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TIDARAT
2021-08-23

The global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?

《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积

The global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?

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CodyTang
·2021-08-23
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":835240012,"tweetId":"835240012","gmtCreate":1629723743636,"gmtModify":1676530111553,"author":{"id":3578895363297107,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorId":3578895363297107,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Hi&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hi&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Hi","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835240012","repostId":1197421899,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197421899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629700881,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197421899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 14:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197421899","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积","content":"Rickards, author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it is. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Unconsciously, a new front of a currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers have not noticed it is simply because the situation has not yet evolved to the point where all parties involved have openly manipulated monetary policy without scruple, and that day is not far away, maybe early 2022 will come.This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, originally a lawyer, happened to be the legal adviser of a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial turmoil, and participated in promoting the rescue operation led by the Federal Reserve, which saved the American financial system from major damage. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare consultant of the Pentagon.However, Rickards is best known to investors as the author of best-selling financial books, especially Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally makes people dare not take it lightly. In the latest article, Rickards expounded his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the US dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strengthening of the U.S. dollar will also have a serious impact on U.S. exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, The U.S. Treasury Department will most likely weaken the U.S. dollar, and the curtain of the currency war will begin.Let's carefully analyze the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.The fact is that since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then US President Barack Obama began to weaken the US dollar.Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that the weakening of the US dollar will inevitably damage the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they obviously don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its own reasons objectively. After all, the United States is the largest economy in the world. If the American economy falls into recession, none of the other major economies in the world can survive alone.After the rare Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, to ensure the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new round of recession, weakening the U.S. dollar has become the top priority. The unlucky one this time is Europe, the US and the rest of the world's economies haven't suffered much.Temporary truce in currency warsThe American policy really worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the exchange rate of the US dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that at about the same time, the price of gold hit an all-time high, and the exchange rate of the euro also soared. Needless to say, as for the American economy, it has received much-needed support.After that, the United States began to release goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar had dropped to 1.05 US dollars per euro. Americans' judgment at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the falling euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and promote the economic rebound of the euro zone.Since then, the cross exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has basically oscillated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1 euro to 1.18 US dollars, which is almost exactly the same as today, four years later.Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war does not necessarily mean that only the two parties involved or all parties go into battle shirtless, causing the cross-exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation is extreme. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.Another point is that the most fundamental reason for the outbreak of currency war is that the debt is too high and the economic growth is insufficient. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or that economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners-in other words, the war is still likely to break out at any time.Interestingly, although it is likely that the United States will rapidly weaken the US dollar in the near future as part of its own economic rescue plan, in the short term, the US dollar will have a strong market first. Why is this?A shaky recoveryFirst of all, the crux of the problem is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, the growth rate of 6.5% GDP in the second quarter of the United States is lower than the widely expected outside world, but the real economic situation is even worse than the figures show.The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker read 13% in April and dropped to 7.5% in June. As we all know, the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that in just three months in the second quarter, the growth prospects have been greatly weakened. At the same time, it also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, then the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also worrying. For example, as Americans are letting go of stimulus checks sent by the government, imports are booming.But on the export side, the story is completely different, which shows that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far inferior to that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply don't have the appetite to eat many American imports.The situation continues to deteriorateEven more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months from October 2020, private sector revenue grew virtually zero. It's terrible to see this alone, but to think again that the government subsidies that support the personal income situation are expiring one after another, people can't help but become more pessimistic about the prospects.The extra subsidy of unemployment benefits has entered the countdown to its disappearance. The order prohibiting homeowners from evicting tenants is less than a few dozen days left, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan has expired. All in all, in the short term, there is no possibility of a new plan for large-scale check distribution.Now that the wave of government cash distribution has reached its final stage, while personal income has stagnated and exports have declined, so what else can the U.S. GDP continue to grow in the second half of 2021? Hope?By November this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know how bad the economy is doing. In addition, by then, they will most likely have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several consecutive months.The trouble is that it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn by then. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left before the 2022 mid-term elections. The Democratic Party and the White House will be completely panicked, and by then, the only thing they can do is ask the Treasury Department to do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.This is exactly the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, why did the dollar show strength before that?Global liquidity crisisThe answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. Of course, a crisis like this can't happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two behind the scenes to make the market and the public fully aware of how severe the status quo has become.Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:--Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar has been rejected by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation just shows how serious their problems have become.--Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and large financial institutions predict that the trend of interest rates in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that in the long term, the economy will have a high probability of recession.--Since March, the yield level of ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investment targets because of fear, and everyone expects that economic growth will slow down in the future, easing inflationary pressures and even recession.Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when and how serious the global liquidity crisis will always break out. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors will desperately pursue security, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n腾讯美股2021-08-23 14:41\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nRickards, author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it is. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Unconsciously, a new front of a currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers have not noticed it is simply because the situation has not yet evolved to the point where all parties involved have openly manipulated monetary policy without scruple, and that day is not far away, maybe early 2022 will come.This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, originally a lawyer, happened to be the legal adviser of a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial turmoil, and participated in promoting the rescue operation led by the Federal Reserve, which saved the American financial system from major damage. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare consultant of the Pentagon.However, Rickards is best known to investors as the author of best-selling financial books, especially Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally makes people dare not take it lightly. In the latest article, Rickards expounded his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the US dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strengthening of the U.S. dollar will also have a serious impact on U.S. exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, The U.S. Treasury Department will most likely weaken the U.S. dollar, and the curtain of the currency war will begin.Let's carefully analyze the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.The fact is that since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then US President Barack Obama began to weaken the US dollar.Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that the weakening of the US dollar will inevitably damage the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they obviously don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its own reasons objectively. After all, the United States is the largest economy in the world. If the American economy falls into recession, none of the other major economies in the world can survive alone.After the rare Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, to ensure the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new round of recession, weakening the U.S. dollar has become the top priority. The unlucky one this time is Europe, the US and the rest of the world's economies haven't suffered much.Temporary truce in currency warsThe American policy really worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the exchange rate of the US dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that at about the same time, the price of gold hit an all-time high, and the exchange rate of the euro also soared. Needless to say, as for the American economy, it has received much-needed support.After that, the United States began to release goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar had dropped to 1.05 US dollars per euro. Americans' judgment at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the falling euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and promote the economic rebound of the euro zone.Since then, the cross exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has basically oscillated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1 euro to 1.18 US dollars, which is almost exactly the same as today, four years later.Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war does not necessarily mean that only the two parties involved or all parties go into battle shirtless, causing the cross-exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation is extreme. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.Another point is that the most fundamental reason for the outbreak of currency war is that the debt is too high and the economic growth is insufficient. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or that economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners-in other words, the war is still likely to break out at any time.Interestingly, although it is likely that the United States will rapidly weaken the US dollar in the near future as part of its own economic rescue plan, in the short term, the US dollar will have a strong market first. Why is this?A shaky recoveryFirst of all, the crux of the problem is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, the growth rate of 6.5% GDP in the second quarter of the United States is lower than the widely expected outside world, but the real economic situation is even worse than the figures show.The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker read 13% in April and dropped to 7.5% in June. As we all know, the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that in just three months in the second quarter, the growth prospects have been greatly weakened. At the same time, it also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, then the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also worrying. For example, as Americans are letting go of stimulus checks sent by the government, imports are booming.But on the export side, the story is completely different, which shows that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far inferior to that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply don't have the appetite to eat many American imports.The situation continues to deteriorateEven more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months from October 2020, private sector revenue grew virtually zero. It's terrible to see this alone, but to think again that the government subsidies that support the personal income situation are expiring one after another, people can't help but become more pessimistic about the prospects.The extra subsidy of unemployment benefits has entered the countdown to its disappearance. The order prohibiting homeowners from evicting tenants is less than a few dozen days left, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan has expired. All in all, in the short term, there is no possibility of a new plan for large-scale check distribution.Now that the wave of government cash distribution has reached its final stage, while personal income has stagnated and exports have declined, so what else can the U.S. GDP continue to grow in the second half of 2021? Hope?By November this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know how bad the economy is doing. In addition, by then, they will most likely have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several consecutive months.The trouble is that it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn by then. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left before the 2022 mid-term elections. The Democratic Party and the White House will be completely panicked, and by then, the only thing they can do is ask the Treasury Department to do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.This is exactly the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, why did the dollar show strength before that?Global liquidity crisisThe answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. Of course, a crisis like this can't happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two behind the scenes to make the market and the public fully aware of how severe the status quo has become.Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:--Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar has been rejected by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation just shows how serious their problems have become.--Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and large financial institutions predict that the trend of interest rates in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that in the long term, the economy will have a high probability of recession.--Since March, the yield level of ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investment targets because of fear, and everyone expects that economic growth will slow down in the future, easing inflationary pressures and even recession.Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when and how serious the global liquidity crisis will always break out. However, everyone must admit that the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, which means that the pressure is rapidly accumulating and the crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors will desperately pursue security, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg\">腾讯美股</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf6fcde93937ee1cea8212ac47e8628","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197421899","content_text":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n\n\n不知不觉间，一条货币战争的全新战线已经隐隐出现在地平线上，多数观察家之所以尚未注意到，只不过因为局面还没有演变到参与各方已经毫无忌惮地公然操控货币政策的那个地步，而那一天却也为时不远了，也许2022年年初就会来到。\n这个结论来自著名投资人、经济学家里卡兹（Jim Rickards）。里卡兹是一位拥有万花筒般经历的人物——他在华尔街打拼数十年，最初是律师出身，在亚洲金融风暴期间恰好担任对冲基金长期资产管理公司的法律顾问，参与了推动联储主导的救援行动，使美国金融系统避免了重大损害，入行后，他又自学经济学，成为金融风险研究专家，并担任五角大楼金融战顾问。\n不过，里卡兹最为广大投资者所熟知的身份，还是财经畅销书籍作者，2012年出版的《货币战争》（Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis）尤其享有广泛影响。这样一位货币战争专家发出了前述的预警，自然让人不敢等闲视之。在最新发布的文章当中，里卡兹阐述了自己在这个问题上的看法，以下即他的文章全文。\n不久之后，这个世界大概率会经历一轮重大的市场破坏，其结果就是，美元相对于其他主要货币的汇率大幅度走高。在这种情况下，美国就将遭受双重痛苦的打击，即市场破坏带来的痛苦之外，美元急剧走强还会对美国出口，以及出口相关的就业机会构成严重冲击，在这种情况下，美国财政部就大概率会出手削弱美元了，而货币战争的大幕也将就此拉开。\n下面就来仔细分析一下这番论说所依据的宏观经济图景。\n事实就是，从2010年开始，这个世界就进入了一场隐形的低烈度货币战争当中——在2007年至2008年的全球金融危机之后，为了刺激经济，时任美国总统奥巴马开始了削弱美元的操作。\n白宫和财政部都清楚地知道，美元趋向疲软，必然会损害到欧洲和日本的经济增长前景，但是他们对此显然根本就不在乎。当然，这种想法客观上也自有其道理，毕竟美国是全球最大的经济体，如果美国经济陷入衰退，世界其他主要经济体也没有一家可以独善其身。\n在2007年至2009年罕见的大衰退之后，要确保美国经济持续复苏，避开新一轮的衰退，削弱美元就变成了重中之重的关键任务。这一次倒霉的是欧洲，美国和世界其他经济体并没有遭受太大的苦难。\n货币战争暂时休战\n美国人的政策果然奏效了。到了2011年8月，联储的贸易加权指数显示，美元汇率跌到了历史最低点。完全可以理解的是，大致就在同时，黄金价格冲上了历史最高点，欧元汇率也猛涨。至于美国经济则不必说，由此得到了急需的支撑。\n在那之后，美国才开始对欧洲释放出善意，允许美元适度走强。到了2016年10月，欧元对美元汇率降低到了1欧元兑换1.05美元。美国人当时的判断是，自己的经济已经达成了足够的强势，已经完全经得起欧元走低的冲击，有足够的空间让欧洲人去操作，推动欧元区经济反弹。\n从那之后，欧元对美元的交叉汇率基本上都是在窄幅振荡。比如，2017年7月1日，欧元对美元汇率为1欧元兑换1.18美元，几乎和四年后的今天几乎是完全一致。\n在这里，大家首先必须明白的是，所谓货币战争，不见得就只有参与双方或者各方赤膊上阵，使得交叉汇率剧烈波动，估值极端的这一种面目。货币战争也有相对风平浪静的周期，而且这样的周期还能够持续很长的时间。\n还有一点，货币战争之所以会爆发，最根本的原因不外乎债务过高，而经济增长不足，只要这种根本原因一直存在下去，总归会有这个或者那个经济体试图通过让自己的货币相对于主要贸易伙伴贬值来刺激经济增长——换言之，战争依然随时都有爆发的可能性。\n有趣的是，虽然说起来，美国很可能会在不久后着手迅速削弱美元，来作为自己的经济援救计划的一部分，但是在短期内，美元首先还会有一波坚挺的行情。这是为什么呢？\n摇摇欲坠的复苏\n问题的关键首先就在于，目前白宫和美国财政部其实并不真正了解美国经济，或者更加明确地说，他们并不知道美国经济当下疲软到了怎样的地步。众所周知，美国第二季度国内生产总值6.5%的增长速度是低于外界的广泛预期的，但是真实经济的情况，甚至要比数字所显示的更加糟糕。\n亚特兰大联储的GDPNow追踪器，其读数4月间还是13%，到了6月就降至7.5%，而众所周知，第二季度的真实经济增速是6.5%。这也就意味着，在第二季度这短短的三个月时间当中，增长前景就遭到了大幅度的削弱。这同时还说明，如果4月和5月的经济增长相对较为强势的话，那么最后一个月份6月的实际表现其实还不及季度平均的6.5%。\n这显然让人不能不对接下来的第三季度越发忧心忡忡。\n与此同时，除了万众瞩目的国内生产总值数字之外，其他同时发布的经济数据也颇多让人担心的地方。比如，由于美国人都在放手使用政府派出的刺激支票，进口一片旺盛景象。\n可是在出口一侧，故事便完全不同了，这也正说明了世界其他许多经济体的表现，其实远不及美国。用最简单直白的话来说，这些其他经济体，许多处境都非常糟糕，因此他们根本没有胃口吃下多少美国进口商品。\n局面还在继续恶化\n更加具有戏剧性的是，美国人的个人收入年化下滑速度达到了30%。从2020年10月算起，长达八个月的时间之内，私营部门收入实质上是零增长。单单看到这些已经很可怕了，而要再想到，支撑着个人收入局面的政府补贴正在一项又一项地次第到期，就让人不能不对前景越发悲观。\n失业救济的额外补贴，其消失已经进入了倒计时。禁止房主驱逐租客的命令也剩不了几十天了，而且还被贴上了违宪的标签。与此同时，薪资保障计划（PPP）的贷款已经到期了。总而言之，短期之内，也看不到大规模派发支票的新计划出炉的可能性。\n现在，政府派发现金的大潮已经到了最后阶段，而与此同时，个人收入停滞不前，出口遭遇下滑，那么，在2021年下半年，美国国内生产总值想要继续增长，还有什么可以指望？\n到了今年11月，第三季度国内生产总值报告出炉时，拜登总统和耶伦财长就会知道经济表现到底有多糟糕了。此外，到那时，他们大概率还已经领教了连续几个月通货膨胀面和就业数据面的坏消息。\n麻烦在于，到那时候再想办法去阻止经济猛烈下滑的势头，也注定将是为时已晚。还有，从政治视角看，那时距离2022年中期选举，也只剩下了不到一年。民主党方面和白宫将彻底陷入恐慌，而到那时，他们唯一能做的就是要求财政部采取一切必要手段削弱美元。\n这正是美元将在2022年变得疲软的根本逻辑。那么，在此之前，美元为何会呈现出强势呢？\n全球流动性危机\n答案是，一场全球流动性危机其实已经在进行之中了。类似这样的危机当然不可能是一夜之间发生的，而通常至少要在幕后酝酿一两年的时间，才会让市场和大众充分意识到现状到底已经变得有多严峻。\n下面就是一些值得注意的全球金融压力预警信号：\n——许多国家的政府都在减持美国国债。这当然并不是意味着美元遭到了这些国家的嫌弃，而是意味着，这些国家的银行系统急需获得美元，他们为了换取美元，已经不惜忍痛卖出美债了，而这种不得已的操作正说明他们的问题已经严重到了怎样的地步。\n——一些特定的欧元期货曲线已经略微反转，形成了所谓现货溢价。这就说明，银行和大金融机构预计，欧元区的利率走势是，短期内利率走高，而长期内利率走低，前者说明短期内金融压力将增大，后者说明长期来看，经济大概率将出现衰退。\n——自从3月以来，十年期美国国债收益率水平持续下滑，已经下跌了不少。这就说明几乎全体交易者都在因为恐惧情绪而追逐品质更高的投资对象，而且大家预计，未来经济增长将会减速，让通货膨胀压力减轻，甚至可能发生衰退。\n当然，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n不必说，当这场危机真正到来时，全球投资者必然会拼命追求安全，而美元和黄金届时就将大幅度走强。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3358,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5623859,"commentId":"5623859","gmtCreate":1629731912059,"gmtModify":1663232804746,"authorId":3582531877047380,"author":{"id":3582531877047380,"idStr":"3582531877047380","authorId":3582531877047380,"name":"CodyTang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd76a195d33f5dc7317cca7f1fb80e0c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":835240012,"objectIdStr":"835240012","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[得意]","text":"[得意]","html":"[得意]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}