To The Moon

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$  

One of the most expensive mistakes an investor can make is assuming that a stock has already had its big run simply because its price has doubled.

I learned an important lesson watching $MRNA(Moderna)$.

On August 18, I watched Moderna trading around $60. When the extraordinary rally began the following day, the share price rapidly moved through $120 and continued climbing.

My immediate reaction was that I had missed the opportunity.

After all, how could I justify buying a stock that had already doubled?

I decided to stay on the sidelines.

But the market had other ideas.

The rally continued, with Moderna eventually reaching approximately $175 during that first explosive session. After an initial pullback, the stock recovered momentum and subsequently approached the $200 mark.

What initially looked like an opportunity that had passed turned into a much bigger market revaluation.

And I was watching from the sidelines.

The lesson: A stock doubling doesn’t mean the opportunity is over.

Looking back, my mistake wasn’t necessarily failing to buy on the first day.

It was allowing the percentage gain to influence my investment decision more than the underlying fundamentals.

I was anchored to the old $60 share price, rather than asking a more important question:

Has something fundamentally changed that could justify a much higher valuation?

In Moderna’s case, the answer was potentially yes.

The major catalyst was its successful Phase 3 trial of an individualised mRNA cancer vaccine, developed in partnership with Merck and designed to treat melanoma alongside Keytruda.

This was significant because it offered investors something beyond Moderna’s established COVID-19 vaccine business: the possibility of becoming a major player in cancer treatment.

The market wasn’t simply buying the same company at a higher price. It was beginning to reassess what that company might become.

Three investing lessons I’m taking away

1. Don’t confuse a higher share price with an exhausted opportunity.

A stock that rises 100% can still have substantial upside if its earnings potential, addressable market or long-term growth prospects have been materially reassessed.

The previous share price is not necessarily its fair value.

2. Understand the catalyst before deciding the rally is over.

Was the move driven by speculation, short covering or a temporary market frenzy?

Or has the company delivered genuinely transformative news?

These are very different situations.

A successful clinical trial, a major technological breakthrough or a significant change in earnings expectations can fundamentally alter an investment thesis.

3. Don’t let fear of buying too late become a permanent barrier.

There is a difference between chasing an overheated stock and refusing to consider an investment simply because it has already moved substantially.

Sometimes, waiting for a perfect entry price means missing an opportunity altogether.

That doesn’t mean buying blindly. Position sizing, valuation, risk management and patience remain essential, particularly with volatile biotechnology stocks.

The bigger picture

I don’t know whether Moderna’s rally will ultimately prove sustainable, or whether the market has become too optimistic about its future pipeline.

There are still clinical, regulatory, commercialisation and valuation risks to consider.

But the experience has changed how I think about momentum and opportunity.

Instead of automatically dismissing a stock because it has doubled, I want to understand WHY it has doubled, whether the original investment thesis has changed, and whether the company’s future prospects justify its new valuation.

My biggest takeaway: Don’t anchor yourself to the price a stock used to trade at. Anchor your decision to what the business could be worth in the future.

I missed the initial MRNA opportunity because I thought the move was over.

Next time, I’ll remember that a stock doubling might not be the end of the story. Sometimes, it’s the beginning of an entirely new one.

Have you ever watched a stock double, decided you were too late, and then watched it double again?

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