What I Missed in the Nasdaq Close
Thursday’s Nasdaq close looked quiet until I looked at how many stocks had fallen. The index had given up only a little, yet declining stocks comfortably outnumbered advancing ones. That changed what I wanted to watch on Friday night in Singapore. QQQ and the chip stocks are on my watchlist. The question in my notebook is how many stocks can hold a rebound alongside them.
I started with QQQ on two charts. The weekly chart showed a strong recovery, even as Treasury yields and the dollar rose. On the daily chart, QQQ was still below its falling 21-day average. The rally had brought it back to an area where buyers had supported it before the selloff. Buyers who liked that area on the way down have had a chance to see it from the other side. I want to see whether they’ll still be there on a pullback after QQQ gets above it. A strong week alone can’t answer that.
The semiconductor chart gave me a recent example. It closed above an old low, then slipped back below it on the next close. If I’d looked only at the first of those two days, I could easily have written “support recovered” and moved on. Both closes belong in the same note. For Friday I’ll leave room beside the level to record where the session ends. That should help me resist the temptation to decide what a move means halfway through it.
ASML and Applied Materials tested the same habit from the short side. Both had bounced into areas where sellers could reappear. I could see the appeal of watching for weakness, but an abrupt rebound in the chip group could lift both names together. I’d like to see whether either one struggles on a day when the group is doing well. That would tell me more about the individual stock than a decline on a day when everything falls.
After the producer price figures, I’ll check how QQQ handles that old support area and whether more stocks are advancing with it. If the index and the rest of the market still tell different stories at the close, that difference is what I want to remember from Friday.
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