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2021-08-28

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Gold soared and the dollar plummeted! What exactly does Powell mean?

杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全球央行、尤其是美联储下一阶段政策走向的风向标。部分市场预期美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在会上宣布缩减QE，会前一小时内美联储官员的密集鹰派发声，好像是在为此做好铺垫。结果却有点“出人意料”：黄金大涨、美元直线暴跌、美股上涨！02鲍威尔讲话的“核心”结果鲍威尔讲话确实提到了今年内可能缩减QE，但是并没有提到任何缩减计划，只是一句话带过去。那鲍威尔讲话究竟想要表达什么？

Gold soared and the dollar plummeted! What exactly does Powell mean?

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What exactly does Powell mean?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162737400","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全球央行、尤其是美联储下一阶段政策走向的风向标。部分市场预期美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在会上宣布缩减QE，会前一小时内美联储官员的密集鹰派发声，好像是在为此做好铺垫。结果却有点“出人意料”：黄金大涨、美元直线暴跌、美股上涨！02鲍威尔讲话的“核心”结果鲍威尔讲话确实提到了今年内可能缩减QE，但是并没有提到任何缩减计划，只是一句话带过去。那鲍威尔讲话究竟想要表达什么？","content":"<p>At 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, August 27, the highly anticipated annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole of the Federal Reserve was held.</p><p>The Jackson Hole annual meeting has always been regarded as a benchmark for the next stage of policy direction of global central banks, especially the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Some markets expect that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may announce the reduction of QE at the meeting. The intensive hawkish voices of Fed officials within the hour before the meeting seemed to be paving the way for this.</p><p>Powell really said at the meeting: Taper may occur within the year, but it is far away from rate hike...</p><p>The result was a bit \"unexpected\": gold rose sharply, the US dollar plummeted, and US stocks rose!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8be0e9d2ff8f4965b70abba34c89f2e4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd2f97c165ae44b49bdd08614f76c156\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>This is clearly in the opposite direction of reducing QE. What's going on?</p><p>In fact, the focus of the message Powell wants to convey this time is not the possible reduction of QE within the year, but...</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Pre-meeting hawks \"hot field\"</b></p><p>Just an hour before Powell's speech, Fed officials began to heat up the field with hawkish remarks, making people think that Powell might announce a reduction in QE.</p><p>Philadelphia Fed President Harker said: The Fed has achieved its inflation target, with an average inflation rate of more than 2%;</p><p>St. Louis Fed President Bullard said: QE has little value now, and reiterated his hope to start reducing QE now and complete it in the first quarter of 2022;</p><p>Dallas Fed Kaplan said: It is expected that the core PCE will be as high as 4% by the end of the year, so I hope to start adjusting QE as soon as possible;</p><p>The president of the Cleveland Fed said: It is appropriate to start discussing reducing QE in September, and hopes to start reducing Q this year and complete it in mid-2022;</p><p>The president of the ATLANTA Fed expects the Fed to make rate hike at the end of 2022 (earlier than previously expected in 2023).</p><p>These remarks were all released within one hour before Powell went on stage, which made people feel that Powell was going to release the eagle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ad397eff0941ac86edd85c836c59ad\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>The \"core\" of Powell's speech</b></p><p>As a result, Powell's speech did mention the possibility of reducing QE this year, but did not mention any reduction plan, just a sentence.</p><p><b>In addition, he said that it may be reduced, which means that it may not be reduced.</b></p><p>So what exactly does Powell want to express in his speech? I will not repeat the specific content of the speech here, but save everyone's time and directly give the structure of Powell's speech. (For specific speech content, please refer to the third article of today's push)</p><p>Powell's speech mainly consists of two parts:</p><p><b>The first part is to highlight the huge impact of COVID and the uncertainty of the fourth wave of COVID brought by the Delta virus</b>--Note that this is in sharp contrast to the eagle release at the last meeting: the last meeting even deleted the measures of the huge impact of the new crown on the economy, but this time it was actually added back.</p><p><b>The second part uses various so-called historical laws and data to continue to emphasize the \"temporary theory of inflation\"</b>--In other words, the Fed expects inflation to remain high or even rise, but don't worry that this is all temporary.</p><p><b>At the end, Powell did not emphasize the possibility of reducing QE within the year, but said that he would continue to maintain the current pace of bond purchases; And stressed that the Fed can also make mistakes about inflation</b>, because it is very difficult to judge whether inflation is temporary or long-term;</p><p>In addition, the impact of the Delta virus is still unknown, and we need to wait for more data to come out before making a decision; If it is found that inflation will really get out of control, we must have the tools to respond.</p><p>In short,<b>The \"focus\" of Powell's speech this time is not to shrink QE, but to emphasize the uncertainty caused by the fourth wave of Delta and ask the Fed to continue to wait for the latest data</b>； And inflation may continue to rise in the process, but don't worry, it's all temporary...</p><p>Well, QE continues, and it may shrink this year. Of course, since it is possible, it may not shrink-just like not saying it.</p><p>The overall tone of the speech is pigeon-<b>Instead of showing confidence in the economy and employment, it emphasizes uncertainty and the importance of future data.</b></p><p>After listening to it, the market shouted Hi Sen, skyrocketed!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold soared and the dollar plummeted! 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What exactly does Powell mean?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1045080548\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-28 10:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, August 27, the highly anticipated annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole of the Federal Reserve was held.</p><p>The Jackson Hole annual meeting has always been regarded as a benchmark for the next stage of policy direction of global central banks, especially the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Some markets expect that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may announce the reduction of QE at the meeting. The intensive hawkish voices of Fed officials within the hour before the meeting seemed to be paving the way for this.</p><p>Powell really said at the meeting: Taper may occur within the year, but it is far away from rate hike...</p><p>The result was a bit \"unexpected\": gold rose sharply, the US dollar plummeted, and US stocks rose!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8be0e9d2ff8f4965b70abba34c89f2e4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd2f97c165ae44b49bdd08614f76c156\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>This is clearly in the opposite direction of reducing QE. What's going on?</p><p>In fact, the focus of the message Powell wants to convey this time is not the possible reduction of QE within the year, but...</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Pre-meeting hawks \"hot field\"</b></p><p>Just an hour before Powell's speech, Fed officials began to heat up the field with hawkish remarks, making people think that Powell might announce a reduction in QE.</p><p>Philadelphia Fed President Harker said: The Fed has achieved its inflation target, with an average inflation rate of more than 2%;</p><p>St. Louis Fed President Bullard said: QE has little value now, and reiterated his hope to start reducing QE now and complete it in the first quarter of 2022;</p><p>Dallas Fed Kaplan said: It is expected that the core PCE will be as high as 4% by the end of the year, so I hope to start adjusting QE as soon as possible;</p><p>The president of the Cleveland Fed said: It is appropriate to start discussing reducing QE in September, and hopes to start reducing Q this year and complete it in mid-2022;</p><p>The president of the ATLANTA Fed expects the Fed to make rate hike at the end of 2022 (earlier than previously expected in 2023).</p><p>These remarks were all released within one hour before Powell went on stage, which made people feel that Powell was going to release the eagle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ad397eff0941ac86edd85c836c59ad\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>The \"core\" of Powell's speech</b></p><p>As a result, Powell's speech did mention the possibility of reducing QE this year, but did not mention any reduction plan, just a sentence.</p><p><b>In addition, he said that it may be reduced, which means that it may not be reduced.</b></p><p>So what exactly does Powell want to express in his speech? I will not repeat the specific content of the speech here, but save everyone's time and directly give the structure of Powell's speech. (For specific speech content, please refer to the third article of today's push)</p><p>Powell's speech mainly consists of two parts:</p><p><b>The first part is to highlight the huge impact of COVID and the uncertainty of the fourth wave of COVID brought by the Delta virus</b>--Note that this is in sharp contrast to the eagle release at the last meeting: the last meeting even deleted the measures of the huge impact of the new crown on the economy, but this time it was actually added back.</p><p><b>The second part uses various so-called historical laws and data to continue to emphasize the \"temporary theory of inflation\"</b>--In other words, the Fed expects inflation to remain high or even rise, but don't worry that this is all temporary.</p><p><b>At the end, Powell did not emphasize the possibility of reducing QE within the year, but said that he would continue to maintain the current pace of bond purchases; And stressed that the Fed can also make mistakes about inflation</b>, because it is very difficult to judge whether inflation is temporary or long-term;</p><p>In addition, the impact of the Delta virus is still unknown, and we need to wait for more data to come out before making a decision; If it is found that inflation will really get out of control, we must have the tools to respond.</p><p>In short,<b>The \"focus\" of Powell's speech this time is not to shrink QE, but to emphasize the uncertainty caused by the fourth wave of Delta and ask the Fed to continue to wait for the latest data</b>； And inflation may continue to rise in the process, but don't worry, it's all temporary...</p><p>Well, QE continues, and it may shrink this year. Of course, since it is possible, it may not shrink-just like not saying it.</p><p>The overall tone of the speech is pigeon-<b>Instead of showing confidence in the economy and employment, it emphasizes uncertainty and the importance of future data.</b></p><p>After listening to it, the market shouted Hi Sen, skyrocketed!</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2162737400","content_text":"8月27日美东时间周五早10点，备受瞩目的美联储杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会召开。\n杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全球央行、尤其是美联储下一阶段政策走向的风向标。\n部分市场预期美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在会上宣布缩减QE，会前一小时内美联储官员的密集鹰派发声，好像是在为此做好铺垫。\n会上鲍威尔果然说了：年内可能Taper，但距离加息遥远……\n结果却有点“出人意料”：黄金大涨、美元直线暴跌、美股上涨！\n\n这分明是跟缩减QE相反的方向，怎么回事？\n实际上，鲍威尔这次想要传递的信息重点，不是年内可能缩减QE，而是……\n01\n会前鹰派“热场”\n就在鲍威尔讲话前一小时，美联储官员开始用鹰派言论热场，让人以为鲍威尔可能会宣布缩减QE。\n费城联储主席哈克称：美联储已经实现了通胀目标，平均通胀率超过2%；\n圣路易斯联储主席布拉德称：QE现在已经没有什么价值，重申希望现在就开始缩减QE，并在2022年一季度就完成；\n达拉斯联储卡普兰称：预期年底核心PCE会高达4%，所以希望尽快开始调整QE；\n克利夫兰联储主席称：9月就开始讨论缩减QE是合适的，并希望今年开始缩减Q，2022年年中完成；\n亚特兰大联储主席预计：美联储在2022年年底加息（比此前2023年的预期更早）。\n这些言论都集中在鲍威尔上场前1小时内放出，让人觉得鲍威尔要放鹰了。\n\n02\n鲍威尔讲话的“核心”\n结果鲍威尔讲话确实提到了今年内可能缩减QE，但是并没有提到任何缩减计划，只是一句话带过去。\n另外他说可能缩减，意思是也有可能不会缩减。\n那鲍威尔讲话究竟想要表达什么？这里就不再重复具体讲话内容，而是节省大家时间，直接给出鲍威尔的讲话结构。（具体讲话内容可查看今日推送第三条）\n鲍威尔的讲话主要是两大部分构成：\n第一大部分是强调新冠的巨大影响和Delta病毒带来的新冠第四波的不确定性——注意这跟上次会议放鹰形成鲜明对比：上次会议甚至已经将新冠对经济的巨大影响的措施删除，这次实际上算是又加回来了。\n第二大部分是用各种所谓的历史规律和数据，来继续强调“通胀暂时论”——换言之，就是美联储预计通胀将继续保持高位甚至是上升，但是，不用担心这一切都是暂时的。\n最后结尾的时候，鲍威尔并没有强调年内可能缩减QE这件事，而是说，将继续保持现在的购债速度；并强调关于通胀，美联储也有可能犯错，因为判断通胀是暂时的还是长期的非常困难；\n另外Delta病毒造成的影响现在尚未可知，我们需要再等更多数据出来以后再做决定；如果发现通胀真的会失控，我们一定有工具来对应。\n总之，这次鲍威尔的讲话“重点”不是要缩QE，而是强调Delta第四波造成的不确定性，要求美联储继续等待最新数据；而通胀在这一过程中还可能继续上升，但不用担心，这一切都是暂时的……\n好吧，QE继续，今年可能缩，当然既然是可能，也就有可能不缩——跟没说一样。\n而讲话整体偏鸽的基调——没有对经济和就业表现出信心，而是强调不确定性，和未来数据的重要性。\n市场听了，大呼嗨森，狂涨！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1181,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}