To The Moon

$Apple(AAPL.US)$ faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday's ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.

In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple's own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.

Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple's overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.

SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple's total revenues.

Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company's profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday's ruling.

Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees "at most" a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.

"After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal," he said. "Bottom line, it's at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years."

Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic's assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple's per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron's he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a "rounding error." While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.

The ruling is more positive for companies like $Spotify Technology(SPOT.US)$ and $Match group(MTCH.US)$ than it is a negative for Apple, he said.