港股周策略:交投情緒回暖背景下,配置價值浮出水面
$恆生指數(HSI)$ 上週漲超2%,算是本輪下跌以來較爲有力的一次修復,除了和主要成分股估值普遍進入歷史偏低區域有關外,相信也受益於技術上恆指觸及到季線的支持區域,料具備持續性。
從市場情緒上看,外資對中概股的交投情緒開始回暖是最直接的推力,不僅包括木頭姐的ARK基金開始抄底,從美國散戶聚集地“Reddit”上不斷升溫的中概股討論,也能窺看一二。於此同時,恆指指數成分股本身的調整也越來越向着更強增長,更高容錯的方向演變。
比如,招行將在9月的調整中被納入恆指便是佐證。今年國內銀行股跌幅普遍羸弱,包括規模最大的匯豐、建行和工行等,不少出現不同程度的跌幅,主打零售的招行(30%+)表現幾乎是一枝獨秀。迎合了投資者在選擇具有增長前景的銀行股方面的挑剔。
我們認爲,在資金存量相對充足,且在國內貨幣政策並沒有收緊的情況下,較難給AH市場帶來趨勢性的改變,換言之,仍然大概率保持當前既有的長牛格局之上。關於中資/中概的風格,我們認爲今年的風格,仍然像我們年初時判斷的一樣:即年內在通脹升溫,美元階段性喘息,全球復甦共振背景下,中國智造,出海型企業或是加分之選。$國企指數(HSCEI)$ $紅籌指數(HSCCI)$
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