DBS Is About 14% Away From My 4.7% Dividend Hurdle, UOB 27% and OCBC 67%
DBS Is About 14% Away From My 4.7% Dividend Hurdle, UOB 27% and OCBC 67%
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Sun 4 Oct 2026 | Longform
The Numbers
At the 2 October close, trailing dividends gave DBS a 4.12% yield, UOB 3.69% and OCBC 2.81%, all below my 4.7% Minimum Yield Hurdle. Measured as the rise in dividend per share each bank would need, DBS is about 14% away, UOB about 27% and OCBC about 67%. OCBC's S$0.16 special dividend is excluded. The ranking depends on one judgment. DBS pays a recurring S$0.15 capital return each quarter, and without it DBS moves from about 14% away to about 41%, past UOB's 27%. DBS's Ledger entry of 6 August 2026 is Zone 4+, built on a 4.23% yield at S$75.10. At Friday's close the shortfall to the hurdle is 58 basis points, past the 50 basis point line for the suffix, so the Ledger refresh is pending.
My Personal Take
Yesterday I wrote that OCBC's 3.3% was at least two payments with different chances of returning. Today's question is the same one from the other side. DBS's capital return has arrived every quarter in the window, and I count it because management has said it intends to continue. A board controls it, though, and I cannot call it settled. It took me a while to see that the order of the three banks hangs on that one choice. If DBS changed the programme, I would drop it from the count. 🦖
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- chizzoo·11:22DBS's quarterly capital return is the swing factor here, and counting it with caution feels fair. That 67% gap for OCBC looks more like a conservative ordinary dividend policy than just the special payout effectLikeReport