To The Moon

1️⃣ Why am I making this trade now?

The data center and neocloud space is currently facing a "perfect storm" of negative sentiment—rising Treasury yields, Gartner's headline-grabbing report predicting AI CapEx doom, and CIFR's $850M convertible note offering triggering heavy institutional arbitrage shorting. 

However, I believe the market is mispricing CIFR by lumping it in with GPU-heavy speculators. CIFR is a power/infrastructure landlord with long-term hyperscaler backstops (AWS, Google-backed contracts). This current multi-week dump feels like a classic flush-out driven by convertible arbitrage hedging and short-seller fear-mongering. By rolling my position out via a diagonal spread at an $18.0/$14.0 strike, I am kicking the can down the road, lowering my risk, and locking in extra time for the stock to absorb this supply overhang before the eventual rebound.

2️⃣ What’s my plan from here?

What I'm watching: The completion of the convertible note settlement, short interest stabilization, and updates on power energization at Barber Lake / Black Pearl.

When I'll hold/add: I will hold this diagonal position through the short-term noise to capture time decay on the short leg while maintaining upside exposure on the long leg. If CIFR retests multi-month support levels and begins forming a base, I may look to sell shorter-dated calls against it to further reduce cost basis.

Reassessment trigger: I will reassess if there are structural contract cancellations from key hyperscaler tenants or significant delays pushing HPC lease revenue past 2027.