The market is confusing short-term weakness with deteriorating fundamentals. ASML reported €11.66 billion in Q3 revenue, a 57.5% gross margin, and expects full-year sales of €44–45 billion. Customers are already discussing orders for 2029 and 2030, suggesting AI demand will endure.
Morgan Stanley is also impressive, with equity-trading revenue surging 41% and wealth-management revenue reaching a record $9.07 billion. However, trading income is cyclical, and strong quarterly results may not last.
My conclusion: ASML offers the stronger long-term advantage. Its EUV technology is extraordinarily difficult to replicate, creating a powerful competitive moat. But a great company isn't automatically a great investment at any price.
I'd scale in gradually rather than chase a falling market. The opportunity comes when fear creates a discount—not simply when a stock turns red.
@Tiger_Earnings [得意]
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