Estimates for bank earnings have started coming down lately, with the negative revisions trend most pronounced for the regional players. For example, take a look at First Republic, which is currently expected to bring in $1.13 per share on $1.28 billion in revenues in its March quarter release on April 12th. This represents a -43.5% decline in EPS from the year-earlier level on -8.4% lower revenues. In terms of estimate revisions, First Republic’s current $1.13 per share estimate is down from $1.38 two weeks back and $1.66 at the start of January 2023.
Unlike First Republic, estimates for JPMorgan have largely remained stable. JPMorgan is expected to bring in $3.43 per share in earnings on $36.03 billion in revenues, representing year-over-year growth of +30.4% and +17.3%, respectively. The current Zacks Consensus EPS of $3.43 for 2023 Q1 is a hair below the $3.44 level on March 3rd and $3.41 on January 6th.
The contrasting revisions trend for First Republic and JPMorgan notwithstanding, it is reasonable to expect that bank earnings estimates will be under pressure going forward.
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