October Review
6 November 2026 / Written on SQ607
Not much to say about October — took a brutal 30% drawdown that pretty much wiped out all my gains from earlier this year.
The AI semiconductor hardware positions I added back in July rallied nicely through August and September, but October completely hammered them. My heavy holdings in Intel and Marvell ended up being among the absolute worst performers. Intel issued weak forward guidance, while Marvell announced a high-premium acquisition that heavily diluted shareholders.
I did think about trimming, but the selloff happened way too fast. On top of that, late October and early November were a blur of back-to-back client meetings and non-stop drinking. By the time my head cleared, cutting losses didn't really make sense anymore.
At the end of the day, this is on me. My risk worksheet was supposed to flag this early in October, but I was just too busy and forgot to update it, missing the warning window.
Two things I actually got right:
a. Taking assignment on all CSPs. Cash reserves are solid, so I didn't have to touch leverage. I’m comfortable holding more Intel and Marvell anyway — the core thesis is still intact, it’s just going to take longer to play out.
b. Intuitive SQQQ hedge. Even while completely burnt out at the end of October, I bought SQQQ on instinct without overthinking position sizing (honestly, I was in no state to crunch numbers). The logic was simple: buying puts was way too expensive in this high-IV environment, and I’d just exit once QQQ reclaimed its 5-day moving average. That quick move saved me a bit during the sharp drop last night.
Heading back to Singapore soon. Mentally I'm fine, but physically totally wiped out.
Final thought: If you expect a stock to double, you’ve got to be prepared for it to drop by half.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
