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2021-09-22

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Morgan Stanley eyes a correction, S&P 500 falling as much as 20%

Large-cap stocks are in a mid-cycle transition with two potential downward paths: fire and ice, Morg

Morgan Stanley eyes a correction, S&P 500 falling as much as 20%

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With our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&amp;P 500.\"</li>\n <li>Wilson outlines two outcomes:</li>\n</ul>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Fire</b>, more typical, where the economy overheats and the Fed removes accommodation. It will \"lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500.\"</li>\n <li><b>Ice</b>,&nbsp;where given \"the extraordinary fiscal stimulus\" during the recession, \"the inevitable deceleration in growth will be much worse than what is currently expected\" and lead to a drop of 20% or more.</li>\n</ol>\n<ul>\n <li>The ice scenario, where \"earnings revisions and higher frequency macro data points decelerate amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure\" is starting to look more likely, Wilson says.</li>\n <li>To play this, Morgan Stanley recommends a barbell strategy of Health Care<span>(NYSEARCA:XLV)</span>and Consumer Staples<span>(NYSEARCA:XLY)</span>, while also keeping in Financials<span>(NYSEARCA:XLF)</span>for the potential fire scenario where rates rise.</li>\n <li>Investors&nbsp;should watch these S&amp;P support and resistance levels, BofA says.</li>\n</ul>\n<p></p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley eyes a correction, S&P 500 falling as much as 20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-22 09:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3741885-morgan-stanley-calls-for-a-correction-with-sp-500-down-as-much-as-20><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Large-cap stocks are in a mid-cycle transition with two potential downward paths: fire and ice, Morgan Stanley strategists say.\n\"Many commentators and clients continue to point to the S&P 500 near all...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3741885-morgan-stanley-calls-for-a-correction-with-sp-500-down-as-much-as-20\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3741885-morgan-stanley-calls-for-a-correction-with-sp-500-down-as-much-as-20","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1111011992","content_text":"Large-cap stocks are in a mid-cycle transition with two potential downward paths: fire and ice, Morgan Stanley strategists say.\n\"Many commentators and clients continue to point to the S&P 500 near all-time highs as a leading indicator and rationale for even higher prices ahead,\" Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Michael Wilson writes in a note. \"However, in our view, the relative strength of the S&P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY)and Nasdaq 100(NASDAQ:QQQ)is further confirmation that the market understands the mid-cycle transition narrative and has bought into it hook, line and sinker.\"\n\"The question is whether the mid-cycle transition will end with a correction in this index as it typically does, or whether it's different this time? With our year end target 10% below current levels, our view is clear: the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500.\"\nWilson outlines two outcomes:\n\n\nFire, more typical, where the economy overheats and the Fed removes accommodation. It will \"lead to a modest and healthy 10% correction in the S&P 500.\"\nIce, where given \"the extraordinary fiscal stimulus\" during the recession, \"the inevitable deceleration in growth will be much worse than what is currently expected\" and lead to a drop of 20% or more.\n\n\nThe ice scenario, where \"earnings revisions and higher frequency macro data points decelerate amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure\" is starting to look more likely, Wilson says.\nTo play this, Morgan Stanley recommends a barbell strategy of Health Care(NYSEARCA:XLV)and Consumer Staples(NYSEARCA:XLY), while also keeping in Financials(NYSEARCA:XLF)for the potential fire scenario where rates rise.\nInvestors should watch these S&P support and resistance levels, BofA says.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":311,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}