AMD reports tomorrow: a beat doesn't mean it goes up
AMD reports Q3 tomorrow night (US time), so here's the thing i keep reminding myself before every print.
the last 5 times AMD reported:
- Q2 2026: beat by 3.1%, stock -7.0% the next day
- Q1 2026: beat by 5.9%, stock +18.6%
- Q4 2025: beat by 16.0%, stock -17.3%
- Q3 2025: beat by 2.4%, stock +2.5%
- Q2 2025: missed by 0.5%, stock -6.4%
so 4 beats, and the stock only went up after 2 of them. last quarter they beat, raised guidance, and still fell 7% because gross margin came in 2 points light.
if i do buy on an earnings print, these are my rules: size it like a lottery ticket, use swing-trading money not long-term money, no averaging down if it goes wrong, and write the exit down before going in. but AMD is already at nearly 10% of my portfolio, so i'll probably not buy before earnings this time. will consider loading if it dips further though...
are you holding AMD through the print, or sitting it out?
i wrote the full breakdown (plus how i got my DeepSeek call right for the wrong reason) on my substack: https://thewontoninvestor.substack.com/p/everyone-pivoted-to-ai-i-still-hold?r=g6v1z
disclosure: i hold AMD. not financial advice.
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