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Yeenyeen
2021-07-27

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U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds, who will adjust first?

当前美债与美股双双上涨的格局是难以维系的。 10年期美国国债收益率在最近1个月显著下跌，由6月23日的1.50%下跌至7月23日的1.30%（图1）。考虑到2021年6月美国核心CPI同比增速飙升至

U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds, who will adjust first?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":809227375,"tweetId":"809227375","gmtCreate":1627374045697,"gmtModify":1703488638206,"author":{"id":4089370067564560,"idStr":"4089370067564560","authorId":4089370067564560,"authorIdStr":"4089370067564560","name":"Yeenyeen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a207bee51315ef441aebcc88967d9f7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hi</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hi</p></body></html>","text":"Hi","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809227375","repostId":1164874043,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164874043","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627372487,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164874043?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 15:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds, who will adjust first?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164874043","media":"张明宏观金融研究","summary":"当前美债与美股双双上涨的格局是难以维系的。\n\n10年期美国国债收益率在最近1个月显著下跌，由6月23日的1.50%下跌至7月23日的1.30%（图1）。考虑到2021年6月美国核心CPI同比增速飙升至","content":"<p>The current pattern of both U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks rising is difficult to maintain. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has fallen significantly in the past month, from 1.50% on June 23 to 1.30% on July 23 (Figure 1). Considering that the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. core CPI soared to 4.5% in June 2021, reaching a new high since December 1991, it is indeed surprising that the current U.S. long-term bond interest rate is so low (Figure 2). In November 1991, the U.S. core CPI also grew at a year-on-year rate of 4.5%, but the 10-year Treasury Bond yield was as high as 7.4%. According to Federal Reserve estimates, U.S. GDP growth is expected to reach 7% year-on-year in 2021. Therefore, regardless of economic growth or inflation, the current 10-year Treasury Bond yield of 1.30% is indeed at a very low level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4313199730632d8a9566564984e6b575\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"1269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, there are several main explanations in the market for the reasons for the recent decline in long-term Treasury Bond interest rates in the United States: First, the current high core CPI is mainly a short-term increase under the impact of the epidemic. As the epidemic subsides, the CPI growth rate will gradually decline; Second, the recent global epidemic situation has shown signs of worsening again, causing risk aversion to rise again in the global financial market; Third, because the debt of the U.S. federal government is at a high level, the U.S. government is reluctant to rise long-term interest rates too fast.</p><p>In the past two months, the US Dollar Index has risen instead of falling (Figure 3). The coexistence of a long-term decline in US Treasury yields and a rise in the US Dollar Index means that there is indeed a strong risk aversion in the market. But on the other hand, as shown in Figure 4, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite Index have reached new highs recently, which shows that at least in the U.S. stock market, investors' risk sentiment is still quite strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa00977cdb1ca58d794ef51ec3aa8a1\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"1257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Both bond and stock markets rose, usually driven by loose liquidity. But at present, the Federal Reserve has not continued to ease policy, just failed to tighten policy in time. There is still great uncertainty about the speed at which the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy in the future.</p><p>The author believes that the current pattern of both U.S. debt and U.S. stocks rising is difficult to maintain. In the coming period of the market, the market may present three patterns: first, U.S. stocks continue to maintain a bull market, U.S. bonds adjust, and the 10-year Treasury Bond yield returns to above 1.50%; Second, U.S. bond yields continue to be low, and U.S. stocks have undergone drastic adjustments; Third, U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks have undergone adjustments at the same time.</p><p>At present, the great uncertainty in the world makes it difficult to give the probabilities of the above three patterns. But even so, it is necessary to prepare for potential future adjustments and hedge risks appropriately. If you have to predict it, the possibility of adjustment in U.S. stocks in the short term may be greater.</p>","source":"lsy1594114531475","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds, who will adjust first?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks and U.S. bonds, who will adjust first?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">张明宏观金融研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 15:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The current pattern of both U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks rising is difficult to maintain. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has fallen significantly in the past month, from 1.50% on June 23 to 1.30% on July 23 (Figure 1). Considering that the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. core CPI soared to 4.5% in June 2021, reaching a new high since December 1991, it is indeed surprising that the current U.S. long-term bond interest rate is so low (Figure 2). In November 1991, the U.S. core CPI also grew at a year-on-year rate of 4.5%, but the 10-year Treasury Bond yield was as high as 7.4%. According to Federal Reserve estimates, U.S. GDP growth is expected to reach 7% year-on-year in 2021. Therefore, regardless of economic growth or inflation, the current 10-year Treasury Bond yield of 1.30% is indeed at a very low level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4313199730632d8a9566564984e6b575\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"1269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, there are several main explanations in the market for the reasons for the recent decline in long-term Treasury Bond interest rates in the United States: First, the current high core CPI is mainly a short-term increase under the impact of the epidemic. As the epidemic subsides, the CPI growth rate will gradually decline; Second, the recent global epidemic situation has shown signs of worsening again, causing risk aversion to rise again in the global financial market; Third, because the debt of the U.S. federal government is at a high level, the U.S. government is reluctant to rise long-term interest rates too fast.</p><p>In the past two months, the US Dollar Index has risen instead of falling (Figure 3). The coexistence of a long-term decline in US Treasury yields and a rise in the US Dollar Index means that there is indeed a strong risk aversion in the market. But on the other hand, as shown in Figure 4, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite Index have reached new highs recently, which shows that at least in the U.S. stock market, investors' risk sentiment is still quite strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa00977cdb1ca58d794ef51ec3aa8a1\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"1257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Both bond and stock markets rose, usually driven by loose liquidity. But at present, the Federal Reserve has not continued to ease policy, just failed to tighten policy in time. There is still great uncertainty about the speed at which the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy in the future.</p><p>The author believes that the current pattern of both U.S. debt and U.S. stocks rising is difficult to maintain. In the coming period of the market, the market may present three patterns: first, U.S. stocks continue to maintain a bull market, U.S. bonds adjust, and the 10-year Treasury Bond yield returns to above 1.50%; Second, U.S. bond yields continue to be low, and U.S. stocks have undergone drastic adjustments; Third, U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks have undergone adjustments at the same time.</p><p>At present, the great uncertainty in the world makes it difficult to give the probabilities of the above three patterns. But even so, it is necessary to prepare for potential future adjustments and hedge risks appropriately. If you have to predict it, the possibility of adjustment in U.S. stocks in the short term may be greater.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/477672\">张明宏观金融研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/477672","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164874043","content_text":"当前美债与美股双双上涨的格局是难以维系的。\n\n10年期美国国债收益率在最近1个月显著下跌，由6月23日的1.50%下跌至7月23日的1.30%（图1）。考虑到2021年6月美国核心CPI同比增速飙升至4.5%，达到了自1991年12月以来的新高，当前美国长债利率如此低迷，的确令人惊讶（图2）。1991年11月，美国核心CPI同比增速也为4.5%，但10年期国债收益率高达7.4%。根据美联储估计，2021年美国GDP同比增速有望达到7%。因此无论从经济增长还是通货膨胀来看，当前1.30%的10年期国债收益率的确处于很低水平。\n\n目前针对近期美国长期国债利率走低的原因，市场上主要有如此几种解释：第一，当前高企的核心CPI主要是疫情冲击下的短期走高，随着疫情的消退，CPI增速将会逐渐下降；第二，近期全球疫情有再度恶化的迹象，使得全球金融市场上避险情绪再度抬头；第三，由于美国联邦政府债务处于很高水平，美国政府不愿意长期利率过快上升。\n最近两个月以来，美元指数不降反升（图3）。长期美债利率下降与美元指数上升并存，意味着市场上的确存在着较强的避险情绪。但另一方面，如图4所示，目前无论道琼斯工业指数还是纳斯达克综合指数近期都迭创新高，这说明至少在美股市场上，投资者风险情绪还是相当强的。\n\n债市与股市双双上涨，通常受到宽松流动性的推动。但目前美联储并没有继续放松政策，仅仅是没有及时收紧政策。未来美联储将以何种速度收紧货币政策，依然存在较大不确定性。\n笔者认为，当前美债与美股双双上涨的格局是难以维系的。未来一段市场内，市场可能呈现三种格局：第一，美股继续维持牛市，美债发生调整，10年期国债收益率重返1.50%以上；第二，美债收益率继续处于低位，美股发生剧烈调整；第三，美债与美股同时发生调整。\n目前全球范围内较大的不确定性，让人很难给出上述三种格局各自的概率。但即使如此，对未来潜在调整做好准备，进行适当风险对冲，还是很有必要的。如果非要预测一下的话，短期内美股发生调整的可能性或许更大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"BND":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2913,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}