What still supports the bull case
1. Profitability is genuinely strong, not just growth. Q2 2026 (latest full filing) shows gross margin of 90.9% , net margin of 42.89% and ROE of 23.87% . TTM PE is 41.9x and forward PE 43.7x — versus a forward-PE history averaging 42.3x, so the multiple is roughly at its own norm, not at a bubble extreme.
2. Revenue keeps compounding through product expansion. Q3 2026 revenue hit a record $1.424B, +11.8% YoY , slightly above the $1.422B consensus, with net deposits of $16B. The key point: crypto revenue fell 55% YoY and app crypto notional volume fell 48%, yet total revenue still grew — options, equities and event/prediction contracts filled the hole
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. That diversification is the core of the long thesis.
3. Growth quality is improving even as the headline decelerates. Revenue growth was 32.25% in the latest annual measure, down from 100% earlier — the law of large numbers. But net income growth re-accelerated to 45.34% and total assets grew 60%, i.e. the balance sheet and client assets are still scaling fast.
4. Sell-side is still constructive. 33 analysts: 21.2% strong buy, 60.6% buy, 15.2% hold, 3.0% sell — mean rating "BUY". The mean target is $133.99 (range $55–$170), about +41.7% above $94.56; the historical mean-target upside has averaged ~21%, so targets are currently set wide, reflecting real disagreement rather than consensus confidence.
5. Positioning is not crowded. Short interest is 36.5M shares (settlement 2026-10-15), days-to-cover 1.89 — modest. The stock sits at the 35.7th percentile of its 52-week range, 37.2% below the $150.47 high and 48.9% above the $63.52 low. The de-rating has already happened: -15.95% over one month, -18.64% over 20 sessions.
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