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华美虎
2023-03-31

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The market will be in for a catastrophe? Take History as a Guide: Fed Rate Cuts Are Not Good!

市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！

The market will be in for a catastrophe? Take History as a Guide: Fed Rate Cuts Are Not Good!

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":659458174,"tweetId":"659458174","gmtCreate":1680217311199,"gmtModify":1680225639699,"author":{"id":3481012429279872,"idStr":"3481012429279872","authorId":3481012429279872,"authorIdStr":"3481012429279872","name":"华美虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069e1f4d34b1cef685e7c8573928fad2","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>nonsense[微笑]&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>nonsense[微笑]&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"nonsense[微笑]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/659458174","repostId":2323678027,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2323678027","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1680170043,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2323678027?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-30 17:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The market will be in for a catastrophe? Take History as a Guide: Fed Rate Cuts Are Not Good!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2323678027","media":"金十数据","summary":"市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！","content":"<html><head></head><body>The market is betting on the Fed's interest rate cut, but taking history as a mirror, the Fed's interest rate cut may be another catastrophe for the market! Michael Lebowitz, an investment analyst and portfolio manager at RIA Advisors, wrote:\"Just because the Fed cut interest rates doesn't mean a bull market is coming,\" Robertwitz said.Equity investors betting on the Fed's policy adjustments may need to rethink their logic.The second-largest bank failure in U.S. history and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>An emergency sale at a steep discount has investors betting that the Fed will pivot. They don't seem to care about the heat and stickiness of inflation, while the Fed remains determined to keep interest rates \"higher for longer\" despite the unfolding crisis.Like Pavlov's dog, investors buy when they hear the bell in a critical moment.If history is any guide, investor conditioning can be harmful.Interest rate cuts are always \"mourning everywhere\"The Federal Reserve has slashed its Federal Funds rate nine times since 1970.The average maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 from the start of each rate cut cycle to the market trough is 27.25%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03a5178e50b7a4dce343ded734f8f37\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"417\"/>The last three declines have all exceeded average, and of the other six experiences, only the 1974-1977 one saw a worse-than-average decline.So,Why have recent pullback/retracement been worse than before 1990?Because before 1990, the Federal Reserve was more active. Therefore, they do not allow interest rates to be significantly higher or lower than the natural growth rate of the economy. The exception is that high inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s forced the Federal Reserve to remain vigilant. Whatever the reason, high interest rates help curb speculative bubbles.The Fed has dominated the low interest rate environment for the past 20 years。 The chart below shows that real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations) have been trending downward for 40 years. From the pandemic until the Federal Reserve began its rate hike in March 2022, 10-year real yields were often negative.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f0eeae55291adb1bc75e929c0c8da3\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"534\"/>When interest rates are at predictably low levels, speculative activity tends to prevail.As we have seen, the speculative behavior generated by the Fed's easing policies in 2020 and 2021 has led conservative bankers and activist hedge funds to take on huge risks. Because without investing in riskier products, they have to accept negative real returns, which is bad for profits.Fed rate cuts could trigger the next plungeGiven that the market experienced considerable declines in the rate hike cycle that began in March 2022,Has most of the pullback/retracement associated with interest rate cuts already happened?The chart below shows the S&P 500's largest pullback/retracement from the start of the rate hike cycle,The average decline in the rate hike cycle is 11.50%, but has fallen nearly 25% in this cycle.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46b1c2dfa074f9f1ebff7f403c4a0ffa\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"419\"/>In judging how the Fed's next pivot will affect stock market expectations,There are two more factors to consider。First, the chart below shows the biggest pullback/retracement during the rate cut and the one-year return after the cut ends. From May 2020 to May 2021, a year after the last rate cut, the S&P 500 rose more than 50%.This percentage is three times the average return of 16% over the previous 8 cycles. So it's no surprise that the biggest drop in the current rate hike cycle is larger than average.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f50898eeee026c0a6ffd62ae6458b47\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"419\"/>Second, valuations help explain why the recent stock market declines during the Fed's policy pivot have been worse than before the dot-com bubble burst. The figure below shows that,The last three rate cuts all started when CAPE10's valuation was above its historical average, in contrast, previous examples have all occurred at below-average valuations.Note: CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted P/E), also known as Shiller P/E (Shiller P/E) or P/E 10 ratio, is a valuation indicator commonly used in the U.S. S&P 500 stock market. It is defined as price divided by inflation-adjusted 10-year average income (moving average).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c2d76a2c5ad5be94c5856d8b792390a\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"536\"/>Current CAPE valuations, while not as high as they were at the end of 2021, are about 50% above average. Although the market has made some corrections,Valuations could still be back to or below average, as they did in 2003 and 2009. Robertwitz said:\"It is difficult to draw conclusions about the pullback/retracement in 2020. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policies have played a prominent role in boosting the stock market. Considering inflation and political divisions, we believe that even if the market goes down more seriously now, it is unlikely that Fed members or politicians will increase the stimulus of fiscal and monetary policy.\"Market Expectations for Rate Cuts Are UnrealisticThe Fed remained outspoken last week that it wanted inflation to return to its 2% target.If they are going to cut interest rates as quickly and aggressively as the market predicts, something must be wrong。 For now, only in seriously unfavourable circumstances of a banking crisis or a rapidly deteriorating economy is there a reason to adopt the kind of rate cuts that markets suggest. Please note,Whether it's a crisis or a recession, it's not good for company earnings and share prices.There's one more thing to consider about the Fed's policy shift. If the Fed cuts interest rates, the yield curve could return to normal. Historically, the inversion of the yield curve has only been a warning of a recession.The chart below shows two closely watched U.S. Treasury Bond yield curves. The steepening of both curves was accompanied by a recession in the four scenarios mentioned above (i.e., greater-than-average pullback/retracement) and others prior to 1990. WhileOver the past two weeks, the 2-10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened by 60 basis points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361e1e203de45df7c9ee78346425ff90\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"538\"/></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will be in for a catastrophe? 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Take History as a Guide: Fed Rate Cuts Are Not Good!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n金十数据2023-03-30 17:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>The market is betting on the Fed's interest rate cut, but taking history as a mirror, the Fed's interest rate cut may be another catastrophe for the market! Michael Lebowitz, an investment analyst and portfolio manager at RIA Advisors, wrote:\"Just because the Fed cut interest rates doesn't mean a bull market is coming,\" Robertwitz said.Equity investors betting on the Fed's policy adjustments may need to rethink their logic.The second-largest bank failure in U.S. history and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>An emergency sale at a steep discount has investors betting that the Fed will pivot. They don't seem to care about the heat and stickiness of inflation, while the Fed remains determined to keep interest rates \"higher for longer\" despite the unfolding crisis.Like Pavlov's dog, investors buy when they hear the bell in a critical moment.If history is any guide, investor conditioning can be harmful.Interest rate cuts are always \"mourning everywhere\"The Federal Reserve has slashed its Federal Funds rate nine times since 1970.The average maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 from the start of each rate cut cycle to the market trough is 27.25%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03a5178e50b7a4dce343ded734f8f37\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"417\"/>The last three declines have all exceeded average, and of the other six experiences, only the 1974-1977 one saw a worse-than-average decline.So,Why have recent pullback/retracement been worse than before 1990?Because before 1990, the Federal Reserve was more active. Therefore, they do not allow interest rates to be significantly higher or lower than the natural growth rate of the economy. The exception is that high inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s forced the Federal Reserve to remain vigilant. Whatever the reason, high interest rates help curb speculative bubbles.The Fed has dominated the low interest rate environment for the past 20 years。 The chart below shows that real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations) have been trending downward for 40 years. From the pandemic until the Federal Reserve began its rate hike in March 2022, 10-year real yields were often negative.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f0eeae55291adb1bc75e929c0c8da3\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"534\"/>When interest rates are at predictably low levels, speculative activity tends to prevail.As we have seen, the speculative behavior generated by the Fed's easing policies in 2020 and 2021 has led conservative bankers and activist hedge funds to take on huge risks. Because without investing in riskier products, they have to accept negative real returns, which is bad for profits.Fed rate cuts could trigger the next plungeGiven that the market experienced considerable declines in the rate hike cycle that began in March 2022,Has most of the pullback/retracement associated with interest rate cuts already happened?The chart below shows the S&P 500's largest pullback/retracement from the start of the rate hike cycle,The average decline in the rate hike cycle is 11.50%, but has fallen nearly 25% in this cycle.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46b1c2dfa074f9f1ebff7f403c4a0ffa\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"419\"/>In judging how the Fed's next pivot will affect stock market expectations,There are two more factors to consider。First, the chart below shows the biggest pullback/retracement during the rate cut and the one-year return after the cut ends. From May 2020 to May 2021, a year after the last rate cut, the S&P 500 rose more than 50%.This percentage is three times the average return of 16% over the previous 8 cycles. So it's no surprise that the biggest drop in the current rate hike cycle is larger than average.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f50898eeee026c0a6ffd62ae6458b47\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"419\"/>Second, valuations help explain why the recent stock market declines during the Fed's policy pivot have been worse than before the dot-com bubble burst. The figure below shows that,The last three rate cuts all started when CAPE10's valuation was above its historical average, in contrast, previous examples have all occurred at below-average valuations.Note: CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted P/E), also known as Shiller P/E (Shiller P/E) or P/E 10 ratio, is a valuation indicator commonly used in the U.S. S&P 500 stock market. It is defined as price divided by inflation-adjusted 10-year average income (moving average).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c2d76a2c5ad5be94c5856d8b792390a\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"536\"/>Current CAPE valuations, while not as high as they were at the end of 2021, are about 50% above average. Although the market has made some corrections,Valuations could still be back to or below average, as they did in 2003 and 2009. Robertwitz said:\"It is difficult to draw conclusions about the pullback/retracement in 2020. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policies have played a prominent role in boosting the stock market. Considering inflation and political divisions, we believe that even if the market goes down more seriously now, it is unlikely that Fed members or politicians will increase the stimulus of fiscal and monetary policy.\"Market Expectations for Rate Cuts Are UnrealisticThe Fed remained outspoken last week that it wanted inflation to return to its 2% target.If they are going to cut interest rates as quickly and aggressively as the market predicts, something must be wrong。 For now, only in seriously unfavourable circumstances of a banking crisis or a rapidly deteriorating economy is there a reason to adopt the kind of rate cuts that markets suggest. Please note,Whether it's a crisis or a recession, it's not good for company earnings and share prices.There's one more thing to consider about the Fed's policy shift. If the Fed cuts interest rates, the yield curve could return to normal. Historically, the inversion of the yield curve has only been a warning of a recession.The chart below shows two closely watched U.S. Treasury Bond yield curves. The steepening of both curves was accompanied by a recession in the four scenarios mentioned above (i.e., greater-than-average pullback/retracement) and others prior to 1990. WhileOver the past two weeks, the 2-10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened by 60 basis points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361e1e203de45df7c9ee78346425ff90\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"538\"/></body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109346&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109346&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2323678027","content_text":"市场都在押注美联储降息，但是以史为鉴，美联储降息对市场来说恐又是一场浩劫！RIA Advisors的投资分析师和投资组合经理罗伯维兹（Michael Lebowitz）撰文表示：“美联储降息并不代表牛市来了。”罗伯维兹称，押注美联储调整政策的股票投资者可能需要重新思考他们的逻辑。美国史上第二大银行倒闭案以及瑞士信贷大幅折价紧急出售，令投资者押注美联储将转向。他们似乎并不关心通胀的热度和粘性，而尽管危机不断发展，美联储仍然决心将利率“更长时间地保持在较高水平”。就像巴甫洛夫的狗一样，投资者在听到关键时刻的铃声时买入。如果以史为鉴，投资者的条件反射可能是有害的。降息总是“哀鸿遍野”自1970年以来，美联储曾9次大幅下调联邦基金利率。标普500指数从每个降息周期开始到市场低谷的平均最大回撤为27.25%。最近三次的跌幅都超过了平均水平，而在其他六次经历中，只有1974-1977年那次出现了比平均水平更糟的下降。那么，为什么最近几次的回撤都比1990年以前更严重呢？因为在1990年之前，美联储更为活跃。因此，他们不允许利率大幅高于或低于经济的自然增速。例外就是，上世纪70年代和80年代初的高通胀曾迫使美联储保持警惕。不管是什么原因，高利率有助于抑制投机泡沫。在过去20年里，美联储主导了低利率环境。下图显示，实际收益率（名义收益率减去通胀预期）40年来一直呈下降趋势。从疫情到美联储于2022年3月开始加息，10年期实际收益率经常为负数。当利率处于可预见的低水平时，投机活动往往盛行。正如我们所看到的，美联储在2020年和2021年的宽松政策所产生的投机行为，导致保守的银行家和激进的对冲基金承担了巨大的风险。因为如果不投资风险更高的产品，他们就必须接受负的实际回报，这对利润不利。美联储降息恐引发下一轮暴跌鉴于市场在2022年3月开始的加息周期中经历了相当大的下跌，与降息相关的大部分回撤是否已经发生了呢？下图显示了标普500指数从加息周期开始的最大回撤，加息周期的平均降幅为11.50%，但在本轮周期中却下跌了近25%。在判断美联储下一次转向会如何影响股市预期时，还有两个需要考虑的因素。首先，下图显示了降息期间的最大回撤以及降息结束后的一年回报率。从2020年5月到2021年5月，也就是上次降息后的一年时间里，标普500指数上涨了50%以上。这一比例是前8个周期平均回报率16%的三倍。因此，当前加息周期的最大降幅大于平均水平也就不足为奇了。其次，估值有助于解释为什么最近几次在美联储政策转向期间的股市下跌比互联网泡沫破裂前的更严重。下图显示，最近三次降息都是在CAPE10估值高于历史平均水平时开始的，相比之下，此前的例子都发生在低于平均估值的情况下。注：CAPE(周期性调整市盈率)又称希勒市盈率(Shiller P/E)或P/E 10比率，是一种通常用于美国标普500指数股市的估值指标。它的定义是价格除以经过通货膨胀调整的10年平均收入(移动平均)。目前的CAPE估值虽然没有2021年底那么高，但比平均水平高出约50%。尽管市场已经进行了一些调整，但估值仍可能回到平均水平或低于平均水平，就像2003年和2009年那样。罗伯维兹称：“很难对2020年的回撤做出结论。史无前例的财政和货币政策在提振股市方面发挥了突出作用。考虑到通胀和政治分歧，我们认为，现在就算市场出现更严重的下跌，美联储成员或政界人士都不太可能加大财政和货币政策的刺激。”市场对降息的预期并不现实美联储上周仍直言不讳地表示，希望通胀率回到2%的目标。如果他们要像市场预测的那样迅速且大幅降息，那一定是出了问题。目前，只有在银行业危机或经济迅速恶化的严重不利形势下，才有理由采取市场暗示的那种降息。请注意，无论是危机还是衰退，对公司收益和股价来说都不是好事。关于美联储的政策转向，还有一点值得考虑。如果美联储降息，收益率曲线可能会恢复正常。从历史上看，收益率曲线的倒挂只是衰退的警告。下图显示了两条备受关注的美国国债收益率曲线。在上述四种情况（即回撤幅度大于平均水平）和1990年之前的其他情况中，两条曲线变陡都伴随着经济衰退。而过去两周，2-10年期美债收益率曲线变陡了60个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".IXIC":1,"OEX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SPY":1,"DDM":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"QLD":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"QQQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1894,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}