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AI的炒作似乎要到頭了,微軟會跌多少?什麼價格接盤合適?

@期权小班长
有人600萬重倉put了微軟: 買$MSFT 20230721 275.0 PUT$ 賣$MSFT 20230721 205.0 PUT$ 嚴格來說這是一組熊市看跌價差策略,買入行權價更高的put,賣出同樣到期日行權價更低的put。 這套策略很有意思。對於目前震盪上行的觸頂行情最佳策略其實是sell call,上行猶猶豫豫,下跌遙遙無期,此時buy put並長線持有會一直損耗時間價值。但這位交易者還是義無反顧選擇了買入平價put(275),到期日選擇7月,說明他也對長線作戰做好了準備。 但作爲價差策略另一條腿(205)行權價離的着實有點遠,基本起不到對衝賺取價差的作用,只是相當於減少時間損失。所以這套策略其實偏向於純做空。 不過我認爲微軟真跌到205,這位交易者可能很願意接盤。去年10月微軟股價低點是213,而250周均線價格是202,205接手真心不貴。 所以和一般意義上的熊市看跌價差策略不同,這套策略更偏向做空,但和普通做空比性價比更高。 截圖下方有一組call大單好像在唱反調$MSFT 20230217 257.5 CALL$ ,其實這是平倉單,也證明短期急漲趨勢結束了。 谷歌這幾天一直在跌,現在更適合sell put:$GOOGL 20230324 85.0 PUT$ ,行權價選擇近期低點,不放心選擇80~83都可以。
AI的炒作似乎要到頭了,微軟會跌多少?什麼價格接盤合適?

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