Microsoft makes me more confident that AI investment can generate attractive returns, but Alphabet makes me more selective about assuming every AI capex dollar will do so. Strong demand alone is no longer enough.
Amazon is the next report I would watch most closely. AWS sits at the centre of the same debate. If AWS growth accelerates while Amazon maintains healthy cash generation despite rising infrastructure spending, it would strengthen the argument that Microsoft’s result is part of a broader AI monetisation trend rather than a company-specific exception.
For me: AI demand → revenue → margins → FCF. The further that chain progresses, the stronger the investment case.
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