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2021-09-07

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Cold thinking about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy: expectation guidance or discretionary decision

转眼美联储主席鲍威尔在8月27日的Jackson Hole全球央行会议上发表了“疫情时代的货币政策”讲话已过一周，会议上整体维持同7月FOMC会议一致的鸽派论调，并未传达过多超预期的增量信息。对于市场

Cold thinking about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy: expectation guidance or discretionary decision

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·2021-09-07
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":880328398,"tweetId":"880328398","gmtCreate":1631021741114,"gmtModify":1676530444509,"author":{"id":3550981834405712,"idStr":"3550981834405712","authorId":3550981834405712,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>…</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>…</body></html>","text":"…","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/880328398","repostId":2165912804,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2165912804","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631018943,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2165912804?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-07 20:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Cold thinking about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy: expectation guidance or discretionary decision","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165912804","media":"格隆汇","summary":"转眼美联储主席鲍威尔在8月27日的Jackson Hole全球央行会议上发表了“疫情时代的货币政策”讲话已过一周，会议上整体维持同7月FOMC会议一致的鸽派论调，并未传达过多超预期的增量信息。对于市场","content":"In the blink of an eye, it has been a week since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech on \"Monetary Policy in the Era of the Epidemic\" at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting on August 27. The overall meeting maintained a dovish tone consistent with the July FOMC meeting and did not convey too much more than expected incremental information. Regarding the reduction of the asset purchase plan (Taper) that the market is concerned about, Powell did not give clear time guidance, but he said that \"if the economic development is roughly in line with expectations, then it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases this year.\"How the exit of the ultra-loose monetary policy in the United States in the post-epidemic era will be interpreted and how it will affect the global financial market is a topic that economists and investors around the world continue to pay attention to. Should investors follow the FED's expected guidance or try to see the core factors of deep-seated camera decisions? Since the financial crisis in 2008, the FED has actually accumulated very rich experience on the road of withdrawal, which is worth looking for future guidance from history. We choose to try to objectively find the future exit path and probability after the hustle and bustle after the meeting.<h3>01</h3><h3>U.S. epidemic repeatedly drags down economic recovery</h3>Recurrent epidemics are still one of the uncertainties facing the global economy in the fourth quarter. Since the second quarter, the global epidemic has rebounded significantly, and the Delta mutant virus has continued to spread, spreading rapidly in emerging market countries around India, as well as developed market countries such as the United Kingdom and Spain. Since July, the current round of the epidemic in the United States has started. The number of newly confirmed cases in a single day has risen rapidly, and the number of new deaths in a single day has also shown a rapid upward trend. As of the end of August, the current round of the epidemic in the United States has not clearly shown a peak and a decline. signs. The epidemic has repeatedly caused a certain drag on the recovery of household consumption and service industries. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell sharply in August, exceeding expectations. The United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Although the service PMI is still in the expansion range, it has fallen sharply for three consecutive months.At present, the world is in a state of continuous spread of the epidemic and accelerated vaccination at the same time. This phenomenon is especially obvious in the United States.According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of the end of August, 61.8% of the total population in the United States had received one dose of vaccine, and 48.2% of the total population had received two doses of vaccine. Compared with European countries, the proportion of the population who had received one dose of vaccine was higher than that in European countries. At the level of 70%, the vaccination rate in the United States is relatively low. Moreover, the vaccination rate in the United States has slowed down significantly since April, but since the outbreak of the current epidemic in July, the vaccination rate has increased slightly. According to media reports, the enthusiasm of U.S. residents for vaccination has increased, and the U.S. government also plans to start providing vaccine in September. Vaccine booster shot. Except<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>In addition to the relatively low vaccination rate, the vaccination of U.S. residents shows obvious regional differentiation. The vaccination rate of Republican-led states is significantly lower than that of Democratic-led states. States with low vaccination rates are also areas with severe repeated epidemics. Judging from the experience of countries with high vaccination rates such as the United Kingdom and Israel, the United States will face the coexistence of vaccine popularization and continuous virus spread in the short term.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a0530c5b32d9c735b16275e43d23124\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure: New confirmed cases and deaths in the United States in a single day, Wind<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6d2c024c3412aff6ee9731ffc5cb01f\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure: The regional differentiation of vaccination in the United States is obvious, CDC<h3>02</h3><h3>There is still a long way to go before the U.S. economy fully recovers, and internal circulation repair is the core</h3>At present, the U.S. economy is still far from fully recovering. The recurrence of the epidemic and the withdrawal of special fiscal stimulus from the epidemic are likely to slow down the U.S. economic growth momentum in the third quarter.After the epidemic, the United States has carried out three rounds of large-scale fiscal stimulus plans, especially direct subsidies for residents, which are the key to the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy in this round. U.S. household consumption expenditure accounts for about 68% of its total GDP, which has a relatively stable month-on-month positive pull on GDP. Therefore, when the special financial subsidies for the epidemic gradually expire, the sustainability of U.S. residents' consumption expenditure is an important uncertainty about whether U.S. economic growth will be stable in the second half of the year and whether structural inflationary pressures can be alleviated.To observe the sustainability of U.S. residents' consumption expenditure, we can track the internal circulation transmission behavior of U.S. residents' employment, income, and consumption, as well as changes in U.S. residents' consumption confidence and inflation expectations. The United States created 943,000 new non-agricultural jobs in July, and the number of new jobs in May and June was revised upward to a total of 119,000, exceeding market expectations. Since the second quarter, employment in the U.S. service industry has continued to improve, and the overall non-farm payrolls have recovered to about 96% before the epidemic. However, the U.S. job market is still facing a situation of short supply. The labor force participation rate was 61.7% in July, compared with 63.3% before the epidemic. The number of job vacancies rose to 10.07 million in June, compared with only about 5 million before the epidemic, indicating that the demand for recruitment by enterprises is strong, but the labor force is not willing to find jobs.The U.S. job market is expected to continue to recover in the fourth quarter. With the increase in vaccination rates and the expiration of special unemployment subsidies due to the epidemic, labor supply is expected to be further released.As the U.S. job market continues to improve, labor wage income still supports the income of U.S. residents. If the income growth rate is not weak, household consumption expenditure will still be guaranteed in the fourth quarter.In July, the income of residents in the United States was 1.11% month-on-month, of which personal transfer payment income contributed 0.60%, employee compensation contributed 0.54%, and the contribution of salary income increased for three consecutive months. Since the beginning of this year, the month-on-month growth rate of salary income has been strong. In July, U.S. residents' expenditure was 0.27% month-on-month, of which service consumption was 1% month-on-month, durable goods consumption was-2.29% month-on-month, and non-durable goods consumption was-0.38% month-on-month, reflecting that the focus of U.S. residents' consumption is shifting from goods to services. On the one hand, residents' enthusiasm for durable goods consumption will cool down with the expiration of financial subsidies for the epidemic. On the other hand, with the popularization of vaccines and the normalization of social activities, there is still much room for recovery in service consumption such as catering and tourism.In terms of inflation, the production capacity on the supply side of the United States continues to recover, and the consumption structure of households on the demand side is changing, all of which will help alleviate the current structural pressure on inflation in the United States.The U.S. CPI in July was 0.5% month-on-month, and the core CPI was 0.3% month-on-month. Compared with the high growth point in April, it dropped sharply, and the pressure on inflation month-on-month growth decreased. After the epidemic, inflation in the United States showed obvious structural differentiation, and price growth pressure was mainly concentrated in some industries, such as automobiles, transportation services and other industries with serious supply and demand imbalances. Looking forward, U.S. industrial output continues to recover, and manufacturers continue to replenish inventories, which is expected to further ease the pressure of tight supply, and there is room for downward trend in commodity price growth. However, in the process of household consumption shifting from commodities to services, it may lead to a short-term high growth rate of service industry prices, and the high growth rate of inflation may continue in stages. In the medium and long term, if the supply and demand relationship in the U.S. job market tends to be balanced, the overall salary growth pressure of the labor force may be alleviated. Referring to the Atlanta Fed Salary Growth Index's investigation of the long-term salary income levels of various industries, the total income growth of most industries is the same as before the epidemic. Not much difference. Overall, the high growth rate of inflation is likely to be temporary, and the medium and long-term inflation center will return to the desired range of the Federal Reserve, so we need to pay close attention to the disturbance of uncertain factors.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d29c6f23b0ac5773444d7695e60b1118\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure: The U.S. job market continues to recover, Wind<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddadcfa32bbc46aaa1953c47cc030f1b\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure: The consumption structure of U.S. residents shifts from commodities to consumption, Wind<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012e05432cc2afb586d75f069b13138f\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure: The inflation structure in the United States is obviously differentiated, Bloomberg<h3>03</h3><h3>Taper is about to open, with special focus on US fiscal policy</h3>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech on \"Monetary Policy in the Era of Epidemic\" at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting on August 27. He overall maintained a dovish tone consistent with the July FOMC meeting and did not convey too much incremental information that exceeded expectations. Regarding the reduction of the asset purchase plan (Taper) that the market is concerned about, Powell did not give clear time guidance, but he said that \"if the economic development is roughly in line with expectations, then it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases this year.\"That is to say, if the U.S. job market maintains a good recovery trend and the pressure of short-term high growth rate of inflation eases, then it is a high probability event to start Taper this year.Recently, many members of the Federal Reserve have conveyed to the market their views of supporting the opening of Taper, and the market has fully anticipated this. Considering that the Fed has returned to the data-dependent mode and the monetary policy adjustment is based on the realized economic data, we judge that the Fed wants to confirm the improvement of the job market after the expiration of the special epidemic subsidy, that is, waiting to observe the employment data in September and October, then The September FOMC meeting gave a clear Taper signal, the November FOMC meeting announced the Taper plan, and the December FOMC meeting opened the Taper, which is the baseline scenario for our judgment. According to a Bloomberg survey, market investors generally expect it to be consistent with the baseline scenario, basically avoiding the recurrence of the 13-year \"taper tantrum\".Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Jackson Hole conference\"The timing and speed of the upcoming reduction of asset purchases do not send a direct signal about the timing of rate hike. Regarding the rate hike issue, we have clearly expressed a different and more rigorous test,\" reiterating that there is no clear relationship between Taper and rate hike. Powell said at the FOMC press conference in July that \"under ideal conditions, interest rates will not be raised while purchasing assets.\" Referring to the gap between the last round of the Fed's end of asset purchases and the first rate hike of more than a year, the benchmark scenario for our judgment is, The current round of the Fed's rate hike will not be earlier than the fourth quarter of 2022.It is true that there is still a long time before the Federal Reserve's first rate hike. During this period, the U.S. economy is still facing various uncertainties and disturbances, such as the development of the epidemic and vaccines, and the recovery of the job market. Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current U.S. job market There are still 6 million laborers who have not returned to their jobs, of which 5 million are from the service sector that has been deeply impacted by the epidemic, and the current recovery of labor participation rate is weak. Before the U.S. economy has fully recovered from the impact of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve has the need to lower interest rates and provide lower financing costs for the financial and real sectors. Looking back at the last round of the Fed's attempt to return to the normalization of monetary policy, the market's expectation of a rapid rise in interest rates often brings greater disturbance to the financial market, especially the amplification of fluctuations in U.S. stocks, which is not conducive to the Fed's maintenance of financial market stability and confidence in the real sector.Therefore, in the future, the Federal Reserve will carefully and fully communicate the rate hike plan with the market. The current rate hike is not the main contradiction that the market is concerned about.At present, the market has sufficient expectations for the adjustment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and fiscal policy may be the focus of recent market attention, or it may bring certain constraints to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. On August 10, the U.S. Senate passed an infrastructure plan with a total scale of US $1.2 trillion, including US $550 billion in new expenditures. The overall expenditure time is about five years. The plan has a high probability of being passed in the Democratic-led House of Representatives. On August 24th, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed the $3.5 trillion budget plan framework. Two weeks ago, the Senate passed the budget plan framework, which means that the Democratic Party can bypass the Republican Party and complete the legislation of the budget resolution through the budget reconciliation process. The United States will hold mid-term elections in 2022. Before that, the Biden administration is highly likely to accelerate the implementation of its large-scale fiscal stimulus plan by virtue of the Democratic Party's advantage as the majority party in the Senate and the House of Representatives, including the implementation of infrastructure investment and people's livelihood security, and the improvement of taxes on enterprises and high-income groups.Overall, the proactive fiscal plan pursued by the Biden administration will increase the pressure on U.S. government debt or constrain the pace of the Federal Reserve's withdrawal from loose monetary policy.According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, from February 2020 to July 2021, the stock of marketable Treasury Bond in the United States increased by US $4.78 trillion. During this period, the Federal Reserve's Treasury Bond holdings increased by US $2.79 trillion, accounting for US Treasury Bond. 58.33% of the net increase, the impact of the Fed's asset purchases on the U.S. Treasury Bond market is much greater than before the epidemic. In particular, the Fed has increased its purchase of inflation-compensated bonds, which has depressed the real interest rate center of long-term U.S. bonds to a certain extent. The Federal Reserve will hold a FOMC meeting on September 21-22. Before that, the latest developments in U.S. fiscal policy, including the promotion of the $1.2 trillion and $3.5 trillion fiscal stimulus plans and the game against the U.S. government debt ceiling, may have a certain impact on the financial market.Before the dust of a new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States settles, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and any hawkish signal that exceeds market expectations will further amplify market volatility.To sum up, our basic outlook for the next stage of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is: if the U.S. job market, especially the service industry employment, recovers steadily from August to November, that is, the average monthly new non-farm employment will be around 700,000-800,000. Under such circumstances, the Federal Reserve will announce the specific content of this round of Taper at the November FOMC meeting, and the December FOMC meeting will announce the opening of Taper. Judging from the consensus expectations of the market, the Federal Reserve will reduce Treasury Bond purchases by US $10 billion and MBS purchases by US $5 billion per month. Based on the current monthly purchase scale of US $80 billion in Treasury Bond and US $40 billion in MBS, and with reference to the completion of Taper by the Federal Reserve in 14 years, it may take the Fed 8-10 months to end this round of asset purchase programs. The core uncertainty lies in the development of the epidemic and the recovery of the job market. If the epidemic in the United States deteriorates rapidly in the fourth quarter and the recovery of the job market is interrupted, the Federal Reserve will postpone the opening of Taper.In addition, the current market expectations that the Fed is about to start Taper are already sufficient, so the key influencing variable is to reduce the pace of asset purchases.If the scale of the new round of fiscal stimulus plan spending advocated by the Biden administration exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of tightening and adopt adjustments such as reducing monthly taperings and lengthening the time interval between adjustments and taperings. As for rate hike, it is still not the main contradiction that the current market is concerned about. If the U.S. economic recovery is in line with current strong expectations, the first rate hike will be no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2022. According to Bloomberg WIRP statistics, some investors believe that the first rate hike may occur in September 2022, and the cumulative number of rate hike at the FOMC meeting in January 2023 is only 0.8, that is, the Federal Reserve will still maintain the current interest rate unchanged at that time; According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>According to the statistical forecast of the Fed Watch Tool, investors believe that the probability of the Fed's rate hike at the December 2022 FOMC meeting is greater than 50% for the first time. While the Federal Reserve completes the reduction of bond purchases and measures rate hike conditions, global economic growth faces many uncertain factors, especially the development of the epidemic and policy direction, which require close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/920a982ccfb093bb70eeb88e3f709187\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Photo: WIRP, Bloomberg<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c213953afae18f328a763c64d73a07\" tg-width=\"559\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Photo: CME FedWatch Tool, CME<h3>04</h3><h3>Review of historical experience: 2013 QE3 Taper and 2015 rate hike Review</h3>1. Policy shift process, 2013-2015After the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve conducted three QE sessions. Among them, QE1 (November 2008-March 2010) and QE2 (August 2010-June 2011) both clarified the scale and rhythm of purchases when they were announced, so their withdrawal was also fully expected. However, when QE3 started, it did not specify the purchase scale and exit time. It only stated that \"asset purchases will continue until a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook is observed in the context of price stability.\" (purchases would continue until we saw a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market in a context of price stability). Until the FOMC meeting statement released on May 1, 2013, the Federal Reserve stated: \"When the labor market or inflation outlook changes, the FOMC will be ready to accelerate or slow down the pace of asset purchases to keep policies appropriately loose.\" Release the Taper signal for the first time. Then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke further stated in the congressional hearing inquiry on May 22, 2013 that \"we will consider gradually slowing down the pace of asset purchases in the next few interest rate meetings\", further releasing the Taper signal. Since then, at the FOMC meetings in June, July, and September, Bernanke stated that \"the original scale of bond purchases will continue to be maintained\", and at the same time, \"if the economic, employment, and inflation data meet the conditions, it is appropriate to slow down the pace of bond purchases this year.\" appropriate \". At the interest rate meeting in October, the committee members began to talk about the timing and rhythm of Taper, but did not give an exact and unified signal.At the December meeting, the Federal Reserve stated that the economy continues to make progress, the labor market continues to make meaningful cumulative progress, and inflation and inflation expectations are stable. Based on this, it decided to reduce bond purchases from next month. In January 2014, the Federal Reserve officially launched the Taper process, announcing a reduction of US $10 billion (including 5 billion UST and 5 billion MBS) at each meeting, until the end of QE3 was announced at the meeting in October of the same year. In the 2013-2014 Taper process, it took 7.5 months from the start of Taper talk to the official announcement of the reduction, and 10 months from the official start of Taper to the end of QE.At the FOMC meeting in September 2015, 13/17 participants expected that the rate hike process would be launched in 2015, and the Federal Reserve released a rate hike signal. In December of the same year, the Federal Reserve raised the target range of Federal Funds rate to 0.25-0.50, starting the first rate hike process after the financial crisis.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a5ca7dd72b3e5523d411341962c3e0\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"1005\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">2. The last round of Taper and rate hike's economic environmentTaper in 2013 was based on the conditions that the U.S. economy began to recover steadily after three rounds of QE, the labor market gradually repaired, and inflation stabilized. In terms of economic performance, the GDP growth rate of the United States began to rise steadily in 2012, with the annual economic growth rate of 2.3%. Bernanke also expressed optimistic expectations for the economic growth rate of 2013Q1 at the congressional hearing (Q1 GDP is expected to be 2.5% year-on-year). Since then, although the economic growth rate has declined slightly in Q1-Q2 of 2013, it has picked up again in Q3-Q4. The manufacturing PMI began to bottom out at the end of 2012, returning to above the boom-bust line, and reached the peak since QE3 in November 2013. When Taper was announced in December, the manufacturing PMI had far exceeded the pre-financial crisis level; Although the non-manufacturing PMI still lags behind that before the financial crisis, it has been stable above the boom-bust line. Supply-side industrial output and capacity utilization have stabilized, industrial output has returned to pre-financial crisis levels, and capacity utilization has recovered slightly and steadily. Demand-side retail sales continued to recover, with steady and positive year-on-year growth, and exceeded the pre-financial crisis level at the end of 2010. The inventory-to-sales ratio is at a relatively low point after the crisis, especially the retail inventory is significantly lower than the pre-crisis level. The real estate market has strengthened, and new housing starts and new housing sales have increased year-on-year since 2012.The labor market continues to recover, the number of non-agricultural employment has grown steadily and positively, and the growth rate of non-agricultural employment has increased significantly in Q4 2013. Non-agricultural employment continued to recover, reaching more than 99% since June 2013, and returned to pre-crisis levels in January 2014. But the job market repair is still incomplete. The unemployment rate continues to decline. In December 2013, the unemployment rate of 6.7% was 1.4 percentage points lower than before QE3, but it was still higher than the Fed's target of 6.5%. The job vacancy rate continues to rise, and the labor force's willingness to find employment is not strong.In terms of inflation, the inflation level has continued to run below the 2% target since QE3. Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June 2013, it has acknowledged that continued inflation below the target value may bring risks to economic performance. However, the Fed believes that long-term inflation expectations are stable and expects inflation to gradually return to the 2% level.After the end of QE3 in 2014, the U.S. GDP growth rate in Q1 2015 was 3.76%, the fastest growth rate since the financial crisis. Although the growth rate declined in subsequent Q2-Q3, it still maintained steady growth. The labor market has been further repaired, and non-agricultural employment has continued to grow steadily and positively; The unemployment rate fell below the target of 6.5% in April 2014, and dropped by another 1.5 percentage points by December 2015; The labor force participation rate remains in the range of 62%-63%. In terms of inflation, although the price index continues to be sluggish, there have been signs of recovery in Q4 2015. Considering the recovery of the job market, the Federal Reserve launched its first rate hike since the crisis in December 2015.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7be20f5808fa26e336fd3032f4735c2\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/fa456-e4e864df-59a8-45f4-b11c-87b3c58ac307.png\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4797691af42ed76eaaa4aee6a0e0368\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/111a975e5de6c9d610c920634e8661a9\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure: U.S. economic fundamentals data, data source wind3. Asset price performance when the last round of easing policy was withdrawnFor the unprecedented large-scale asset purchase plan after the 2008 financial crisis, the market failed to fully expect the timing and rhythm of its closing. Therefore, after the Federal Reserve released the Taper signal for the first time on May 1, 2013, it triggered a Taper tantrum. Long-term U.S. bond yields rose rapidly by nearly 110BP within two months, and continued to fluctuate upward until the market's Taper expectations failed at the September FOMC meeting. US Treasury yields fell accordingly. After the official announcement of Taper on December 18, 2013, the market reaction was relatively flat. The 10-year US Treasury yields rose slightly and then began to fall for one year.In 2015, the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate generally fluctuated, mainly because oil prices dragged down inflation and inflation expectations, while rate hike expected to drive real interest rates upward, and the two played games repeatedly. After the rate hike started in December 2015, while inflation expectations continued to weaken, real interest rates also turned downward due to weak U.S. economic data, both of which dragged down US Treasury yields.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98c15f470a928687cebba2d4700759e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108c0e1012418529278377668e65fba0\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure: U.S. Treasury Bond interest rate performance, data source windAfter Bernanke continued to release the Taper signal at a congressional hearing on May 22, 2013, U.S. stocks fell rapidly driven by the Taper tantrum. After the official announcement of Taper in December of the same year, U.S. stocks began to rebound. Overall, Taper did not have a great impact on U.S. stocks in 2013. Driven by economic recovery and corporate profit recovery, U.S. stocks still rose rapidly as a whole. After the rate hike process started in December 2015, U.S. stocks rose slightly and then fell sharply, mainly due to weakening fundamentals and inflation. It didn't pick up until February 2016 after inflation and fundamentals picked up.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02e172aa53a0b812ebbcd4431b581997\" tg-width=\"659\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart: Performance of the US S&P 500 Index, data source wind<h3>05</h3><h3>Outlook: Possible Deduction of the Fed's Monetary Policy in the Future</h3>Considering the uncertainty of the global epidemic, the growth momentum of the U.S. economy is more dependent on the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, the valuation of the U.S. stock market is at a historically high position, and the lack of communication when the Federal Reserve adjusted monetary policy in 2013, which triggered large fluctuations in the financial market, We tend to think that the Fed will be very prudent in reducing the scale of asset purchases in the coming period, relying more on the realized economic data, especially the job market data, rather than the market's expectations for future economic data. And the Federal Reserve will fully communicate with the market before starting to reduce the scale of asset purchases, so that the market can make full thinking and plans for this. In the future, the focus of investor games will shift from when to start Taper to reducing the scale of asset purchases and the adjustments made by the Federal Reserve during the Taper process.In particular,First, under the economic baseline scenario:If the epidemic in the United States is basically controlled and the job market continues to recover steadily, that is, when the average monthly new non-farm employment from August to November is around 700,000-800,000, the Biden administration advocates fiscal stimulus The legislation is implemented in the fourth quarter, then the Federal Reserve will announce the specific content of this round of Taper at the November FOMC meeting. The December FOMC meeting announced the opening of Taper, reducing Treasury Bond purchases by US $10 billion and MBS purchases by US $5 billion per month. In terms of asset performance, the 10-year U.S. bond yield slowly climbed to 1.5% during the year, gold fluctuated in the range of $1,700-1,900, and U.S. stocks maintained their upward trend, but the S&P 500 could hardly rise by more than 5%. The impact on China's ten-year Treasury Bond is limited, the impact on China's undervalued equity assets is bullish, and the impact on international bulk varieties such as crude oil and copper is bullish.Second, under the pessimistic economic scenario:The current round of the epidemic in the United States has accelerated and worsened, restricting the improvement of social and economic activities. The recovery of the job market is less than expected. The advancement of the fiscal stimulus plan advocated by the Biden administration has been blocked or the scale of implementation has been reduced. The Federal Reserve will postpone the opening of Taper. In terms of asset performance, the ten-year U.S. bond yield will remain in the range of 1.0-1.2% during the year, gold is expected to exceed $1,900, U.S. stocks will rise and the Nasdaq is expected to perform better. It is bullish for China's ten-year Treasury Bond and bullish for China's equity market.Third, under the optimistic economic scenario:The current round of the epidemic in the United States was quickly brought under control. By the end of the year, the average monthly new non-farm employment exceeded 1 million. The U.S. government debt ceiling and Biden's fiscal plan were successfully resolved from September to October. The Federal Reserve may advance the opening of Taper to November. In terms of asset performance, the ten-year U.S. bond yield is expected to return to 1.7% during the year, gold will fall below $1,700, and U.S. stocks will show high fluctuations. The impact on China's ten-year Treasury Bond is negative, negative on China's highly valued equity assets, and bullish on crude oil.","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cold thinking about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy: expectation guidance or discretionary decision</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCold thinking about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy: expectation guidance or discretionary decision\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n格隆汇2021-09-07 20:49\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIn the blink of an eye, it has been a week since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech on \"Monetary Policy in the Era of the Epidemic\" at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting on August 27. The overall meeting maintained a dovish tone consistent with the July FOMC meeting and did not convey too much more than expected incremental information. Regarding the reduction of the asset purchase plan (Taper) that the market is concerned about, Powell did not give clear time guidance, but he said that \"if the economic development is roughly in line with expectations, then it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases this year.\"How the exit of the ultra-loose monetary policy in the United States in the post-epidemic era will be interpreted and how it will affect the global financial market is a topic that economists and investors around the world continue to pay attention to. Should investors follow the FED's expected guidance or try to see the core factors of deep-seated camera decisions? Since the financial crisis in 2008, the FED has actually accumulated very rich experience on the road of withdrawal, which is worth looking for future guidance from history. We choose to try to objectively find the future exit path and probability after the hustle and bustle after the meeting.<h3>01</h3><h3>U.S. epidemic repeatedly drags down economic recovery</h3>Recurrent epidemics are still one of the uncertainties facing the global economy in the fourth quarter. Since the second quarter, the global epidemic has rebounded significantly, and the Delta mutant virus has continued to spread, spreading rapidly in emerging market countries around India, as well as developed market countries such as the United Kingdom and Spain. Since July, the current round of the epidemic in the United States has started. The number of newly confirmed cases in a single day has risen rapidly, and the number of new deaths in a single day has also shown a rapid upward trend. As of the end of August, the current round of the epidemic in the United States has not clearly shown a peak and a decline. signs. The epidemic has repeatedly caused a certain drag on the recovery of household consumption and service industries. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell sharply in August, exceeding expectations. The United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Although the service PMI is still in the expansion range, it has fallen sharply for three consecutive months.At present, the world is in a state of continuous spread of the epidemic and accelerated vaccination at the same time. This phenomenon is especially obvious in the United States.According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of the end of August, 61.8% of the total population in the United States had received one dose of vaccine, and 48.2% of the total population had received two doses of vaccine. Compared with European countries, the proportion of the population who had received one dose of vaccine was higher than that in European countries. At the level of 70%, the vaccination rate in the United States is relatively low. Moreover, the vaccination rate in the United States has slowed down significantly since April, but since the outbreak of the current epidemic in July, the vaccination rate has increased slightly. According to media reports, the enthusiasm of U.S. residents for vaccination has increased, and the U.S. government also plans to start providing vaccine in September. Vaccine booster shot. Except<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>In addition to the relatively low vaccination rate, the vaccination of U.S. residents shows obvious regional differentiation. The vaccination rate of Republican-led states is significantly lower than that of Democratic-led states. States with low vaccination rates are also areas with severe repeated epidemics. Judging from the experience of countries with high vaccination rates such as the United Kingdom and Israel, the United States will face the coexistence of vaccine popularization and continuous virus spread in the short term.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a0530c5b32d9c735b16275e43d23124\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure: New confirmed cases and deaths in the United States in a single day, Wind<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6d2c024c3412aff6ee9731ffc5cb01f\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure: The regional differentiation of vaccination in the United States is obvious, CDC<h3>02</h3><h3>There is still a long way to go before the U.S. economy fully recovers, and internal circulation repair is the core</h3>At present, the U.S. economy is still far from fully recovering. The recurrence of the epidemic and the withdrawal of special fiscal stimulus from the epidemic are likely to slow down the U.S. economic growth momentum in the third quarter.After the epidemic, the United States has carried out three rounds of large-scale fiscal stimulus plans, especially direct subsidies for residents, which are the key to the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy in this round. U.S. household consumption expenditure accounts for about 68% of its total GDP, which has a relatively stable month-on-month positive pull on GDP. Therefore, when the special financial subsidies for the epidemic gradually expire, the sustainability of U.S. residents' consumption expenditure is an important uncertainty about whether U.S. economic growth will be stable in the second half of the year and whether structural inflationary pressures can be alleviated.To observe the sustainability of U.S. residents' consumption expenditure, we can track the internal circulation transmission behavior of U.S. residents' employment, income, and consumption, as well as changes in U.S. residents' consumption confidence and inflation expectations. The United States created 943,000 new non-agricultural jobs in July, and the number of new jobs in May and June was revised upward to a total of 119,000, exceeding market expectations. Since the second quarter, employment in the U.S. service industry has continued to improve, and the overall non-farm payrolls have recovered to about 96% before the epidemic. However, the U.S. job market is still facing a situation of short supply. The labor force participation rate was 61.7% in July, compared with 63.3% before the epidemic. The number of job vacancies rose to 10.07 million in June, compared with only about 5 million before the epidemic, indicating that the demand for recruitment by enterprises is strong, but the labor force is not willing to find jobs.The U.S. job market is expected to continue to recover in the fourth quarter. With the increase in vaccination rates and the expiration of special unemployment subsidies due to the epidemic, labor supply is expected to be further released.As the U.S. job market continues to improve, labor wage income still supports the income of U.S. residents. If the income growth rate is not weak, household consumption expenditure will still be guaranteed in the fourth quarter.In July, the income of residents in the United States was 1.11% month-on-month, of which personal transfer payment income contributed 0.60%, employee compensation contributed 0.54%, and the contribution of salary income increased for three consecutive months. Since the beginning of this year, the month-on-month growth rate of salary income has been strong. In July, U.S. residents' expenditure was 0.27% month-on-month, of which service consumption was 1% month-on-month, durable goods consumption was-2.29% month-on-month, and non-durable goods consumption was-0.38% month-on-month, reflecting that the focus of U.S. residents' consumption is shifting from goods to services. On the one hand, residents' enthusiasm for durable goods consumption will cool down with the expiration of financial subsidies for the epidemic. On the other hand, with the popularization of vaccines and the normalization of social activities, there is still much room for recovery in service consumption such as catering and tourism.In terms of inflation, the production capacity on the supply side of the United States continues to recover, and the consumption structure of households on the demand side is changing, all of which will help alleviate the current structural pressure on inflation in the United States.The U.S. CPI in July was 0.5% month-on-month, and the core CPI was 0.3% month-on-month. Compared with the high growth point in April, it dropped sharply, and the pressure on inflation month-on-month growth decreased. After the epidemic, inflation in the United States showed obvious structural differentiation, and price growth pressure was mainly concentrated in some industries, such as automobiles, transportation services and other industries with serious supply and demand imbalances. Looking forward, U.S. industrial output continues to recover, and manufacturers continue to replenish inventories, which is expected to further ease the pressure of tight supply, and there is room for downward trend in commodity price growth. However, in the process of household consumption shifting from commodities to services, it may lead to a short-term high growth rate of service industry prices, and the high growth rate of inflation may continue in stages. In the medium and long term, if the supply and demand relationship in the U.S. job market tends to be balanced, the overall salary growth pressure of the labor force may be alleviated. Referring to the Atlanta Fed Salary Growth Index's investigation of the long-term salary income levels of various industries, the total income growth of most industries is the same as before the epidemic. Not much difference. Overall, the high growth rate of inflation is likely to be temporary, and the medium and long-term inflation center will return to the desired range of the Federal Reserve, so we need to pay close attention to the disturbance of uncertain factors.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d29c6f23b0ac5773444d7695e60b1118\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure: The U.S. job market continues to recover, Wind<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddadcfa32bbc46aaa1953c47cc030f1b\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure: The consumption structure of U.S. residents shifts from commodities to consumption, Wind<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012e05432cc2afb586d75f069b13138f\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure: The inflation structure in the United States is obviously differentiated, Bloomberg<h3>03</h3><h3>Taper is about to open, with special focus on US fiscal policy</h3>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech on \"Monetary Policy in the Era of Epidemic\" at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting on August 27. He overall maintained a dovish tone consistent with the July FOMC meeting and did not convey too much incremental information that exceeded expectations. Regarding the reduction of the asset purchase plan (Taper) that the market is concerned about, Powell did not give clear time guidance, but he said that \"if the economic development is roughly in line with expectations, then it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases this year.\"That is to say, if the U.S. job market maintains a good recovery trend and the pressure of short-term high growth rate of inflation eases, then it is a high probability event to start Taper this year.Recently, many members of the Federal Reserve have conveyed to the market their views of supporting the opening of Taper, and the market has fully anticipated this. Considering that the Fed has returned to the data-dependent mode and the monetary policy adjustment is based on the realized economic data, we judge that the Fed wants to confirm the improvement of the job market after the expiration of the special epidemic subsidy, that is, waiting to observe the employment data in September and October, then The September FOMC meeting gave a clear Taper signal, the November FOMC meeting announced the Taper plan, and the December FOMC meeting opened the Taper, which is the baseline scenario for our judgment. According to a Bloomberg survey, market investors generally expect it to be consistent with the baseline scenario, basically avoiding the recurrence of the 13-year \"taper tantrum\".Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Jackson Hole conference\"The timing and speed of the upcoming reduction of asset purchases do not send a direct signal about the timing of rate hike. Regarding the rate hike issue, we have clearly expressed a different and more rigorous test,\" reiterating that there is no clear relationship between Taper and rate hike. Powell said at the FOMC press conference in July that \"under ideal conditions, interest rates will not be raised while purchasing assets.\" Referring to the gap between the last round of the Fed's end of asset purchases and the first rate hike of more than a year, the benchmark scenario for our judgment is, The current round of the Fed's rate hike will not be earlier than the fourth quarter of 2022.It is true that there is still a long time before the Federal Reserve's first rate hike. During this period, the U.S. economy is still facing various uncertainties and disturbances, such as the development of the epidemic and vaccines, and the recovery of the job market. Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current U.S. job market There are still 6 million laborers who have not returned to their jobs, of which 5 million are from the service sector that has been deeply impacted by the epidemic, and the current recovery of labor participation rate is weak. Before the U.S. economy has fully recovered from the impact of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve has the need to lower interest rates and provide lower financing costs for the financial and real sectors. Looking back at the last round of the Fed's attempt to return to the normalization of monetary policy, the market's expectation of a rapid rise in interest rates often brings greater disturbance to the financial market, especially the amplification of fluctuations in U.S. stocks, which is not conducive to the Fed's maintenance of financial market stability and confidence in the real sector.Therefore, in the future, the Federal Reserve will carefully and fully communicate the rate hike plan with the market. The current rate hike is not the main contradiction that the market is concerned about.At present, the market has sufficient expectations for the adjustment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and fiscal policy may be the focus of recent market attention, or it may bring certain constraints to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. On August 10, the U.S. Senate passed an infrastructure plan with a total scale of US $1.2 trillion, including US $550 billion in new expenditures. The overall expenditure time is about five years. The plan has a high probability of being passed in the Democratic-led House of Representatives. On August 24th, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed the $3.5 trillion budget plan framework. Two weeks ago, the Senate passed the budget plan framework, which means that the Democratic Party can bypass the Republican Party and complete the legislation of the budget resolution through the budget reconciliation process. The United States will hold mid-term elections in 2022. Before that, the Biden administration is highly likely to accelerate the implementation of its large-scale fiscal stimulus plan by virtue of the Democratic Party's advantage as the majority party in the Senate and the House of Representatives, including the implementation of infrastructure investment and people's livelihood security, and the improvement of taxes on enterprises and high-income groups.Overall, the proactive fiscal plan pursued by the Biden administration will increase the pressure on U.S. government debt or constrain the pace of the Federal Reserve's withdrawal from loose monetary policy.According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, from February 2020 to July 2021, the stock of marketable Treasury Bond in the United States increased by US $4.78 trillion. During this period, the Federal Reserve's Treasury Bond holdings increased by US $2.79 trillion, accounting for US Treasury Bond. 58.33% of the net increase, the impact of the Fed's asset purchases on the U.S. Treasury Bond market is much greater than before the epidemic. In particular, the Fed has increased its purchase of inflation-compensated bonds, which has depressed the real interest rate center of long-term U.S. bonds to a certain extent. The Federal Reserve will hold a FOMC meeting on September 21-22. Before that, the latest developments in U.S. fiscal policy, including the promotion of the $1.2 trillion and $3.5 trillion fiscal stimulus plans and the game against the U.S. government debt ceiling, may have a certain impact on the financial market.Before the dust of a new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States settles, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and any hawkish signal that exceeds market expectations will further amplify market volatility.To sum up, our basic outlook for the next stage of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is: if the U.S. job market, especially the service industry employment, recovers steadily from August to November, that is, the average monthly new non-farm employment will be around 700,000-800,000. Under such circumstances, the Federal Reserve will announce the specific content of this round of Taper at the November FOMC meeting, and the December FOMC meeting will announce the opening of Taper. Judging from the consensus expectations of the market, the Federal Reserve will reduce Treasury Bond purchases by US $10 billion and MBS purchases by US $5 billion per month. Based on the current monthly purchase scale of US $80 billion in Treasury Bond and US $40 billion in MBS, and with reference to the completion of Taper by the Federal Reserve in 14 years, it may take the Fed 8-10 months to end this round of asset purchase programs. The core uncertainty lies in the development of the epidemic and the recovery of the job market. If the epidemic in the United States deteriorates rapidly in the fourth quarter and the recovery of the job market is interrupted, the Federal Reserve will postpone the opening of Taper.In addition, the current market expectations that the Fed is about to start Taper are already sufficient, so the key influencing variable is to reduce the pace of asset purchases.If the scale of the new round of fiscal stimulus plan spending advocated by the Biden administration exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of tightening and adopt adjustments such as reducing monthly taperings and lengthening the time interval between adjustments and taperings. As for rate hike, it is still not the main contradiction that the current market is concerned about. If the U.S. economic recovery is in line with current strong expectations, the first rate hike will be no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2022. According to Bloomberg WIRP statistics, some investors believe that the first rate hike may occur in September 2022, and the cumulative number of rate hike at the FOMC meeting in January 2023 is only 0.8, that is, the Federal Reserve will still maintain the current interest rate unchanged at that time; According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>According to the statistical forecast of the Fed Watch Tool, investors believe that the probability of the Fed's rate hike at the December 2022 FOMC meeting is greater than 50% for the first time. While the Federal Reserve completes the reduction of bond purchases and measures rate hike conditions, global economic growth faces many uncertain factors, especially the development of the epidemic and policy direction, which require close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/920a982ccfb093bb70eeb88e3f709187\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Photo: WIRP, Bloomberg<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c213953afae18f328a763c64d73a07\" tg-width=\"559\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Photo: CME FedWatch Tool, CME<h3>04</h3><h3>Review of historical experience: 2013 QE3 Taper and 2015 rate hike Review</h3>1. Policy shift process, 2013-2015After the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve conducted three QE sessions. Among them, QE1 (November 2008-March 2010) and QE2 (August 2010-June 2011) both clarified the scale and rhythm of purchases when they were announced, so their withdrawal was also fully expected. However, when QE3 started, it did not specify the purchase scale and exit time. It only stated that \"asset purchases will continue until a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook is observed in the context of price stability.\" (purchases would continue until we saw a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market in a context of price stability). Until the FOMC meeting statement released on May 1, 2013, the Federal Reserve stated: \"When the labor market or inflation outlook changes, the FOMC will be ready to accelerate or slow down the pace of asset purchases to keep policies appropriately loose.\" Release the Taper signal for the first time. Then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke further stated in the congressional hearing inquiry on May 22, 2013 that \"we will consider gradually slowing down the pace of asset purchases in the next few interest rate meetings\", further releasing the Taper signal. Since then, at the FOMC meetings in June, July, and September, Bernanke stated that \"the original scale of bond purchases will continue to be maintained\", and at the same time, \"if the economic, employment, and inflation data meet the conditions, it is appropriate to slow down the pace of bond purchases this year.\" appropriate \". At the interest rate meeting in October, the committee members began to talk about the timing and rhythm of Taper, but did not give an exact and unified signal.At the December meeting, the Federal Reserve stated that the economy continues to make progress, the labor market continues to make meaningful cumulative progress, and inflation and inflation expectations are stable. Based on this, it decided to reduce bond purchases from next month. In January 2014, the Federal Reserve officially launched the Taper process, announcing a reduction of US $10 billion (including 5 billion UST and 5 billion MBS) at each meeting, until the end of QE3 was announced at the meeting in October of the same year. In the 2013-2014 Taper process, it took 7.5 months from the start of Taper talk to the official announcement of the reduction, and 10 months from the official start of Taper to the end of QE.At the FOMC meeting in September 2015, 13/17 participants expected that the rate hike process would be launched in 2015, and the Federal Reserve released a rate hike signal. In December of the same year, the Federal Reserve raised the target range of Federal Funds rate to 0.25-0.50, starting the first rate hike process after the financial crisis.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a5ca7dd72b3e5523d411341962c3e0\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"1005\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">2. The last round of Taper and rate hike's economic environmentTaper in 2013 was based on the conditions that the U.S. economy began to recover steadily after three rounds of QE, the labor market gradually repaired, and inflation stabilized. In terms of economic performance, the GDP growth rate of the United States began to rise steadily in 2012, with the annual economic growth rate of 2.3%. Bernanke also expressed optimistic expectations for the economic growth rate of 2013Q1 at the congressional hearing (Q1 GDP is expected to be 2.5% year-on-year). Since then, although the economic growth rate has declined slightly in Q1-Q2 of 2013, it has picked up again in Q3-Q4. The manufacturing PMI began to bottom out at the end of 2012, returning to above the boom-bust line, and reached the peak since QE3 in November 2013. When Taper was announced in December, the manufacturing PMI had far exceeded the pre-financial crisis level; Although the non-manufacturing PMI still lags behind that before the financial crisis, it has been stable above the boom-bust line. Supply-side industrial output and capacity utilization have stabilized, industrial output has returned to pre-financial crisis levels, and capacity utilization has recovered slightly and steadily. Demand-side retail sales continued to recover, with steady and positive year-on-year growth, and exceeded the pre-financial crisis level at the end of 2010. The inventory-to-sales ratio is at a relatively low point after the crisis, especially the retail inventory is significantly lower than the pre-crisis level. The real estate market has strengthened, and new housing starts and new housing sales have increased year-on-year since 2012.The labor market continues to recover, the number of non-agricultural employment has grown steadily and positively, and the growth rate of non-agricultural employment has increased significantly in Q4 2013. Non-agricultural employment continued to recover, reaching more than 99% since June 2013, and returned to pre-crisis levels in January 2014. But the job market repair is still incomplete. The unemployment rate continues to decline. In December 2013, the unemployment rate of 6.7% was 1.4 percentage points lower than before QE3, but it was still higher than the Fed's target of 6.5%. The job vacancy rate continues to rise, and the labor force's willingness to find employment is not strong.In terms of inflation, the inflation level has continued to run below the 2% target since QE3. Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June 2013, it has acknowledged that continued inflation below the target value may bring risks to economic performance. However, the Fed believes that long-term inflation expectations are stable and expects inflation to gradually return to the 2% level.After the end of QE3 in 2014, the U.S. GDP growth rate in Q1 2015 was 3.76%, the fastest growth rate since the financial crisis. Although the growth rate declined in subsequent Q2-Q3, it still maintained steady growth. The labor market has been further repaired, and non-agricultural employment has continued to grow steadily and positively; The unemployment rate fell below the target of 6.5% in April 2014, and dropped by another 1.5 percentage points by December 2015; The labor force participation rate remains in the range of 62%-63%. In terms of inflation, although the price index continues to be sluggish, there have been signs of recovery in Q4 2015. Considering the recovery of the job market, the Federal Reserve launched its first rate hike since the crisis in December 2015.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7be20f5808fa26e336fd3032f4735c2\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/fa456-e4e864df-59a8-45f4-b11c-87b3c58ac307.png\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4797691af42ed76eaaa4aee6a0e0368\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/111a975e5de6c9d610c920634e8661a9\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure: U.S. economic fundamentals data, data source wind3. Asset price performance when the last round of easing policy was withdrawnFor the unprecedented large-scale asset purchase plan after the 2008 financial crisis, the market failed to fully expect the timing and rhythm of its closing. Therefore, after the Federal Reserve released the Taper signal for the first time on May 1, 2013, it triggered a Taper tantrum. Long-term U.S. bond yields rose rapidly by nearly 110BP within two months, and continued to fluctuate upward until the market's Taper expectations failed at the September FOMC meeting. US Treasury yields fell accordingly. After the official announcement of Taper on December 18, 2013, the market reaction was relatively flat. The 10-year US Treasury yields rose slightly and then began to fall for one year.In 2015, the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate generally fluctuated, mainly because oil prices dragged down inflation and inflation expectations, while rate hike expected to drive real interest rates upward, and the two played games repeatedly. After the rate hike started in December 2015, while inflation expectations continued to weaken, real interest rates also turned downward due to weak U.S. economic data, both of which dragged down US Treasury yields.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98c15f470a928687cebba2d4700759e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108c0e1012418529278377668e65fba0\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure: U.S. Treasury Bond interest rate performance, data source windAfter Bernanke continued to release the Taper signal at a congressional hearing on May 22, 2013, U.S. stocks fell rapidly driven by the Taper tantrum. After the official announcement of Taper in December of the same year, U.S. stocks began to rebound. Overall, Taper did not have a great impact on U.S. stocks in 2013. Driven by economic recovery and corporate profit recovery, U.S. stocks still rose rapidly as a whole. After the rate hike process started in December 2015, U.S. stocks rose slightly and then fell sharply, mainly due to weakening fundamentals and inflation. It didn't pick up until February 2016 after inflation and fundamentals picked up.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02e172aa53a0b812ebbcd4431b581997\" tg-width=\"659\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart: Performance of the US S&P 500 Index, data source wind<h3>05</h3><h3>Outlook: Possible Deduction of the Fed's Monetary Policy in the Future</h3>Considering the uncertainty of the global epidemic, the growth momentum of the U.S. economy is more dependent on the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, the valuation of the U.S. stock market is at a historically high position, and the lack of communication when the Federal Reserve adjusted monetary policy in 2013, which triggered large fluctuations in the financial market, We tend to think that the Fed will be very prudent in reducing the scale of asset purchases in the coming period, relying more on the realized economic data, especially the job market data, rather than the market's expectations for future economic data. And the Federal Reserve will fully communicate with the market before starting to reduce the scale of asset purchases, so that the market can make full thinking and plans for this. In the future, the focus of investor games will shift from when to start Taper to reducing the scale of asset purchases and the adjustments made by the Federal Reserve during the Taper process.In particular,First, under the economic baseline scenario:If the epidemic in the United States is basically controlled and the job market continues to recover steadily, that is, when the average monthly new non-farm employment from August to November is around 700,000-800,000, the Biden administration advocates fiscal stimulus The legislation is implemented in the fourth quarter, then the Federal Reserve will announce the specific content of this round of Taper at the November FOMC meeting. The December FOMC meeting announced the opening of Taper, reducing Treasury Bond purchases by US $10 billion and MBS purchases by US $5 billion per month. In terms of asset performance, the 10-year U.S. bond yield slowly climbed to 1.5% during the year, gold fluctuated in the range of $1,700-1,900, and U.S. stocks maintained their upward trend, but the S&P 500 could hardly rise by more than 5%. The impact on China's ten-year Treasury Bond is limited, the impact on China's undervalued equity assets is bullish, and the impact on international bulk varieties such as crude oil and copper is bullish.Second, under the pessimistic economic scenario:The current round of the epidemic in the United States has accelerated and worsened, restricting the improvement of social and economic activities. The recovery of the job market is less than expected. The advancement of the fiscal stimulus plan advocated by the Biden administration has been blocked or the scale of implementation has been reduced. The Federal Reserve will postpone the opening of Taper. In terms of asset performance, the ten-year U.S. bond yield will remain in the range of 1.0-1.2% during the year, gold is expected to exceed $1,900, U.S. stocks will rise and the Nasdaq is expected to perform better. It is bullish for China's ten-year Treasury Bond and bullish for China's equity market.Third, under the optimistic economic scenario:The current round of the epidemic in the United States was quickly brought under control. By the end of the year, the average monthly new non-farm employment exceeded 1 million. The U.S. government debt ceiling and Biden's fiscal plan were successfully resolved from September to October. The Federal Reserve may advance the opening of Taper to November. In terms of asset performance, the ten-year U.S. bond yield is expected to return to 1.7% during the year, gold will fall below $1,700, and U.S. stocks will show high fluctuations. The impact on China's ten-year Treasury Bond is negative, negative on China's highly valued equity assets, and bullish on crude oil.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/485199\">格隆汇</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4f265653009ef8be3e9588861c69d25","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/485199","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2165912804","content_text":"转眼美联储主席鲍威尔在8月27日的Jackson Hole全球央行会议上发表了“疫情时代的货币政策”讲话已过一周，会议上整体维持同7月FOMC会议一致的鸽派论调，并未传达过多超预期的增量信息。对于市场关心的缩减资产购买计划（Taper），鲍威尔并未给出明确的时间指引，但他表示“如果经济的发展大致符合预期，那么今年开始放慢资产购买的步伐可能是合适的”。后疫情时代的美国超宽松货币政策退出之路会如何演绎，会如何影响全球金融市场，是全球经济学家与投资者都持续关注的话题。投资者们是应该跟随着FED的预期引导还是去试图看清深层次相机抉择的核心因素。自08年金融危机以来，FED在退出这条路上其实已经积累了非常丰富的经验，值得我们一起从历史中寻找未来的指引。我们选择在会议之后喧嚣过后，试图客观地找寻未来的退出路径与概率。\n01\n美国疫情反复拖累经济修复\n疫情反复依然是四季度全球经济面临的不确定性之一。二季度以来，全球疫情出现显著反弹，Delta变异病毒持续扩散，先后在印度周边新兴市场国家，及英国、西班牙等发达市场国家迅速扩散。7月以来，美国疫情开启了本轮爆发，单日新增确诊病例快速攀升，单日新增死亡病例也呈现较快的回升趋势，截止8月末，美国本轮疫情尚未明确展现触顶回落的迹象。疫情反复对居民消费和服务业修复造成一定拖累，美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数大幅回落超预期，美国Markit服务业PMI虽仍在扩张区间，但已连续三个月大幅下行。\n当前全球处于疫情持续扩散和疫苗加速接种同时进行的状态，这一现象在美国尤为明显。据美国疾控中心数据，截止8月末，全美接种一针疫苗人口占总人口的61.8%，接种两针疫苗人口占总人口的48.2%，相较于欧洲国家接种一针疫苗人口占比高于70%的水平而言，美国疫苗接种率相对较低。且美国疫苗接种速率自4月以来显著放缓，但7月本轮疫情爆发以来，疫苗接种速率小幅抬升，据媒体报道美国居民接种疫苗的积极性有所提高，美国政府也计划于9月开始提供疫苗加强针。除全民接种率相对较低外，美国居民疫苗接种呈现明显的区域分化，共和党领导州接种率显著低于民主党领导州，接种率较低的州也是本轮疫情反复较为严重的地区。参照高接种率国家如英国、以色列的经验来看，短期内美国将面对疫苗普及和病毒持续传播共存的局面。\n\n图：美国单日新增确诊和死亡病例，Wind\n\n图：美国疫苗接种区域分化明显，CDC\n02\n美国经济完全复苏尚有距离，内循环修复是核心\n当前美国经济距完全复苏尚有距离，疫情的再度反复和疫情特殊财政刺激的退出，大概率使得美国三季度经济增长动能边际放缓。疫后美国进行了三轮大规模财政刺激计划，特别是针对居民端发放的直接补贴，是本轮美国经济快速复苏的关键。美国居民消费支出约占其国内生产总值总额的68%，对国内生产总值有较为稳定的环比正向拉动。因此，当疫情特殊财政补贴逐渐到期后，美国居民消费支出的可持续性，是下半年美国经济增长稳定与否、结构性通胀压力能否缓解的重要不确定性。\n观察美国居民消费支出的可持续性，可以通过跟踪美国居民就业、收入、消费的内循环传导行为，还有美国居民消费信心和对通胀预期的变化。美国7月非农新增就业94.3万人，5月和6月新增就业均上修共计11.9万人，超市场预期。二季度以来，美国服务业就业持续改善，整体非农就业人数已修复至疫情前约96%分位。但美国就业市场依然面临供不应求的局面，7月劳动参与率61.7%，而疫情前为63.3%，6月职位空缺数上升至1007万人，而疫情前仅为500万人左右，说明企业招工需求旺盛但劳动力就业意愿不强。四季度美国就业市场有望持续修复，随着疫苗接种率的提升和疫情特殊失业补贴的到期，劳动力供给有望进一步释放。\n随着美国就业市场的持续改善，劳动力薪资收入对美国居民收入仍有支撑，收入增速不弱则四季度居民消费支出仍有保障。美国7月居民收入环比1.11%，其中个人转移支付收入贡献0.60%，雇员报酬贡献0.54%，薪资收入贡献连续三个月增长，今年以来薪资收入环比增速表现较强。美国7月居民支出环比0.27%，其中服务消费环比1%，耐用品消费环比-2.29%，非耐用品消费环比-0.38%，体现出美国居民消费重心正在由商品转向服务。一方面，居民耐用品消费的热情将随着疫情财政补贴的到期而降温，另一方面，随着疫苗普及和社会活动正常化，餐饮、旅游等服务消费仍有较大的修复空间。\n通胀方面，美国供给端产能持续修复，需求端居民消费结构正在发生变化，均有助于缓解当前美国通胀的结构性压力。美国7月CPI环比0.5%，核心CPI环比0.3%，相较于4月增速高点大幅回落，通胀环比增长压力减少。疫后美国通胀呈现较为明显的结构性分化，价格增长压力主要集中在部分行业，如汽车、运输服务等供需失衡较为严重的行业。往后看，美国工业产出持续修复，制造商延续补库存行为，有望进一步缓解供应紧张压力，商品价格增速有下行空间。但在居民消费由商品转向服务的过程中，可能会带来服务业价格短期高增速的情况，通胀高增速或阶段性持续。中长期来看，若美国就业市场供需关系趋向平衡，劳动力整体薪资增长压力或将有所缓解，参考亚特兰大联储薪资增长指数对各行业长期薪资收入水平的考察，多数行业总收入增长情况同疫情前差异不大。整体来看，通胀高增速大概率是临时的，中长期通胀中枢将回归美联储的合意区间，需密切关注不确定因素的扰动。\n\n图：美国就业市场持续修复，Wind\n\n图：美国居民消费结构由商品转向消费，Wind\n\n图：美国通胀结构分化明显，Bloomberg\n03\nTaper即将开启，特别关注美国财政政策\n美联储主席鲍威尔在8月27日的Jackson Hole全球央行会议上发表了“疫情时代的货币政策”讲话，整体维持同7月FOMC会议一致的鸽派论调，并未传达过多超预期的增量信息。对于市场关心的缩减资产购买计划（Taper），鲍威尔并未给出明确的时间指引，但他表示“如果经济的发展大致符合预期，那么今年开始放慢资产购买的步伐可能是合适的”，即如果美国就业市场维持良好的修复态势，通胀短期高增速压力有所缓解，那么今年内开启Taper已是大概率事件。近期美联储多位委员均向市场传达了支持开启Taper的观点，市场对此预期已较为充分。考虑到美联储重回数据依赖模式，货币政策调整基于已实现的经济数据，我们判断美联储希望确认就业市场在疫情特殊补助到期后的改善情况，即等待观察9月和10月的就业数据，那么9月FOMC会议给出明确的Taper信号，11月FOMC会议宣布Taper计划，12月FOMC会议开启Taper是我们判断的基准情景。据彭博调查显示，市场投资者普遍预期同基准情景一致，基本避免13年“缩减恐慌”的再度上演。\n美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议上表示“即将进行的缩减资产购买的时机和速度，并不传递有关加息时机的直接信号，关于加息问题，我们已经明确表达了一个不同的、且更为严格的测试”，重申Taper和加息之间没有明确的关系。鲍威尔在7月FOMC发布会上曾表示“理想状态下，不会仍然在购买资产的同时提高利率”，参考上一轮美联储结束资产购买和首次加息相隔一年有余，我们判断的基准情景是，美联储本轮加息不会早于2022年四季度。诚然，距离美联储首次加息还有较长的时间，美国经济在此期间仍面临多方面的不确定性扰动，如疫情和疫苗的发展、就业市场的修复等，鲍威尔多次强调目前美国就业市场仍有600万劳动力未能重返岗位，其中500万来自深受疫情冲击的服务部门，且当前劳动参与率的修复表现疲弱。在美国经济尚未从疫情冲击中完全修复前，美联储有压低利率水平的需求，为金融和实体部门提供较低的融资成本。回顾美联储上一轮尝试回归货币政策正常化的过程，市场对利率快速抬升的预期往往对金融市场带来较大的扰动，特别是美股波动放大，不利于美联储维护金融市场稳定和实体部门信心。因此，未来美联储将谨慎且充分地同市场沟通加息计划，当前加息不是市场关注的主要矛盾。\n目前市场对美联储货币政策调整的预期已较为充分，而财政政策或是近期市场关注的焦点，或对美联储货币政策带来一定的约束。8月10日，美国参议院通过了总规模1.2万亿美元的基建计划，其中新增支出5500亿美元，整体开支时间约为5年，该计划在民主党领导的众议院通过概率极大。8月24日，美国众议院以微弱优势通过了3.5万亿美元的预算计划框架，两周前参议院已通过该预算计划框架，意味着民主党可以绕过共和党，通过预算和解流程完成该预算决议的立法。美国将于2022年举行中期选举，在此之前，拜登政府凭借民主党为参众两院多数党的优势加速推行其大规模财政刺激计划的概率极大，包括落实基建投资和民生保障，及提高企业和高收入群体税收。整体而言，拜登政府推行的积极财政计划将加大美国政府债务压力，或约束美联储退出宽松货币政策的节奏。据美国财政部数据，2020年2月至2021年7月，美国适销国债存量净增加4.78万亿美元，在此期间，美联储国债持有额净增加2.79万亿美元，占美国国债净增量的58.33%，美联储资产购买行为对美国国债市场的影响要远大于疫情前，特别是美联储加大了对通胀补偿债券的购买力度，一定程度上压低了长端美债实际利率中枢。美联储将于9月21-22日举行FOMC会议，在此之前美国财政政策的最新进展，包括对1.2万亿和3.5万亿美元财政刺激计划的推进、对美国政府债务上限的博弈，都可能对金融市场造成一定冲击。在美国新一轮财政刺激尘埃落定前，美联储保持谨慎观望态度的概率较大，任何超市场预期的鹰派信号都将进一步放大市场波动。\n综前所述，我们对美联储下一阶段货币政策的基本展望是：若美国就业市场，特别是服务业就业在8-11月稳步复苏，即月均新增非农就业在70-80万人左右的情况下，美联储将在11月FOMC会议宣布本轮Taper的具体内容，12月FOMC会议宣布开启Taper。参照市场一致预期判断，美联储将每月减少国债购买100亿美元，减少MBS购买50亿美元，按照当前每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元MBS的购买规模推算，同时参考14年美联储完成Taper的节奏，美联储或将用时8-10个月结束本轮资产购买计划。核心不确定性在于疫情发展和就业市场修复，若四季度美国疫情出现急速恶化、就业市场复苏中断，美联储将推迟Taper开启的时间。此外，当前市场对美联储即将开始Taper的预期已然充分，因此关键的影响变量在于减少资产购买的节奏。若拜登政府主张的新一轮财政刺激计划支出规模超预期，美联储或放缓紧缩节奏，采取如减少每月缩减规模、拉长调整缩减规模的时间间隔等调整。至于加息，仍不是当前市场关注的主要矛盾。若美国经济复苏符合当前强势预期，首次加息将不早于2022年四季度。据彭博WIRP统计预测，有投资者认为首次加息可能发生在2022年9月，在2023年1月FOMC会议上累计加息次数仅为0.8，即届时美联储仍将维持当前利率不变；据芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具统计预测，投资者认为美联储在2022年12月FOMC会议上加息的概率首次大于50%。在美联储完成缩减购债并衡量加息条件期间，全球经济增长所面临的不确定性因素较多，特别是疫情发展和政策走向，都需密切关注。\n\n图：WIRP，Bloomberg\n\n图：CME FedWatch Tool，CME\n04\n历史经验的回顾：2013年QE3 Taper与2015年加息回顾\n1.2013-2015年政策转向过程\n2008年金融危机后，美联储先后共进行了三次QE。其中QE1（2008年11月-2010年3月）和QE2（2010年8月-2011年6月）宣布时均明确了购买规模和节奏，因此其退出也得到了充分预期。但QE3开启时并未明确购买规模和退出时间，只声明了“资产购买将一直持续，直到在价格稳定的背景下观察到劳动力市场前景有实质性改善”（purchases would continue until we saw a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market in a context of price stability）。直到2013年5月1日释出的FOMC会议声明中，美联储表示：“当劳动力市场或通胀前景发生变化，FOMC将做好加快或放缓资产购买步伐的准备，以保持政策适当宽松”，首次释放出Taper信号。时任美联储主席伯南克在2013年5月22日国会听证会问询中进一步表示“将考虑在未来几次议息会议中开始逐步放缓资产购买速度”，进一步释放Taper信号。此后，在6月、7月、9月FOMC会议上，伯南克表示“将继续维持原有购债规模”，同时“若经济、就业和通胀数据满足条件，今年内放缓购债步伐是合适的”。在10月议息会议上，委员们开始谈论Taper时间和节奏，但并未给出确切统一的信号。\n12月会议上，美联储表示：经济持续取得进展，劳动力市场持续取得重要进展（meaningful cumulative progress），通胀和通胀预期稳定，基于此，决定从下个月开始缩减购债。2014年1月，美联储正式开启Taper进程，每次会议上宣布缩减100亿美元（其中50亿UST,50亿MBS），直到同年10月会议上宣布结束QE3。2013-2014年Taper进程中，从开始Taper talk到正式宣布减码用时7.5个月，从正式开启Taper到结束QE用时10个月。\n2015年9月FOMC会议上，13/17与会者预期2015年内将启动加息进程，美联储释放出加息信号。同年12月，美联储上调联邦基金利率目标区间至0.25-0.50，开启金融危机后的首次加息进程。\n\n2.上一轮Taper与加息的经济环境\n2013年Taper是基于三轮QE后美国经济开始稳定复苏、劳动力市场逐渐修复、通胀稳定的条件进行的。经济表现方面，2012年美国GDP增速开始稳定抬升，全年经济增速2.3%，伯南克在国会听证会上也表示了对2013Q1经济增速的乐观预期（预计Q1GDP同比2.5%）。此后虽然2013年Q1-Q2经济增速稍有回落，但Q3-Q4再次回升。制造业PMI于2012年末开始见底回升，重回荣枯线以上，并于2013年11月达到QE3以来的峰值，12月宣布Taper时制造业PMI已远超金融危机前水平；非制造业PMI虽然较金融危机前仍有差距，但一直表现稳定在荣枯线以上。供给端工业产出和产能利用率趋于稳定，工业产出已恢复至金融危机前水平，产能利用率小幅稳步修复。需求端零售销售持续修复，同比稳定正增长，并于2010年末超过金融危机前水平。库存销售比处于危机后相对低点，尤其是零售库存显著低于危机前水平。房地产市场走强，新屋开工和新房销售自2012年开始同比高增。\n劳动力市场持续修复，非农就业人数稳步正增长，非农就业增速于2013年Q4显著提升。非农就业持续修复，2013年6月起修复程度达99%以上，并于2014年1月恢复至危机前水平。但就业市场修复仍不完全。失业率水平持续下降，2013年12月失业率6.7%较QE3之前下降1.4个百分点，但仍高于美联储目标值6.5%。职位空缺率持续上升，劳动力就业意愿不强。\n通胀方面，QE3以来通胀水平持续在2%目标以下运行。美联储自2013年6月议息会议上承认，通胀持续低于目标值可能会给经济表现带来风险。但美联储认为长期通胀预期稳定，并预计通胀率将逐步回到2%水平。\n2014年结束QE3后，2015年Q1美国GDP增速3.76%，为金融危机以来最快增速，尽管后续Q2-Q3增速有所回落，但仍保持稳定增长。劳动力市场进一步修复，非农就业人数持续稳定正增长；失业率于2014年4月降至6.5%目标以下，至2015年12月再降1.5个百分点；劳动力参与率维持在62%-63%区间波动。通胀方面，尽管价格指数持续低迷，但2015年Q4已有回升迹象，考虑到就业市场修复情况，美联储于2015年12月开启危机后首次加息。\n\n\n\n\n图：美国经济基本面数据，数据来源wind\n3.上一轮宽松政策退出时资产价格表现\n对于08年金融危机后史无前例的大规模资产购买计划，市场对其收尾的时点和节奏未能形成充分预期。因此2013年5月1日美联储首次释放Taper信号后，引发了缩减恐慌，长端美债收益率在两个月内快速上行近110BP，并继续震荡上行直至9月FOMC会议上市场Taper预期落空后，美债利率随之下降。而2013年12月18日正式宣布Taper后，市场反应反而较为平淡，10年期美债利率小幅上扬后开始了长达1年的回落。\n2015年10年期国债利率总体震荡，主系油价拖累通胀和通胀预期，同时加息预期拉动实际利率上行，两者反复博弈。2015年12月开启加息后，通胀预期继续走弱的同时，实际利率也由于美国经济数据疲弱转而下行，两者共同拖累美债利率下行。\n\n\n图：美国国债利率表现，数据来源wind\n2013年5月22日伯南克在国会听证会上继续释放Taper信号后，美股在缩减恐慌驱动下快速下跌。同年12月正式宣布Taper后，美股开始反弹。总体2013年Taper并未对美股造成很大影响，在经济复苏和企业盈利修复驱动下，美股总体仍快速上涨。2015年12月开启加息进程后，美股小幅上扬后转而大幅下跌，主系基本面和通胀走弱。直到2016年2月通胀和基本面有所回暖后才有所回升。\n\n图：美国标普500指数表现，数据来源wind\n05\n展望：未来美联储货币政策的可能性推演\n考虑到全球疫情的不确定性、美国经济增长动能更加依赖货币与财政政策配合、美国股市估值处于历史较高位置，以及2013年美联储调整货币政策时沟通较少而引发了金融市场的大幅波动，我们倾向于认为未来一段时间美联储缩减资产购买规模将是非常审慎的，更多依赖于已经实现的经济数据，特别是就业市场的数据，而不是市场对未来经济数据的预期。并且美联储将在开启缩减资产购买规模之前将与市场进行充分的沟通，让市场对此做出充分的思考与预案。未来一段时间，投资者博弈的焦点将从何时开启Taper转为缩减资产购买的规模以及美联储Taper过程中所做的调整。\n具体而言，一是经济基准情景下：若美国疫情得到基本控制，就业市场持续稳步复苏，即8-11月月均新增非农就业在70-80万人左右的情况下，拜登政府主张的1.2万亿和3.5万亿美元财政刺激计划在四季度落实立法，那么美联储将在11月FOMC会议宣布本轮Taper的具体内容，12月FOMC会议宣布开启Taper，每月减少国债购买100亿美元，减少MBS购买50亿美元，用时8-10个月结束本轮资产购买计划，在2022年12月之前引导加息预期的概率较低。资产表现方面，年内十年期美债收益率缓慢攀升至1.5%，黄金在1700-1900美元区间震荡，美股维持涨势，但标普500涨幅难超5%。对中国十年期国债影响有限，对中国低估值权益资产偏利多，对原油、铜等国际大宗品种的影响偏利多。\n二是经济悲观情景下：美国本轮疫情加速恶化，制约社会经济活动改善，就业市场恢复不及预期，拜登政府主张的财政刺激计划推进受阻或落地规模缩小，美联储将推迟Taper开启的时间。资产表现方面，年内十年期美债收益率维持1.0-1.2%区间运行，黄金有望突破1900美元，美股上涨且纳斯达克表现有望更优。对中国十年期国债偏利多，对中国权益市场偏利多。\n三是经济乐观情景下：美国本轮疫情迅速得到控制，至年底月均新增非农就业超100万人，美国政府债务上限、拜登财政计划在9-10月顺利推进解决，美联储或将Taper开启提前至11月。资产表现方面，年内十年期美债收益率有望重回1.7%，黄金跌破1700美元，美股将呈现高位波动。对中国十年期国债影响偏利空，对中国高估值权益资产偏利空，对原油偏利多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2359,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5782207,"commentId":"5782207","gmtCreate":1631023943913,"gmtModify":1663233517241,"authorId":3568697814695599,"author":{"id":3568697814695599,"idStr":"3568697814695599","authorId":3568697814695599,"name":"HCBICE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4851c4a27e84de19dd126ece72f2e29","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880328398,"objectIdStr":"880328398","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}