We think Anthropic is in good health today, and that the next two years decide whether it stays that way, as the computing bills arrive faster than the revenue that has to pay them.
Watch for “buy the rumour, sell the news”. Chip stocks had a rough October. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 19% from 6 October to 22 October, on worries about how much is being spent on AI. Then the filing came out and the index jumped about 3% in a day, with Nvidia and Broadcom up about 3% each. The excitement can fade just as fast once trading starts. A listing this size also needs buyers, and some funds will sell other AI stocks to make room for ANT. Remember Facebook. It listed at US$38 in May 2012, fell below US$20 by August, and slid further when the first lock-up ended. We wouldn’t chase AI stocks just because of the filing buzz.
Judge the price, not the story. Anthropic itself expects its growth rate to fall, and says it may fall faster than it expects. So whether ANT is a good buy comes down to the price, which isn’t in the filing yet. Here is a quick way to judge it when it comes out. April to June revenue times four is about US$46 billion a year. At a US$1 trillion valuation, investors would pay about 22 times that. At US$2 trillion, about 43 times.
For shareholders, this is a risk with no ceiling. If something goes badly wrong and no insurer will pay, the bill lands on the company, and so on its owners. It isn’t only about Anthropic either. The filing warns that a serious incident at any AI lab could bring a public backlash and sweeping new rules for everyone.
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