# What Friday’s Bounce Left Unfinished
I keep coming back to where the Nasdaq finished on Friday. QQQ gained ground, yet its whole day fit inside Thursday’s range and it closed in the lower half. If I’d looked only at Friday’s percentage change, I’d have missed how much work buyers still had to do. That’s where my Monday night watchlist starts. I’m using it to decide what deserves a closer look before I consider an order.
On the S&P 500 chart, the late-July low sits close to the 200-day moving average. I can mark that area before the open. The harder part is deciding what I’d want to see there. Heavy selling on busy volume would get my attention, but I’d still want to know where prices finished that day. A close near the low would leave me with a different impression from a recovery that held into the bell.
I’ll watch the VIX alongside SPY if the index makes a fresh low. If the VIX peaks below its earlier high, protection would be drawing a more muted response on the second decline. That would make me look more closely for buyers. I’d be more interested in a rebound that lifts a broad group of stocks than one that depends on a couple of large names.
Friday also gave me a reason to put semiconductors and consumer staples side by side. Chip stocks bounced while staples fell. I have only one session to go on. If money keeps returning to chips, I want to see which of the recent leaders give up ground. I’d hesitate to call a stock safe just because it held up during Thursday’s selling. I also know what I’d be risking if I chased the decline in chips. A rally could undo a fresh short in a hurry, even with the longer trend still pointing down.
Fastenal is the individual name I want to follow. Its shares have traded in tight ranges on several time frames near their previous highs. If FAST can hold that area while the broader market tests its lows, I’ll have a reason to come back to the chart. If it slips with everything else, I can cross it off for the night. At the close I want to check where FAST finished relative to its old highs and how much of any morning bounce survived.
*Options involve substantial risk and may not be suitable for every investor.*
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