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家豪Lee
2023-03-23

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The Fed rate hike 25 basis points as scheduled, and the resolution statement hints that the rate hike cycle is nearing the end

决议声明删除了“持续加息是适宜的”措辞，改为“一些额外的政策紧缩可能是适当的”，被市场解读为鸽派论调。“点阵图”仍维持今年底利率预期在5.1%不变，今年或只能再加息一次。声明称美国银行业健康、有韧性，

The Fed rate hike 25 basis points as scheduled, and the resolution statement hints that the rate hike cycle is nearing the end

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The \"dot plot\" still keeps the interest rate forecast unchanged at 5.1% by the end of this year, and it may only be rate hike again this year. The statement said that the U.S. banking industry is healthy and resilient, but many failures will drag down economic growth.</b>On Wednesday, March 22, the Federal Reserve issued a rate hike of 25 basis points as scheduled, raising the benchmark Federal Funds rate to the target range of 4.75%-5%, the highest level since the end of 2007, on the eve of the financial crisis.</p><p>This is the ninth consecutive rate hike by the Federal Reserve since March last year and the second consecutive rate hike has slowed to 25 basis points. The market expects that the U.S. rate hike cycle is coming to an end, and interest rate cuts may be started before the end of this year to reduce interest rates to 4.25%-4.5% in response to the economic slowdown.</p><p>The closely watched resolution statement said that the U.S. banking industry is healthy and resilient, but many failures will drag down economic growth.<b>Some analysts said that this resolution statement implies that the rate hike cycle is coming to an end.</b>The statement read:</p><p>\"The Committee will closely monitor future information and assess the impact on monetary policy. The Committee expects that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to obtain a monetary policy stance that is sufficiently restricted to economic growth to bring inflation back to 2% over time.\" The wording differs from previous statements, which indicated that \"ongoing rate hike is appropriate\".</p><p>In response to the recent banking crisis, the statement mentioned:</p><p>\"The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient, and recent developments are likely to tighten credit conditions for households and businesses and put pressure on economic activity, job hiring and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The committee remains highly concerned about inflation risks.\" A \"dot plot\" of Fed officials' interest rate opinions released together shows that interest rates will remain at 5.1% at the end of 2023, maintaining expectations at the end of last year and 4.3% at the end of 2024:</p><p>Federal Funds rate are expected to be 5.1% at the end of 2023 and 5.1% in December. Federal Funds rate is expected to be 4.3% at the end of 2024 and 4.1% in December. Federal Funds rate is expected to be 3.1% at the end of 2025 and 3.1% in December. Long-term Federal Funds rate is expected to be 2.5%, compared with 2.5% in December.<b>Some analysts pointed out that this shows that the Federal Reserve only has room for another rate hike this year.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/111fab0d5436ee43c3c7b28950d9fe85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>In terms of economic forecasts released quarterly, the Federal Reserve lowered its U.S. GDP forecast for the next two years:</p><p>The Federal Reserve lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 0.4%, compared with a 0.5% increase in December last year. The U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2024 was lowered to 1.2%, compared with a 1.6% increase in December last year. The U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 was raised by 1.9%, compared with a 1.8% increase in December last year. U.S. GDP growth, which maintains a longer cycle, is expected to be 1.8%. At the same time, the Federal Reserve further raised its U.S. inflation forecast this year:</p><p>The Federal Reserve raised its PCE inflation forecast for 2023 to 3.3%, compared with 3.1% in December. PCE inflation expectations for 2024 are 2.5%, unchanged from December. The PCE inflation expectation for 2025 is 2.1%, which is the same as in December. The PCE inflation expectation for a longer cycle remains unchanged at 2.0%. After the data was released, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a947c5009c6cfab63e04a0e2564db35e\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"154\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed rate hike 25 basis points as scheduled, and the resolution statement hints that the rate hike cycle is nearing the end</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed rate hike 25 basis points as scheduled, and the resolution statement hints that the rate hike cycle is nearing the end\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-23 02:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The resolution statement deleted the wording \"continued rate hike is appropriate\" and replaced it with \"some additional policy tightening may be appropriate\", which was interpreted by the market as a dovish argument. The \"dot plot\" still keeps the interest rate forecast unchanged at 5.1% by the end of this year, and it may only be rate hike again this year. The statement said that the U.S. banking industry is healthy and resilient, but many failures will drag down economic growth.</b>On Wednesday, March 22, the Federal Reserve issued a rate hike of 25 basis points as scheduled, raising the benchmark Federal Funds rate to the target range of 4.75%-5%, the highest level since the end of 2007, on the eve of the financial crisis.</p><p>This is the ninth consecutive rate hike by the Federal Reserve since March last year and the second consecutive rate hike has slowed to 25 basis points. The market expects that the U.S. rate hike cycle is coming to an end, and interest rate cuts may be started before the end of this year to reduce interest rates to 4.25%-4.5% in response to the economic slowdown.</p><p>The closely watched resolution statement said that the U.S. banking industry is healthy and resilient, but many failures will drag down economic growth.<b>Some analysts said that this resolution statement implies that the rate hike cycle is coming to an end.</b>The statement read:</p><p>\"The Committee will closely monitor future information and assess the impact on monetary policy. The Committee expects that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to obtain a monetary policy stance that is sufficiently restricted to economic growth to bring inflation back to 2% over time.\" The wording differs from previous statements, which indicated that \"ongoing rate hike is appropriate\".</p><p>In response to the recent banking crisis, the statement mentioned:</p><p>\"The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient, and recent developments are likely to tighten credit conditions for households and businesses and put pressure on economic activity, job hiring and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The committee remains highly concerned about inflation risks.\" A \"dot plot\" of Fed officials' interest rate opinions released together shows that interest rates will remain at 5.1% at the end of 2023, maintaining expectations at the end of last year and 4.3% at the end of 2024:</p><p>Federal Funds rate are expected to be 5.1% at the end of 2023 and 5.1% in December. Federal Funds rate is expected to be 4.3% at the end of 2024 and 4.1% in December. Federal Funds rate is expected to be 3.1% at the end of 2025 and 3.1% in December. Long-term Federal Funds rate is expected to be 2.5%, compared with 2.5% in December.<b>Some analysts pointed out that this shows that the Federal Reserve only has room for another rate hike this year.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/111fab0d5436ee43c3c7b28950d9fe85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>In terms of economic forecasts released quarterly, the Federal Reserve lowered its U.S. GDP forecast for the next two years:</p><p>The Federal Reserve lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 0.4%, compared with a 0.5% increase in December last year. The U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2024 was lowered to 1.2%, compared with a 1.6% increase in December last year. The U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 was raised by 1.9%, compared with a 1.8% increase in December last year. U.S. GDP growth, which maintains a longer cycle, is expected to be 1.8%. At the same time, the Federal Reserve further raised its U.S. inflation forecast this year:</p><p>The Federal Reserve raised its PCE inflation forecast for 2023 to 3.3%, compared with 3.1% in December. PCE inflation expectations for 2024 are 2.5%, unchanged from December. The PCE inflation expectation for 2025 is 2.1%, which is the same as in December. The PCE inflation expectation for a longer cycle remains unchanged at 2.0%. After the data was released, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a947c5009c6cfab63e04a0e2564db35e\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"154\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684674\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684674","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143226275","content_text":"决议声明删除了“持续加息是适宜的”措辞，改为“一些额外的政策紧缩可能是适当的”，被市场解读为鸽派论调。“点阵图”仍维持今年底利率预期在5.1%不变，今年或只能再加息一次。声明称美国银行业健康、有韧性，但诸多倒闭事件将拖累经济增长。3月22日周三，美联储如期加息25个基点，令基准的联邦基金利率升至4.75%-5%目标区间，为2007年底、即金融危机爆发前夕以来的最高水平。这是美联储自去年3月以来连续第九次加息，也是连续第二次加息幅度放慢至25个基点。市场预计美国加息周期接近尾声，今年底之前或开启降息令利率降至4.25%-4.5%，以应对经济放缓。备受关注的决议声明称，美国银行业健康、有韧性，但诸多倒闭事件将拖累经济增长。有分析称，这份决议声明暗示加息周期接近尾声，声明写到：“委员会将密切关注未来的信息并评估对货币政策的影响。委员会预计，一些额外的政策紧缩（some additional policy firming）可能是适当的，以便获得对足够限制经济增长的货币政策立场，使通胀随着时间的推移回到2%。”该措辞与之前的声明不同，之前的声明表明“持续加息（ongoing increases）是适宜的”。在回应近期银行业危机时，声明提到：“美国银行体系健全且富有弹性，最近的事态发展可能导致家庭和企业的信贷条件收紧，并对经济活动、就业招聘和通胀造成压力。这些影响的程度是不确定的。委员会仍然高度关注通胀风险。 ”一同发布的美联储官员利率意见“点阵图”显示，其中位数预期是显示，2023年末的利率仍为5.1%，维持去年底的预期不变，2024年底料为4.3%：预计2023年年底的联邦基金利率为5.1%，12月份料为5.1%。预计2024年年底的联邦基金利率为4.3%，12月份料为4.1%。预计2025年年底的联邦基金利率为3.1%，12月份料3.1%。预计长期联邦基金利率预期为2.5%，12月份料为2.5%。有分析指出，这说明今年美联储仅有空间再加息一次。在每季度发布的经济预测方面，美联储下调未来两年美国GDP预期：美联储下调美国2023年GDP增长预期至0.4%，去年12月料增0.5%。下调美国2024年GDP增长预期至1.2%，去年12月料增1.6%。上调美国2025年GDP增长预期1.9%，去年12月料增1.8%。维持更长周期的美国GDP增幅预期在1.8%。同时，美联储进一步上调美国今年通胀率预期：美联储上调2023年PCE通胀预期至3.3%，12月份料为3.1%。2024年PCE通胀预期2.5%，与12月份持平。2025年PCE通胀预期2.1%，与12月份持平维持更长周期的PCE通胀预期在2.0%不变。数据公布后，美股三大股指走高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2378,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}