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2021-08-11

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Disney earnings preview: The stock price is sluggish, can the Q3 quarter bring surprises?

8月11日消息，疫情阴霾再起，与此前不同，市场对流媒体公司的态度开始冷淡。今年3月份以来，奈飞维持区间震荡走势，迪士尼创新高后不久，股价掉头向下，至今仍旧低迷，而标普500在此期间缓慢上行。Delta

Disney earnings preview: The stock price is sluggish, can the Q3 quarter bring surprises?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":892274456,"tweetId":"892274456","gmtCreate":1628669374475,"gmtModify":1676529815561,"author":{"id":3581979721991802,"idStr":"3581979721991802","authorId":3581979721991802,"authorIdStr":"3581979721991802","name":"abp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0c0424f61209387c56148e921c507f1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":16,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like and comment&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like and comment&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Like and comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/892274456","repostId":1153261773,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153261773","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628652766,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153261773?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-11 11:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Disney earnings preview: The stock price is sluggish, can the Q3 quarter bring surprises?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153261773","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月11日消息，疫情阴霾再起，与此前不同，市场对流媒体公司的态度开始冷淡。今年3月份以来，奈飞维持区间震荡走势，迪士尼创新高后不久，股价掉头向下，至今仍旧低迷，而标普500在此期间缓慢上行。Delta","content":"According to news on August 11, the haze of the epidemic has resurfaced. Unlike before, the market's attitude towards streaming media companies has begun to be cold. Since March this year, Netflix has maintained a range-bound trend. Shortly after Disney hit a new high, the stock price turned downward and is still sluggish, while the S&P 500 has slowly risen during this period. Under the disturbance of the Delta mutant virus, when the epidemic is disturbed, what is the logic of the market \"abandoning\" Disney and \"wait and see\" Netflix? Disney will release its Q3 financial report for fiscal year 2021 on the morning of August 13 (after the U.S. stock market closes on August 12). What are the highlights?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f320bc768ecc73dc874b0f53f3f7b36\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">There are two reasons why the market abandoned Disney. First, in order to control the spread of the delta mutant virus, the United States closed theaters again, and Disney also postponed the movie release schedule accordingly; Second, in the financial report released by Disney in the previous quarter, Disney + 's subscriber growth was weaker than market expectations. Two reasons have caused investors' optimism about Disney to suddenly cool down,What are the key points to pay attention to in the 2021 Q3 fiscal quarter?First, focus on revenue and subscriber growth.In the Q2 fiscal quarter, Disney's revenue and subscribers fell short of expectations, causing its stock price to plummet by more than 4% after the financial report was released. Therefore, Q3 investors need to pay attention to whether these indicators have improved.Let's look at revenue first.Looking back at Disney's business in the past two years, we can see that since the second quarter of last year (the Q3 fiscal quarter of 2020), Disney's revenue has been less than the same period last year, mainly due to the closure of theme parks during the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a sharp drop in related business revenue. The financial report shows that in the second, third and fourth quarters of last year, the revenue of theme parks and derivatives business was US $1.065 billion, US $2.733 billion and US $3.588 billion respectively, compared with US $6.575 billion, US $6.657 billion and US $6.657 billion in the same period in 2019. 7.58 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8f5f0cebf3dba148636b7c979cae0c\" tg-width=\"1297\" tg-height=\"459\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Although the business of theme parks and derivatives has gradually recovered in the past three quarters, with the spread of the Delta mutant virus, the revenue of theme parks and derivatives business has declined in the Q2 fiscal quarter of 2021. Investors need to pay attention to the spread of the Delta mutant virus. The inflection point of transmission, and the progress of vaccination.Let's look at the growth of subscribers.Although in the Q2 fiscal quarter, both revenue and subscribers were in miss the market expectation,However, the market is more inclined to believe that the latter is the main factor that led to the decline in Disney's stock price after the financial report.The reason why subscribers are so important is that after nearly two years of development, the streaming business is becoming Disney's core business. In the last quarter (Q2 fiscal quarter of 2021), the revenue of the media and entertainment department (i.e. streaming media) business accounted for 80%, and the revenue of theme parks and related derivatives accounted for 20%.Currently, Disney has three platforms with different positioning: ESPN +, Hulu and the well-known Disney +. 13.8 million ESPN + subscribers for the fiscal Q2 quarter ended April 3, 2021 (up 7% sequentially); 41.6 million Hulu users (up 14.5% sequentially); Disney + subscribers stood at 103.6 million (up 9.17% sequentially).ESPN + and Hulu:Some analysts predict that by 2024, the number of subscribers of ESPN + and Hulu services may reach 100 million.Disney + 's subscriber growth has slowed, and this trend is likely to continue in the fiscal Q3 quarter.Based on internal data it reviewed in early July, The Information reported that,Disney +U.S. subscriber growth plummets，Disney + total subscribers are expected to be slightly over 110 million at the end of fiscal Q3, with growth mainly coming from India and Latin America.Currently, India's Disney Hotstar channel accounts for about one-third of Disney's total subscribers.It was also the main source of user growth in the last quarter. Disney's average revenue per user (ARPU) fell to $3.99 from $5.63 due to pricing differences compared to the U.S. However, the latest news shows that at the end of July Disney updated its streaming plan in India, introducing a mobile-only tier while increasing the overall price. Subsequent investors can pay attention to the impact on overall revenue.It should be noted that Disney's current streaming media business is still losing money, and the company does not expect to achieve profitability until fiscal year 2024.Unlike Netflix, Disney's ambition to go all-in on streaming goes beyond increases in subscription fees. After setting up the streaming media platform, the mass communication channels are broadened, and a platform for direct contact with individual consumers is established. In Disney's unique round revenue model, the subscription fee revenue of streaming media platform is only the first link revenue based on the content of film and television works in the round revenue model. Media network, theme park and consumer goods business account for the top two businesses of Disney's revenue. The interaction between offline real-life experience and online information helps Disney to penetrate the brand into all aspects of fans' life, such as food, clothing, housing and transportation, forming a closed-loop ecological chain of \"IP + media + realization channels\" with IP as the core.Bloomberg expectationsBloomberg unanimously expects that in the Q3 fiscal quarter of 2021, Disney's revenue will be US $16.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.6%; Adjusted net profit was US $861 million, a year-on-year increase of 138.6%; Adjusted earnings per share were $0.554, a year-over-year increase of 592.5%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39bd6d0567a65dfd3a4bfbddcacfa1e1\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney earnings preview: The stock price is sluggish, can the Q3 quarter bring surprises?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney earnings preview: The stock price is sluggish, can the Q3 quarter bring surprises?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n老虎资讯综合 \n2021-08-11 11:32\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAccording to news on August 11, the haze of the epidemic has resurfaced. Unlike before, the market's attitude towards streaming media companies has begun to be cold. Since March this year, Netflix has maintained a range-bound trend. Shortly after Disney hit a new high, the stock price turned downward and is still sluggish, while the S&P 500 has slowly risen during this period. Under the disturbance of the Delta mutant virus, when the epidemic is disturbed, what is the logic of the market \"abandoning\" Disney and \"wait and see\" Netflix? Disney will release its Q3 financial report for fiscal year 2021 on the morning of August 13 (after the U.S. stock market closes on August 12). What are the highlights?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f320bc768ecc73dc874b0f53f3f7b36\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">There are two reasons why the market abandoned Disney. First, in order to control the spread of the delta mutant virus, the United States closed theaters again, and Disney also postponed the movie release schedule accordingly; Second, in the financial report released by Disney in the previous quarter, Disney + 's subscriber growth was weaker than market expectations. Two reasons have caused investors' optimism about Disney to suddenly cool down,What are the key points to pay attention to in the 2021 Q3 fiscal quarter?First, focus on revenue and subscriber growth.In the Q2 fiscal quarter, Disney's revenue and subscribers fell short of expectations, causing its stock price to plummet by more than 4% after the financial report was released. Therefore, Q3 investors need to pay attention to whether these indicators have improved.Let's look at revenue first.Looking back at Disney's business in the past two years, we can see that since the second quarter of last year (the Q3 fiscal quarter of 2020), Disney's revenue has been less than the same period last year, mainly due to the closure of theme parks during the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a sharp drop in related business revenue. The financial report shows that in the second, third and fourth quarters of last year, the revenue of theme parks and derivatives business was US $1.065 billion, US $2.733 billion and US $3.588 billion respectively, compared with US $6.575 billion, US $6.657 billion and US $6.657 billion in the same period in 2019. 7.58 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8f5f0cebf3dba148636b7c979cae0c\" tg-width=\"1297\" tg-height=\"459\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Although the business of theme parks and derivatives has gradually recovered in the past three quarters, with the spread of the Delta mutant virus, the revenue of theme parks and derivatives business has declined in the Q2 fiscal quarter of 2021. Investors need to pay attention to the spread of the Delta mutant virus. The inflection point of transmission, and the progress of vaccination.Let's look at the growth of subscribers.Although in the Q2 fiscal quarter, both revenue and subscribers were in miss the market expectation,However, the market is more inclined to believe that the latter is the main factor that led to the decline in Disney's stock price after the financial report.The reason why subscribers are so important is that after nearly two years of development, the streaming business is becoming Disney's core business. In the last quarter (Q2 fiscal quarter of 2021), the revenue of the media and entertainment department (i.e. streaming media) business accounted for 80%, and the revenue of theme parks and related derivatives accounted for 20%.Currently, Disney has three platforms with different positioning: ESPN +, Hulu and the well-known Disney +. 13.8 million ESPN + subscribers for the fiscal Q2 quarter ended April 3, 2021 (up 7% sequentially); 41.6 million Hulu users (up 14.5% sequentially); Disney + subscribers stood at 103.6 million (up 9.17% sequentially).ESPN + and Hulu:Some analysts predict that by 2024, the number of subscribers of ESPN + and Hulu services may reach 100 million.Disney + 's subscriber growth has slowed, and this trend is likely to continue in the fiscal Q3 quarter.Based on internal data it reviewed in early July, The Information reported that,Disney +U.S. subscriber growth plummets，Disney + total subscribers are expected to be slightly over 110 million at the end of fiscal Q3, with growth mainly coming from India and Latin America.Currently, India's Disney Hotstar channel accounts for about one-third of Disney's total subscribers.It was also the main source of user growth in the last quarter. Disney's average revenue per user (ARPU) fell to $3.99 from $5.63 due to pricing differences compared to the U.S. However, the latest news shows that at the end of July Disney updated its streaming plan in India, introducing a mobile-only tier while increasing the overall price. Subsequent investors can pay attention to the impact on overall revenue.It should be noted that Disney's current streaming media business is still losing money, and the company does not expect to achieve profitability until fiscal year 2024.Unlike Netflix, Disney's ambition to go all-in on streaming goes beyond increases in subscription fees. After setting up the streaming media platform, the mass communication channels are broadened, and a platform for direct contact with individual consumers is established. In Disney's unique round revenue model, the subscription fee revenue of streaming media platform is only the first link revenue based on the content of film and television works in the round revenue model. Media network, theme park and consumer goods business account for the top two businesses of Disney's revenue. The interaction between offline real-life experience and online information helps Disney to penetrate the brand into all aspects of fans' life, such as food, clothing, housing and transportation, forming a closed-loop ecological chain of \"IP + media + realization channels\" with IP as the core.Bloomberg expectationsBloomberg unanimously expects that in the Q3 fiscal quarter of 2021, Disney's revenue will be US $16.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.6%; Adjusted net profit was US $861 million, a year-on-year increase of 138.6%; Adjusted earnings per share were $0.554, a year-over-year increase of 592.5%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39bd6d0567a65dfd3a4bfbddcacfa1e1\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a5c9ee763bdd068795172812d82227","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153261773","content_text":"8月11日消息，疫情阴霾再起，与此前不同，市场对流媒体公司的态度开始冷淡。今年3月份以来，奈飞维持区间震荡走势，迪士尼创新高后不久，股价掉头向下，至今仍旧低迷，而标普500在此期间缓慢上行。Delta变异病毒扰动下，疫情扰动之时，市场‘抛弃’迪士尼，‘观望’奈飞的逻辑是啥？迪士尼将于8月13日早间（8月12日美股盘后）发布2021财年Q3财季财务报告，有哪些看点？\n\n市场抛弃迪士尼的原因在于两点。其一，美国为了控制delta变异病毒的传播，再次关闭影院，迪士尼也据此推迟了电影上映时间表；其二，上一季度迪士尼发布的财报中，Disney+的订阅用户增长弱于市场预期。两大原因使得投资者对迪士尼的乐观情绪骤然降温、\n2021年Q3财季有啥要点需要关注\n首先，关注营收和订阅用户增长。Q2财季，迪士尼营收和订阅用户不及预期，使得其在财报发布后，股价重挫逾4%。因此Q3投资者需要关注这些指标是否有改善。\n先来看营收。回顾迪士尼近两年的业务可以看到，从去年二季度开始（2020年Q3财季），迪士尼的营收均少于去年同期，主要是新冠疫情期间主题公园关闭，导致相关业务营收骤降。财报显示，去年二季度、三季度、四季度，主题公园和衍生品业务的营收分别为10.65亿美元、27.33亿美元和35.88亿美元，而2019年同期分别为65.75亿美元、66.57亿美元和75.8亿美元。\n\n虽然，近三个季度主题公园和衍生品的业务在逐渐恢复，但随着Delta变异病毒传播，2021年Q2财季，主题公园和衍生品业务营收已出现回落，投资者需关注Delta变异病毒的传播拐点，以及疫苗接种进展。\n再来看订阅用户增长情况。虽然Q2财季，营收和订阅用户均不及市场预期，但市场更倾向于认为后者才是导致迪士尼财报后股价杀跌的主要因素。订阅用户之所以如此重要，是因为经过近两年的发展，流媒体业务正在成为迪士尼的核心业务。上一季度（2021年Q2财季），媒体及娱乐部（即流媒体）业务的营收占比达80%，主题公园及相关衍生品的收入占比20%。\n目前，迪士尼旗下有三个不同定位的平台：ESPN+、Hulu和大众熟知的Disney+。截至2021年4月3日的Q2财季，ESPN+用户为1380万（环比增长7%）；Hulu用户4160万（环比增长14.5%）；Disney+用户数为1.036亿（环比增长9.17%）。\nESPN+和Hulu：有分析师预计，到2024年，ESPN+和Hulu两项服务的订阅用户数或将达到1亿。\nDisney+的订阅用户增长已经放缓，这种趋势很可能在Q3财季继续。根据其7月初审查的内部数据，The Information报告称，Disney+美国订阅用户增长骤降，预计在Q3财季末，Disney+总订户数略高于 1.1亿，其增长主要来自印度和拉丁美洲。\n目前，印度Disney+ Hotstar频道约占 Disney+总订阅用户的三分之一，也是上一季度用户增长的主要来源。由于与美国相比定价存在差异，迪士尼的每用户平均收入 (ARPU)从 5.63美元降至 3.99美元。不过，最新消息显示，7月底迪士尼更新了其在印度的流媒体计划，引入了仅限移动设备的层级，同时提高了整体价格。后续投资者可关注对整体营收的影响。\n需要注意的是，当前迪士尼的流媒体业务还在亏损，公司预计要到2024财年才能实现盈利。\n与Netflix不同，迪士尼全力发展流媒体的野心不止于订阅费的增长。搭建起流媒体平台后，拓宽大众传播渠道，建立了直接触达消费者个体的平台。在迪士尼特有的轮次收入模式中，流媒体平台的订阅费收入在轮次收入模式中仅是基于影视作品内容的第一环节收入，媒体网络和主题乐园与消费品业务作为迪士尼营收占比前二的业务，线下实景体验与线上信息的交互作用助推迪士尼将品牌深入到粉丝的衣食住行等生活的方方面面，形成以IP为核心的“IP+传播媒介+变现渠道”的闭环生态链，形成IP与变现渠道的双向循环。\n彭博社预期\n彭博社一致预期，2021年Q3财季，迪士尼营收168亿美元，同比增长42.6%；调整后净利润8.61亿美元，同比大涨138.6%；调整后每股收益0.554美元，同比增长592.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2244,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}