As market continues to climb,

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ckleesg
2021-09-08

As market continues to climb, it will get exhausted at some point. It is not a question of whether it will fall but when. My take is in the next 3 - 6 months.

Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.

'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.

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河东荷西
·2021-09-10
现在的情况是市场上的钱太多了，而股是刚好形成了一个蓄水池，所以半年内是不会有大幅的下跌
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李苗苗
·2021-09-09
市场有涨有跌是正常表现，但是何时涨跌就很考验个人的判断了。时机不对，伤害还是很大的
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东营天地人和
·2021-09-10
都已经涨了10年了，我相信下一个十年依然让人心情澎湃，向上趋势，依然不变
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一池咸鱼
·2021-09-08
感谢恁的分享，能不能给仔细说下逻辑？不看好未来的增长前景还是技术面啊
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时空下流浪
·2021-09-08
恁不看接下来的市场吗？是不是可以择机做空市场啊？
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My take is in the next 3 - 6 months.&nbsp;</p></body></html>","text":"As market continues to climb, it will get exhausted at some point. It is not a question of whether it will fall but when. My take is in the next 3 - 6 months.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/880443317","repostId":2165368421,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165368421","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631060195,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2165368421?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165368421","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management","content":"<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p>\n<p>\"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p>\n<p>\"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p>\n<p>She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p>\n<p>Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p>\n<p>\"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p>\n<p>Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p>\n<p>The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&amp;P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p>\n<p>\"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p>\n<p>Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p>\n<p>For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p>\n<p>\"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. 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Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-08 08:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management\nInvestors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2165368421","content_text":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management\nInvestors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.\nMorgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.\n\"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.\n\"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"\nShe suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"\nMegatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.\nA Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.\n\"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"\nAlthough Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.\nThe tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.\nMeanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.\n\"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"\nInvestors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.\nFor example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.\n\"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":56,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":125,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5812893,"commentId":"5812893","gmtCreate":1631236212874,"gmtModify":1663233644245,"authorId":9000000000000148,"author":{"id":9000000000000148,"idStr":"9000000000000148","authorId":9000000000000148,"name":"河东荷西","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448be2640dd5797560f74ee9b8c8fd00","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880443317,"objectIdStr":"880443317","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"现在的情况是市场上的钱太多了，而股是刚好形成了一个蓄水池，所以半年内是不会有大幅的下跌","text":"现在的情况是市场上的钱太多了，而股是刚好形成了一个蓄水池，所以半年内是不会有大幅的下跌","html":"现在的情况是市场上的钱太多了，而股是刚好形成了一个蓄水池，所以半年内是不会有大幅的下跌","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":5800520,"commentId":"5800520","gmtCreate":1631151593915,"gmtModify":1663233591650,"authorId":3479274710327383,"author":{"id":3479274710327383,"idStr":"3479274710327383","authorId":3479274710327383,"name":"李苗苗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture41","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880443317,"objectIdStr":"880443317","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"市场有涨有跌是正常表现，但是何时涨跌就很考验个人的判断了。时机不对，伤害还是很大的","text":"市场有涨有跌是正常表现，但是何时涨跌就很考验个人的判断了。时机不对，伤害还是很大的","html":"市场有涨有跌是正常表现，但是何时涨跌就很考验个人的判断了。时机不对，伤害还是很大的","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":5812977,"commentId":"5812977","gmtCreate":1631236495649,"gmtModify":1663233645667,"authorId":3479274789332061,"author":{"id":3479274789332061,"idStr":"3479274789332061","authorId":3479274789332061,"name":"东营天地人和","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture133","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880443317,"objectIdStr":"880443317","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"都已经涨了10年了，我相信下一个十年依然让人心情澎湃，向上趋势，依然不变","text":"都已经涨了10年了，我相信下一个十年依然让人心情澎湃，向上趋势，依然不变","html":"都已经涨了10年了，我相信下一个十年依然让人心情澎湃，向上趋势，依然不变","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":5791205,"commentId":"5791205","gmtCreate":1631087317709,"gmtModify":1663233551233,"authorId":3479274736231003,"author":{"id":3479274736231003,"idStr":"3479274736231003","authorId":3479274736231003,"name":"一池咸鱼","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture70","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880443317,"objectIdStr":"880443317","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"感谢恁的分享，能不能给仔细说下逻辑？不看好未来的增长前景还是技术面啊","text":"感谢恁的分享，能不能给仔细说下逻辑？不看好未来的增长前景还是技术面啊","html":"感谢恁的分享，能不能给仔细说下逻辑？不看好未来的增长前景还是技术面啊","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":5791196,"commentId":"5791196","gmtCreate":1631087261012,"gmtModify":1663233551640,"authorId":3479274816899540,"author":{"id":3479274816899540,"idStr":"3479274816899540","authorId":3479274816899540,"name":"时空下流浪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture188","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880443317,"objectIdStr":"880443317","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"恁不看接下来的市场吗？是不是可以择机做空市场啊？","text":"恁不看接下来的市场吗？是不是可以择机做空市场啊？","html":"恁不看接下来的市场吗？是不是可以择机做空市场啊？","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}