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沃伦邹菲特
2021-08-23

Top 10 Brokerage Strategies: Market risk release is nearing completion; gradually allocate to the left.

华西证券：宁组合等高景气成长是配置主线

Top 10 Brokerage Strategies: Market risk release is nearing completion; gradually allocate to the left.

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阿弥陀佛阿弥陀佛阿弥陀佛
·2021-08-23
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阿弥陀佛阿弥陀佛阿弥陀佛
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":832731894,"tweetId":"832731894","gmtCreate":1629677710318,"gmtModify":1676530091669,"author":{"id":3565347485988843,"idStr":"3565347485988843","authorId":3565347485988843,"authorIdStr":"3565347485988843","name":"沃伦邹菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450aba14f5c3dc0f3de122a54e229dd0","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>1</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>1</body></html>","text":"1","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832731894","repostId":2161740649,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2161740649","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629676668,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161740649?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 07:57","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Top 10 Brokerage Strategies: Market risk release is nearing completion; gradually allocate to the left.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161740649","media":"格隆汇","summary":"华西证券：宁组合等高景气成长是配置主线","content":"Last week, the A-share market experienced a volatile decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.53% cumulatively, the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 3.69% cumulatively, and the ChiNext Index falling by 4.55% cumulatively. Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 10.491 billion yuan, and the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the 23rd consecutive trading day. Hong Kong stocks were affected by the continued sharp decline in heavyweight stocks. The Hang Seng Index fell 5.84% week-on-week, and the China Hang Seng Index fell 6.78% week-on-week. However, the Hang Seng Tech Index continued to fall 10.54% week-on-week, hitting a new historical low.How will the market perform in the future? Let's look at the latest summary of strategies from the top ten securities firms.1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>The market's risk release is nearing its end, and the market is gradually shifting to the left.The national policy of common prosperity and the corresponding policy support in the future will not harm the logic of market-oriented business. Under the policy tone of preventing financial risks, the impact of local credit risk is also controllable. Investors still need to wait for more signals to correct policy misinterpretations. The third quarter is expected to be the low point for the domestic macroeconomy this year, with market liquidity remaining in a tight balance. Divergences in policy and economic outlook have led to disordered investor behavior, and the release of market risks is nearing its end. We will adhere to balanced allocation and gradually allocate to the left. In terms of specific allocation, the growth manufacturing sector has shifted from high-level sectors to relatively low-level sectors, such as the military industry, which was catalyzed by interim report performance, and 5G, communication equipment, and auto parts, whose fundamentals have reached a turning point. Within the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, we recommend automobiles, apparel, CXO, vaccines, and medical services; In the financial sector, we recommend some retail banks with good valuation or medium- to long-term growth potential, as well as securities firms positioned in wealth management.2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan Securities</a>The style is just beginning, not switching.Looking at future investment opportunities realistically, technological growth remains the main investment opportunity in the next stage, and the style is just beginning, not shifting. Mid-cap blue-chip stocks and technology growth are the core investment terms. Given the current economic pressure, fiscal stability, and severe energy conservation situation, new energy infrastructure is the preferred investment direction. We recommend six major sectors: photovoltaics, BIPV, wind power, ultra-high voltage power, charging piles, and pumped storage.3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">Guojin Securities</a>There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Shanghai Composite Index around 3300-3400 points.The fundamental reason for the increased short-term market volatility is that the market is still waiting for many uncertainties to resolve. In the current existing market, there is a lack of a clear main theme under high trading volume. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Shanghai Composite Index around 3300-3400 points. On the one hand, the performance of listed companies is still supported. On the other hand, after the valuation shift, driven by high performance growth, the current valuation of A-shares has a certain safety margin. Although valuation divergence remains significant structurally, there are still sectors in the market with a certain level of cost-effectiveness, such as the midstream manufacturing industry.4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>The current bull market is not over yet, and the market is still full of opportunities in the next six months.A-shares have fallen significantly in the past week, with the CSI 300 down 3.6% and the ChiNext Index down 4.6%. The market as a whole has been weak since July 1, and investors have doubts about the future. We believe that, considering the macro background and the profitability of micro-enterprises, this year is similar to 2010, with the second half being even more exciting. Drawing on historical annual market fluctuations and bull market cycles, the market remains full of opportunities in the next six months.Key conclusions: (1) Statistics show that the CSI 300 has risen by more than 15% at least once a year. This year's macroeconomic background is similar to that of 2010, and the second half of the stock market is expected to be even more exciting. (2) The ROE of listed companies is expected to continue to rise to Q1 2022, the market valuation level and sentiment indicators are acceptable, and the current bull market is not over yet. (3) The market is shifting from solitary enjoyment to shared enjoyment, taking into account both...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing and traditional midstream and downstream manufacturing, with attention paid to underserved industries such as securities firms.5.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">Huaxi Securities</a>High-growth sectors such as the Ningxia portfolio are the main allocation themes.Amid concerns about uncertainties surrounding domestic and international policies, market risk appetite has recently declined. However, the overall valuation of A-shares is currently reasonable, and the risks of sentiment and concentration of shares have been released during the short-term adjustment. As uncertainties subside, the market is expected to gradually emerge from the bottoming-out period. The core factor determining market style in the future will still be the relative advantage of profitability.Specifically, the valuation of the consumer sector has continued to decline recently, and more definite signals will have to wait until the fundamentals reach a turning point and the market regains consensus. Under the framework of \"cross-cycle adjustment\" of policies, current policies are more of a \"support without promotion\" approach, and the boost to traditional infrastructure (pro-cyclical) may be slower. Judging from the interim earnings forecast, the prosperity of growth sectors is difficult to disprove, and they will remain a key investment area in the future. Specifically, in terms of industry allocation, we recommend focusing on: \"new energy industry chain (electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, etc.), new infrastructure (intelligent transportation, etc.), and military industry\". Thematic investment focus: \"Expanding the connotation of carbon neutrality (green industry) and the main theme of HarmonyOS\".6.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>Countermeasures under the reproduction of microstructure adjustmentIncreased policy uncertainty has led to a double whammy of earnings and valuations in the A-share market, especially in sectors heavily affected by policies. The current micro-structure of the A-share market is still not healthy, and the recent policy environment of \"promoting common prosperity through high-quality development\" and \"specialized, refined and innovative\" will further strengthen the theme of \"small-cap growth\". We recommend focusing on the technology manufacturing sector, which is expected to recover in its interim results (forecast), supplemented by some infrastructure-related stocks. It is recommended to continue to allocate funds to \"market capitalization lower-tier cities\" - (1) new energy vehicles (lithium/diaphragm)/photovoltaics driven by multiple wheels of \"policy + technology + supply and demand gap\"; (2) \"Small population\" + growth and diffusion favored by industrial policies (military industry); (3) Manufacturing industry (construction machinery/cement) with easing cost suppression and marginal changes in demand.7.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600909\">Huaan Securities</a>Waiting for risk appetite to stabilize, the main growth theme remains promising.Market volatility has increased recently due to sentiment disturbances, but there is still no downward pressure at present. The overall structural market trend remains unchanged, and growth stocks are expected to continue to dominate, while cyclical stocks are also worth paying attention to. After market digestion, risk appetite is expected to stabilize. Currently, the macroeconomic, monetary, and market environments both domestically and internationally are relatively stable, so market risk appetite has the basic conditions for overall stability in the short term. In terms of specific structure, the interim reports of leading blue-chip stocks fell short of expectations, market supervision became stricter, and the progress of consumption recovery repeatedly fell short of expectations, resulting in weak consumer style preferences. Growth stocks, on the other hand, have a combination of liquidity, performance, and catalyst support, and their risk appetite remains relatively superior. Focus on two main themes with profitable advantages. Main Theme 1: Growth Style. Continue to focus on the semiconductor and new energy vehicle industry chains, which are currently experiencing absolutely high prosperity, while also paying attention to structural opportunities that benefit from growth diffusion. Main Theme Two: Cyclical style, focusing on high-growth structural opportunities, including the chemical industry, especially the phosphorus chemical sector, which is at a high level of growth, and the general automation equipment sector, which benefits from manufacturing upgrading.8.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601696\">BOC Securities</a>It is recommended to seize excess returns from undervalued cyclical sectors.The market has recently experienced a certain degree of correction, and the combination of internal and external factors has led to a decline in market risk appetite. From a market structure perspective, both directions that previously attracted market funds have faced certain fluctuations recently. The stable profit models of traditional consumer leaders may face certain potential impacts. In contrast, stocks in the new energy and photovoltaic sectors, although the industry prosperity continues to be high, are currently valued at high levels, and the hesitation of new funds has led to high-level fluctuations in the sector. In terms of sector allocation, it is recommended to seize the excess returns of undervalued pro-cyclical sectors. Secondly, we can pay attention to the valuation shift opportunities in the fourth quarter of the leading industries, represented by new energy and semiconductors. Looking ahead, with industry performance divergence, financial management firms and leading securities firms have greater certainty of growth and are expected to enjoy valuation premiums.9. Yuekai Securities: The capital market has vast potential for incremental funds.Rising expectations of Federal Reserve policy tightening may put short-term adjustment pressure on US stocks, but the impact on A-shares will be limited. In addition, with fund shares at historical highs, overseas long-term funds such as MSCI entering the market, and domestic long-term funds such as social security funds entering the market, the capital market has vast potential for incremental funds. With economic growth slowing in the second half of the year and liquidity expectations moderately easing, earnings remain a \"certainty\" for funds to pursue, and high-growth sectors and mid-cap sectors with widespread growth are still expected to show structural trends. Turnover rates in popular concept sectors have seen significant adjustments this week. After cooling trading and a short-term correction, the profit-making effect is expected to rebound. In terms of allocation direction, we recommend focusing on technology companies with long-term high-quality business models and sustainable performance, and core allocations to \"hard technology\" sectors such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors, military electronics and communications; The financial industry's semi-annual report season is underway. The overall valuation level of the financial industry is relatively cheap, and its performance in the first half of the year has recovered steadily. It is recommended to pay attention to financial sector stocks with outstanding semi-annual report performance.10.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>The downside potential for the index may be limited, and the market style may still be \"growth-oriented\".The downward trend in growth is now being widely expected, and the downward trend in most commodity prices is continuing. Given the latest domestic situation, the market may need to gradually reset its growth expectations for the second half of the year and next year. Against the backdrop of strengthened expectations of external policy withdrawal, a slowdown in China's growth rate, and concerns about industrial regulatory policies, it may be necessary to downplay the overall expectations for the equity index. However, considering the low overall market valuation, the downside potential of the index may be limited. Structurally, the reset of growth expectations means that macroeconomic policies may continue to remain stable with a slight easing trend. In terms of allocation, we believe we can further reduce allocation to strong cyclical sectors, and the market style may still be \"growth-oriented\".Allocation recommendations: Control the pace of growth stocks and allocate a balanced portfolio to some established blue-chip stocks. (1) High prosperity, competitive or growing industrial chains in China: electric vehicle industry chain, photovoltaics, technology hardware and software, electronic semiconductors, some manufacturing capital goods, etc. (2) General consumer sectors: Bottom-up stock selection in general consumer sectors, including daily necessities, home appliances, automobiles and auto parts, pharmaceuticals and medical devices, and light industry and home furnishings; (3) Gradually reduce cyclical allocation but focus on some cycles with favorable structures or structural growth characteristics: non-ferrous metals such as lithium, chemicals, and financial leaders that benefit from the major development trend of wealth and asset management.","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top 10 Brokerage Strategies: Market risk release is nearing completion; gradually allocate to the left.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop 10 Brokerage Strategies: Market risk release is nearing completion; gradually allocate to the left.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n格隆汇2021-08-23 07:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nLast week, the A-share market experienced a volatile decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.53% cumulatively, the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 3.69% cumulatively, and the ChiNext Index falling by 4.55% cumulatively. Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 10.491 billion yuan, and the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the 23rd consecutive trading day. Hong Kong stocks were affected by the continued sharp decline in heavyweight stocks. The Hang Seng Index fell 5.84% week-on-week, and the China Hang Seng Index fell 6.78% week-on-week. However, the Hang Seng Tech Index continued to fall 10.54% week-on-week, hitting a new historical low.How will the market perform in the future? Let's look at the latest summary of strategies from the top ten securities firms.1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>The market's risk release is nearing its end, and the market is gradually shifting to the left.The national policy of common prosperity and the corresponding policy support in the future will not harm the logic of market-oriented business. Under the policy tone of preventing financial risks, the impact of local credit risk is also controllable. Investors still need to wait for more signals to correct policy misinterpretations. The third quarter is expected to be the low point for the domestic macroeconomy this year, with market liquidity remaining in a tight balance. Divergences in policy and economic outlook have led to disordered investor behavior, and the release of market risks is nearing its end. We will adhere to balanced allocation and gradually allocate to the left. In terms of specific allocation, the growth manufacturing sector has shifted from high-level sectors to relatively low-level sectors, such as the military industry, which was catalyzed by interim report performance, and 5G, communication equipment, and auto parts, whose fundamentals have reached a turning point. Within the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, we recommend automobiles, apparel, CXO, vaccines, and medical services; In the financial sector, we recommend some retail banks with good valuation or medium- to long-term growth potential, as well as securities firms positioned in wealth management.2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan Securities</a>The style is just beginning, not switching.Looking at future investment opportunities realistically, technological growth remains the main investment opportunity in the next stage, and the style is just beginning, not shifting. Mid-cap blue-chip stocks and technology growth are the core investment terms. Given the current economic pressure, fiscal stability, and severe energy conservation situation, new energy infrastructure is the preferred investment direction. We recommend six major sectors: photovoltaics, BIPV, wind power, ultra-high voltage power, charging piles, and pumped storage.3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">Guojin Securities</a>There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Shanghai Composite Index around 3300-3400 points.The fundamental reason for the increased short-term market volatility is that the market is still waiting for many uncertainties to resolve. In the current existing market, there is a lack of a clear main theme under high trading volume. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Shanghai Composite Index around 3300-3400 points. On the one hand, the performance of listed companies is still supported. On the other hand, after the valuation shift, driven by high performance growth, the current valuation of A-shares has a certain safety margin. Although valuation divergence remains significant structurally, there are still sectors in the market with a certain level of cost-effectiveness, such as the midstream manufacturing industry.4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>The current bull market is not over yet, and the market is still full of opportunities in the next six months.A-shares have fallen significantly in the past week, with the CSI 300 down 3.6% and the ChiNext Index down 4.6%. The market as a whole has been weak since July 1, and investors have doubts about the future. We believe that, considering the macro background and the profitability of micro-enterprises, this year is similar to 2010, with the second half being even more exciting. Drawing on historical annual market fluctuations and bull market cycles, the market remains full of opportunities in the next six months.Key conclusions: (1) Statistics show that the CSI 300 has risen by more than 15% at least once a year. This year's macroeconomic background is similar to that of 2010, and the second half of the stock market is expected to be even more exciting. (2) The ROE of listed companies is expected to continue to rise to Q1 2022, the market valuation level and sentiment indicators are acceptable, and the current bull market is not over yet. (3) The market is shifting from solitary enjoyment to shared enjoyment, taking into account both...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing and traditional midstream and downstream manufacturing, with attention paid to underserved industries such as securities firms.5.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">Huaxi Securities</a>High-growth sectors such as the Ningxia portfolio are the main allocation themes.Amid concerns about uncertainties surrounding domestic and international policies, market risk appetite has recently declined. However, the overall valuation of A-shares is currently reasonable, and the risks of sentiment and concentration of shares have been released during the short-term adjustment. As uncertainties subside, the market is expected to gradually emerge from the bottoming-out period. The core factor determining market style in the future will still be the relative advantage of profitability.Specifically, the valuation of the consumer sector has continued to decline recently, and more definite signals will have to wait until the fundamentals reach a turning point and the market regains consensus. Under the framework of \"cross-cycle adjustment\" of policies, current policies are more of a \"support without promotion\" approach, and the boost to traditional infrastructure (pro-cyclical) may be slower. Judging from the interim earnings forecast, the prosperity of growth sectors is difficult to disprove, and they will remain a key investment area in the future. Specifically, in terms of industry allocation, we recommend focusing on: \"new energy industry chain (electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, etc.), new infrastructure (intelligent transportation, etc.), and military industry\". Thematic investment focus: \"Expanding the connotation of carbon neutrality (green industry) and the main theme of HarmonyOS\".6.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>Countermeasures under the reproduction of microstructure adjustmentIncreased policy uncertainty has led to a double whammy of earnings and valuations in the A-share market, especially in sectors heavily affected by policies. The current micro-structure of the A-share market is still not healthy, and the recent policy environment of \"promoting common prosperity through high-quality development\" and \"specialized, refined and innovative\" will further strengthen the theme of \"small-cap growth\". We recommend focusing on the technology manufacturing sector, which is expected to recover in its interim results (forecast), supplemented by some infrastructure-related stocks. It is recommended to continue to allocate funds to \"market capitalization lower-tier cities\" - (1) new energy vehicles (lithium/diaphragm)/photovoltaics driven by multiple wheels of \"policy + technology + supply and demand gap\"; (2) \"Small population\" + growth and diffusion favored by industrial policies (military industry); (3) Manufacturing industry (construction machinery/cement) with easing cost suppression and marginal changes in demand.7.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600909\">Huaan Securities</a>Waiting for risk appetite to stabilize, the main growth theme remains promising.Market volatility has increased recently due to sentiment disturbances, but there is still no downward pressure at present. The overall structural market trend remains unchanged, and growth stocks are expected to continue to dominate, while cyclical stocks are also worth paying attention to. After market digestion, risk appetite is expected to stabilize. Currently, the macroeconomic, monetary, and market environments both domestically and internationally are relatively stable, so market risk appetite has the basic conditions for overall stability in the short term. In terms of specific structure, the interim reports of leading blue-chip stocks fell short of expectations, market supervision became stricter, and the progress of consumption recovery repeatedly fell short of expectations, resulting in weak consumer style preferences. Growth stocks, on the other hand, have a combination of liquidity, performance, and catalyst support, and their risk appetite remains relatively superior. Focus on two main themes with profitable advantages. Main Theme 1: Growth Style. Continue to focus on the semiconductor and new energy vehicle industry chains, which are currently experiencing absolutely high prosperity, while also paying attention to structural opportunities that benefit from growth diffusion. Main Theme Two: Cyclical style, focusing on high-growth structural opportunities, including the chemical industry, especially the phosphorus chemical sector, which is at a high level of growth, and the general automation equipment sector, which benefits from manufacturing upgrading.8.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601696\">BOC Securities</a>It is recommended to seize excess returns from undervalued cyclical sectors.The market has recently experienced a certain degree of correction, and the combination of internal and external factors has led to a decline in market risk appetite. From a market structure perspective, both directions that previously attracted market funds have faced certain fluctuations recently. The stable profit models of traditional consumer leaders may face certain potential impacts. In contrast, stocks in the new energy and photovoltaic sectors, although the industry prosperity continues to be high, are currently valued at high levels, and the hesitation of new funds has led to high-level fluctuations in the sector. In terms of sector allocation, it is recommended to seize the excess returns of undervalued pro-cyclical sectors. Secondly, we can pay attention to the valuation shift opportunities in the fourth quarter of the leading industries, represented by new energy and semiconductors. Looking ahead, with industry performance divergence, financial management firms and leading securities firms have greater certainty of growth and are expected to enjoy valuation premiums.9. Yuekai Securities: The capital market has vast potential for incremental funds.Rising expectations of Federal Reserve policy tightening may put short-term adjustment pressure on US stocks, but the impact on A-shares will be limited. In addition, with fund shares at historical highs, overseas long-term funds such as MSCI entering the market, and domestic long-term funds such as social security funds entering the market, the capital market has vast potential for incremental funds. With economic growth slowing in the second half of the year and liquidity expectations moderately easing, earnings remain a \"certainty\" for funds to pursue, and high-growth sectors and mid-cap sectors with widespread growth are still expected to show structural trends. Turnover rates in popular concept sectors have seen significant adjustments this week. After cooling trading and a short-term correction, the profit-making effect is expected to rebound. In terms of allocation direction, we recommend focusing on technology companies with long-term high-quality business models and sustainable performance, and core allocations to \"hard technology\" sectors such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors, military electronics and communications; The financial industry's semi-annual report season is underway. The overall valuation level of the financial industry is relatively cheap, and its performance in the first half of the year has recovered steadily. It is recommended to pay attention to financial sector stocks with outstanding semi-annual report performance.10.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>The downside potential for the index may be limited, and the market style may still be \"growth-oriented\".The downward trend in growth is now being widely expected, and the downward trend in most commodity prices is continuing. Given the latest domestic situation, the market may need to gradually reset its growth expectations for the second half of the year and next year. Against the backdrop of strengthened expectations of external policy withdrawal, a slowdown in China's growth rate, and concerns about industrial regulatory policies, it may be necessary to downplay the overall expectations for the equity index. However, considering the low overall market valuation, the downside potential of the index may be limited. Structurally, the reset of growth expectations means that macroeconomic policies may continue to remain stable with a slight easing trend. In terms of allocation, we believe we can further reduce allocation to strong cyclical sectors, and the market style may still be \"growth-oriented\".Allocation recommendations: Control the pace of growth stocks and allocate a balanced portfolio to some established blue-chip stocks. (1) High prosperity, competitive or growing industrial chains in China: electric vehicle industry chain, photovoltaics, technology hardware and software, electronic semiconductors, some manufacturing capital goods, etc. (2) General consumer sectors: Bottom-up stock selection in general consumer sectors, including daily necessities, home appliances, automobiles and auto parts, pharmaceuticals and medical devices, and light industry and home furnishings; (3) Gradually reduce cyclical allocation but focus on some cycles with favorable structures or structural growth characteristics: non-ferrous metals such as lithium, chemicals, and financial leaders that benefit from the major development trend of wealth and asset management.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/482283\">格隆汇</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f138f3fb791af2ca9b5d974d311cd40d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/482283","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2161740649","content_text":"上周，A股市场呈现震荡下跌，沪指累计跌2.53%，深证成指累计跌3.69%，创业板指累计下跌4.55%，北向资金累计净流出104.91亿元，沪深两市成交额已连续第23个交易日突破1万亿元。港股受权重股持续大跌影响，恒指按周大跌5.84%，国指周跌6.78%，但恒生科技指数继续周大跌10.54%，再创历史新低。\n后市市场具体如何演绎，且看最新十大券商策略汇总。\n1. 中信证券：市场的风险释放已接近尾声 逐步左侧布局\n共同富裕的国策方针以及未来相应的政策配套并不会伤害市场化商业逻辑，防范金融风险的政策基调下局部信用风险的影响也可控，投资者仍需等待更多信号来纠偏政策误读。预计三季度是国内宏观经济的年内低点，市场流动性依旧维持紧平衡，政策和经济前景的分歧造成投资者行为紊乱，市场风险释放已接近尾声，坚持均衡配置，逐步左侧布局。具体配置上，成长制造板块里从高位的赛道转向相对低位的赛道，如受中报业绩催化的军工以及基本面迎来拐点的5G、通信设备、汽车零部件；消费和医药板块内推荐汽车、服饰、CXO、疫苗和医疗服务等；金融板块推荐部分具备估值性价比或中长期成长逻辑的零售型银行和卡位财富管理的券商。\n2. 国泰君安：风格才刚刚开始而不是切换\n务实地看待未来投资机会，科技成长仍是下一阶段主要投资机会，风格才刚刚开始而不是切换。中盘蓝筹、科技成长为投资的核心词。在经济现压力财政稳增长和严峻的节能形势下，能源新基建是当下投资的优选方向，推荐光伏、BIPV、风电、特高压、充电桩、抽水蓄能等六大赛道。\n3. 国金证券：上证指数在3300-3400点附近无须过度悲观\n短期市场波动加大的根本原因是市场仍等待诸多不确定性落地，当前存量市场中，高成交额下市场缺乏明确主线。上证指数在3300-3400点附近无须过度悲观，一方面上市公司业绩仍有支撑，另一方面，经历了估值切换后，在业绩高增长的驱动下，当前A股估值具有一定的安全边际。尽管结构上估值分化仍较为明显，但市场中仍存在具备一定性价比的板块，比如中游制造行业。\n4. 海通证券：本轮牛市尚未走完 未来半年市场仍充满机会\n最近一周A股下跌明显，沪深300跌3.6%、创业板指跌4.6%，7月1日以来市场整体走的较弱，投资者对后市心存疑虑。我们认为，结合宏观背景和微观企业盈利看，今年类似2010年，下半场更精彩。借鉴历史上市场年度波动和牛市周期规律，未来半年市场仍充满机会。\n核心结论：（1）统计显示，沪深300每年至少一次15%以上行情，今年宏观背景类似2010年，股市后半场望更精彩。（2）上市公司ROE望继续回升至22Q1，市场估值水平和情绪指标尚可，本轮牛市尚未走完。（3）市场从独乐乐走向众乐乐，兼顾智能制造和传统中下游制造，并注意洼地行业，如券商等。\n5. 华西证券：宁组合等高景气成长是配置主线\n在海内外政策走向不确定的担忧下，近期市场风险偏好有所调降，但目前A股整体估值合理，并在短期调整中释放了情绪面及筹码集中的风险，随着不确定因素的落地，市场将有望逐步走出磨底期。后续决定市场风格的核心因素仍在于盈利的相对优势。\n具体来看，消费板块近期估值持续调降，更确定的信号还需等待基本面拐点后，市场重拾共识；政策“跨周期调节”的框架下，当前政策更多是“托而不举”，对传统基建（顺周期）的提振可能会慢一些。从中报预告来看，成长赛道的景气度难以证伪，后市仍是重点配置方向。具体到行业配置上，建议关注：“新能源产业链（电气设备、有色、化工等）、新基建（智能交通等）、军工”等；主题投资关注：“碳中和（绿色产业）内涵拓展、鸿蒙主线”。\n6. 广发证券：微观结构调整再现下的应对之策\n政策不确定加大使得A股尤其是受政策影响较大的板块出现了业绩估值双杀，当前A股市场微观结构仍未健康，近期“在高质量发展中促进共同富裕”和“专精特新”政策环境也都会进一步强化“小盘成长”主线。建议关注中报业绩（预告）修复的科技制造业，辅以部分基建受益品种。建议继续配置“市值下沉”——（1）“政策+技术+供需缺口”多轮驱动的新能源车（锂/隔膜）/光伏；（2）“人少”+ 产业政策倾斜的成长扩散（军工）；（3）成本压制缓和+需求边际变化的制造业（工程机械/水泥）。\n7. 华安证券：等待风险偏好重归平稳 成长主线仍可期待\n情绪扰动近期市场波动加大，但目前仍不具备趋势性下行的压力，结构市行情的大格局未变，成长风格有望继续占优，周期风格也值得关注。经过市场消化后，风险偏好有望复归平稳。目前国内外的宏观环境、货币环境及市场环境都相对稳定，因此短期内市场风险偏好也具备整体平稳的基础条件。具体结构上，白马龙头中报不及预期、市场监管趋严、消费复苏进程屡不及预期，导致消费风格偏好较弱。而成长风格流动性、业绩、催化剂支撑兼备，风险偏好仍相对占优。关注两条具有盈利优势的主线。主线一：成长风格，继续关注景气处于绝对高位的半导体、新能源车产业链，同时关注受益于成长扩散的结构性机会；主线二：周期风格，关注高景气结构性机会，包括景气处于高位的化工，尤其是磷化工板块，以及受益于制造业升级的通用自动设备板块。\n8. 中银证券：建议把握低估值顺周期板块超额收益\n近期市场出现一定幅度的调整，内外因素共振导致市场风险偏好出现下行。从市场结构层面来看，前期市场资金抱团的两大方向近期均面临一定波动。传统消费龙头稳定的盈利模式或面临一定潜在冲击，而反观新能源、光伏为代表的赛道股，行业景气虽然延续高位但当前估值高企，新增资金犹豫不决导致板块高位震荡。行业配置方面，建议把握低估值顺周期板块超额收益。其次，可关注新能源和半导体代表的主导产业四季度板块估值切换机会。往后看，行业业绩分化下，财管特色和龙头券商成长确定性更高，有望享受估值溢价。\n9. 粤开证券：资本市场增量资金潜力广阔\n美联储政策收紧的预期提升，或将导致美股短期调整压力，但对A股影响有限。此外，基金份额在历史高位、MSCI等海外长期资金入市、社保基金等国内长期资金入市等，资本市场增量资金潜力广阔。在下半年经济增速趋缓+流动性预期适度宽松之下，业绩仍是资金追捧的“确定性”，高景气板块、景气扩散的中等市值板块仍有望走出结构性行情。热门概念板块的换手率本周有较大的调整，交投降温、短期补跌后，挣钱效应有望回升。配置方向上，建议关注长期拥有优质商业模式、业绩可持续的科技企业，核心配置新能源汽车、半导体、军工电子和通信等“硬科技”板块；金融行业的半年报行情进行中，金融行业整体估值水平较便宜，且上半年业绩稳健修复，建议关注半年报业绩表现突出的金融板块标的。\n10. 中金公司：指数下行空间可能有限 市场风格或仍会“偏向成长”\n目前增长下行趋势也正在得到更广泛预期，大部分商品价格下行趋势进一步延续。综合国内最新形势，市场可能要逐步重设下半年及明年的增长预期，在外围政策退出预期强化、中国增速趋降和产业监管政策担忧的背景下，可能要淡化对权益指数的整体预期，但考虑市场整体估值不高，指数下行空间可能也有限。结构层面上，增长预期重设意味着宏观政策可能延续稳中趋松，配置上我们认为可以进一步减配强周期板块，市场风格或仍会“偏向成长”。\n配置建议：成长风格把控节奏，部分“老白马”均衡配置。（1）高景气度、中国已具备竞争力或正在壮大的产业链：电动车产业链、光伏、科技硬件与软件、电子半导体、部分制造业资本品等。（2）泛消费行业：在泛消费，包括日常用品、家电、汽车及零部件、医药及医疗器械、轻工家居等领域自下而上择股；（3）逐步降低周期配置但关注部分结构有利或具备结构性成长特征的周期：有色金属如锂等，化工以及受益于财富及资管大发展趋势的金融龙头。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5909,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5613416,"commentId":"5613416","gmtCreate":1629678268029,"gmtModify":1635145181862,"authorId":3585607107146910,"author":{"id":3585607107146910,"idStr":"3585607107146910","authorId":3585607107146910,"name":"阿弥陀佛阿弥陀佛阿弥陀佛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65376074efd4faf8b600b5173eb0f0c4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":832731894,"objectIdStr":"832731894","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[微笑] 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