，1月實際進口量低於預期，供應端壓力不大，影響中性偏空；庫存方面，進口放緩，需求向好，提貨順暢，港口庫存與企業庫存均下降，庫存影響偏多；需求方面，家電、房地產較弱，甲醇終端的需求不佳，但MTO開工率近一個月大幅回升，下游的短期需求回暖，需求端影響偏多。庫存不高，短期需求強於供應，甲醇短期基本面中性偏好。技術上，短期偏強運行。估計甲醇短期走勢以偏強震盪爲主。
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