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2021-08-05

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Tesla's Short-Term Advantages Aren't Enough

Contrary to common belief, Tesla has one main advantage over any competition emerging in the electric vehicle market, set to bolster its near-term prospects.Even so, current lofty valuation leaves little room for upside investment potential.I remain slightly bearish on the company's prospects.Tesla , the undoubted leader in the electric vehicle market, has had the share price run of a lifetime, rising nearly 1,500% over the past 24 months as markets rallied for the post-pandemic surge and the co

Tesla's Short-Term Advantages Aren't Enough

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These advantages mean that the company will remain superior in the near term when it comes to profitability and diversity within the EV industry and can best utilize the rapid growth rate the entire industry is expecting.\nThe Long-Term Headwinds Haven't Changed\nAs I've been highlighting for several months now,Tesla's long-term prospects have dimmedsince other automobile companies like Ford and General Motors (GM) in the United States, NIO (NIO) and others in the Asia-Pacific region and other European and South Korean automobile manufacturers moved up their electrification process timelines. The main reason for this is that these companies have very solid brand recognition, and individuals who have owned these models for years or decades have the option to opt for an electric version of those; they choose those over trying out a new untested model a majority of the time.\nWith companies like Ford introducing the all-electric F-150 and others, it's unclear how Tesla can maintain this high growth rate beyond 2024 as these models are expected to hit the streets and begin capturing back market share away from Tesla and other current models. Other factors like Tesla opening up their charging station network to all EV models, as well as a massive capital injection into EV charging stations in the most recent infrastructure spending bill in the United States, will surely help Tesla's income when it charges for the use, but it also helps other companies overcome the main hurdle of widespread adoption - clearing a pathway for more and more EV models to emerge.\nThe Short-Term Tailwinds Are Emerging\nTesla has several near-term tailwinds which will keep way ahead of any competition for the next 12 to 24 months. These mostly all boil down to profitability but also focus on various business model advantages.\n1. A positive profit margin: While other companies are just now beginning to invest in transforming their manufacturing facilities from fossil fuel intake engines to electric vehicle production, Tesla has done this and way more efficiently. Since they've built these from scratch, they've mostly automated the process and thus enjoy a much higher profit margin. Other companies won't see a profit per vehicle for years to come.\n2. Surging battery manufacturing: Although other companies have a mixed position on whether to manufacture their own batteries or set up joint ventures with existing companies, Tesla has been churning out batteries for years and have, as similar with the vehicle manufacturing process, nearly fully automated the process to maximize profits per unit.\n3. International manufacturing: Other companies, thus far, have focused on restructuring and transforming current assembly plants in the United States and will likely take several more years before they do so for other international facilities, which means they will need to spend a fortune shipping these new vehicles around the world to the EMEA and the Asia-Pacific. Tesla, on the other hand, has manufacturing facilities in the United States and in China and is set to open their plant in Germany as well as being in final development stages of an India plant, which will allow them to access a much larger market.\n4. Charging stations advantage: Although the new infrastructure bill in the United States, as well as massive investments in countries like Japan and China, are certain to put in hundreds of thousands of new EV charging stations across the globe, this will take time. So far, only Tesla has a real robust charging network across the world. A recent development, which does have negative elements to it as mentioned earlier, has a positive near term one - they will be raking in net profits from allowing other electric vehicles to charge on their network. This means that they'll likely be profiting from each vehicle their competitors churn out, at least until the scaling up of non-Tesla charging stations takes place.\n5. \"Other Business\" growth rate: While other automobile companies are still spending hand over fist on their other models and products, Tesla enjoys being only in high-growth industries like SolarCity's solar panels and battery sales. As I'll expand on in the next segment, they also don't have near-term or long-term financial obligations from these \"other business\" segments as establishment automobile companies have.\nBalance Sheet Advantages\nAlthough some elements of their balance sheet advantage are set to help them in the long run as well, they're mostly advantages for the short term since once these other companies begin making a profit from their EV sales - a lot of this will be reversed.\nTesla's main advantage, as mentioned earlier, is that they're actually raking in cash from each car they sell, allowing them to use that cash to continue and set up more manufacturing facilities and invest in battery technology, solar technology and production increases. This is contrary to other automobile companies which have high financial obligations to their other business segments like pensions and leases. This will further aid the company's overall profit margin, while they don't struggle with such obligations.\nThese other companies will need to use profits and cash from their existing legacy business segments to pay for their losses on each vehicle they produce, hurting their overall valuation moving forward.\nAlthough Tesla has $6.9 billion inlong-term debt, a factor which kept many investors on the sidelines as debt racked up, they currently hold just under $16.3 billion in cash and equivalents, making their net debt position negative. They've been using the cash to pay down their debt as well,reducing their interest expense burdenfrom almost $800 million in 2020 to just over $500 million in 2021. Tesla paid back $15 billion in debt in 2021 for a net debt reduction of $6 billion. There's very little doubt that other automobile companies will be forced to take on more debt to finance increased production and in this raising rate environment, that can snowball.\nTesla is set to seecash flowof around $10 billion annually whereas a company like Ford has been fluctuating between a net positive and negative cash flow status for the past few years, and that's not expected to change through 2025 as they continue to increase investments in the electrification of their vehicles.\nWhat About Current Valuation\nAnalystscurrently expect the company to report EPS of $5.38 for 2021 and grow at a fast pace to reach EPS of $10.33 for 2024. As I mentioned in my earlier article, I believe that, given comparison with other major automobile companies, the company is fairly valued at around 75x forward earnings.\nI do, however, believe that some of the current competition expectations are overblown for the near term, as I've been mentioning throughout the entire article. Therefore, I do believe that Tesla will outperform current expectations at least through 2023. This means that a 75x forward earnings multiple is the ground base for appropriate valuation, I believe.\nThis presents the following fair value, with the implied increase potential:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052968e079d7fe8419e4790de451c9fd\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"201\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As you can see, this means that Tesla is almost 40% overvalued relative to earnings expectations, even if they overcome them by as much as 20%. However, given that these expectations are likely to be beaten, I don't believe that shorting the company is a good idea, but one thing that is worth looking out for is a general market correction.\nThe Biggest Risk Of Owning Tesla\nThe biggest risk with owning Tesla right now is that, in a general market correction, which can happen at any moment as the post-pandemic trade is winding down, companies with lofty expectations tend to fall the most as fair value is sought beyond what their potential is way down the line.\nI don't believe that shorting Tesla is the right approach, even though my disclosures down below and in previous article state that I am, given general market exposure. I am short simply because I don't believe that much upwards potential is there, whilst downward potential in a market correction is vast. So, given that I am mostly long, this short is a general portfolio hedge while I reduce positions in case of a correction.\nIn Conclusion\nTesla has several positive catalysts which should keep them on top of the EV industry growth roster for the next 24 to 36 months, while other companies struggle to make even a single penny on their new vehicles. These are set, I believe, to allow them to beat earnings expectations for that time period.\nEven so, their long-term competitive pressures remain high and as I stated in my previous article - their long-term growth prospects will continue to dim as time moves on.\nEven with these positive near-term advantages, I still believe that the company is overvalued by as much as 40%, and although I do not favor shorting the company for this overvaluation, I remain slightly bearish on their long-term prospects and neutral to slightly bullish on their near-term one.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Short-Term Advantages Aren't Enough</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Short-Term Advantages Aren't Enough\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 22:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445360-tesla-short-term-advantages-are-not-enough>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nContrary to common belief, Tesla has one main advantage over any competition emerging in the electric vehicle market, set to bolster its near-term prospects.\nEven so, current lofty valuation ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445360-tesla-short-term-advantages-are-not-enough\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445360-tesla-short-term-advantages-are-not-enough","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1175346944","content_text":"Summary\n\nContrary to common belief, Tesla has one main advantage over any competition emerging in the electric vehicle market, set to bolster its near-term prospects.\nEven so, current lofty valuation leaves little room for upside investment potential.\nI remain slightly bearish on the company's prospects.\n\nTesla (TSLA), the undoubted leader in the electric vehicle market, has had the share price run of a lifetime, rising nearly 1,500% over the past 24 months as markets rallied for the post-pandemic surge and the company continued reporting solid sales and income growth.\nI've argued in the past that, although the company has several strong long-term growth avenues to pursue, their long-term prospects are dimmed compared to what analysts have projected, given the amount of competition emerging in the EV industry over the course of the next few years.\nBut that's a whole other thing than the company's near-term prospects, which I believe are grand relative to some of the established players shifting over to electric vehicle production, as I've highlighted inmy recent articleon Ford (F). These advantages mean that the company will remain superior in the near term when it comes to profitability and diversity within the EV industry and can best utilize the rapid growth rate the entire industry is expecting.\nThe Long-Term Headwinds Haven't Changed\nAs I've been highlighting for several months now,Tesla's long-term prospects have dimmedsince other automobile companies like Ford and General Motors (GM) in the United States, NIO (NIO) and others in the Asia-Pacific region and other European and South Korean automobile manufacturers moved up their electrification process timelines. The main reason for this is that these companies have very solid brand recognition, and individuals who have owned these models for years or decades have the option to opt for an electric version of those; they choose those over trying out a new untested model a majority of the time.\nWith companies like Ford introducing the all-electric F-150 and others, it's unclear how Tesla can maintain this high growth rate beyond 2024 as these models are expected to hit the streets and begin capturing back market share away from Tesla and other current models. Other factors like Tesla opening up their charging station network to all EV models, as well as a massive capital injection into EV charging stations in the most recent infrastructure spending bill in the United States, will surely help Tesla's income when it charges for the use, but it also helps other companies overcome the main hurdle of widespread adoption - clearing a pathway for more and more EV models to emerge.\nThe Short-Term Tailwinds Are Emerging\nTesla has several near-term tailwinds which will keep way ahead of any competition for the next 12 to 24 months. These mostly all boil down to profitability but also focus on various business model advantages.\n1. A positive profit margin: While other companies are just now beginning to invest in transforming their manufacturing facilities from fossil fuel intake engines to electric vehicle production, Tesla has done this and way more efficiently. Since they've built these from scratch, they've mostly automated the process and thus enjoy a much higher profit margin. Other companies won't see a profit per vehicle for years to come.\n2. Surging battery manufacturing: Although other companies have a mixed position on whether to manufacture their own batteries or set up joint ventures with existing companies, Tesla has been churning out batteries for years and have, as similar with the vehicle manufacturing process, nearly fully automated the process to maximize profits per unit.\n3. International manufacturing: Other companies, thus far, have focused on restructuring and transforming current assembly plants in the United States and will likely take several more years before they do so for other international facilities, which means they will need to spend a fortune shipping these new vehicles around the world to the EMEA and the Asia-Pacific. Tesla, on the other hand, has manufacturing facilities in the United States and in China and is set to open their plant in Germany as well as being in final development stages of an India plant, which will allow them to access a much larger market.\n4. Charging stations advantage: Although the new infrastructure bill in the United States, as well as massive investments in countries like Japan and China, are certain to put in hundreds of thousands of new EV charging stations across the globe, this will take time. So far, only Tesla has a real robust charging network across the world. A recent development, which does have negative elements to it as mentioned earlier, has a positive near term one - they will be raking in net profits from allowing other electric vehicles to charge on their network. This means that they'll likely be profiting from each vehicle their competitors churn out, at least until the scaling up of non-Tesla charging stations takes place.\n5. \"Other Business\" growth rate: While other automobile companies are still spending hand over fist on their other models and products, Tesla enjoys being only in high-growth industries like SolarCity's solar panels and battery sales. As I'll expand on in the next segment, they also don't have near-term or long-term financial obligations from these \"other business\" segments as establishment automobile companies have.\nBalance Sheet Advantages\nAlthough some elements of their balance sheet advantage are set to help them in the long run as well, they're mostly advantages for the short term since once these other companies begin making a profit from their EV sales - a lot of this will be reversed.\nTesla's main advantage, as mentioned earlier, is that they're actually raking in cash from each car they sell, allowing them to use that cash to continue and set up more manufacturing facilities and invest in battery technology, solar technology and production increases. This is contrary to other automobile companies which have high financial obligations to their other business segments like pensions and leases. This will further aid the company's overall profit margin, while they don't struggle with such obligations.\nThese other companies will need to use profits and cash from their existing legacy business segments to pay for their losses on each vehicle they produce, hurting their overall valuation moving forward.\nAlthough Tesla has $6.9 billion inlong-term debt, a factor which kept many investors on the sidelines as debt racked up, they currently hold just under $16.3 billion in cash and equivalents, making their net debt position negative. They've been using the cash to pay down their debt as well,reducing their interest expense burdenfrom almost $800 million in 2020 to just over $500 million in 2021. Tesla paid back $15 billion in debt in 2021 for a net debt reduction of $6 billion. There's very little doubt that other automobile companies will be forced to take on more debt to finance increased production and in this raising rate environment, that can snowball.\nTesla is set to seecash flowof around $10 billion annually whereas a company like Ford has been fluctuating between a net positive and negative cash flow status for the past few years, and that's not expected to change through 2025 as they continue to increase investments in the electrification of their vehicles.\nWhat About Current Valuation\nAnalystscurrently expect the company to report EPS of $5.38 for 2021 and grow at a fast pace to reach EPS of $10.33 for 2024. As I mentioned in my earlier article, I believe that, given comparison with other major automobile companies, the company is fairly valued at around 75x forward earnings.\nI do, however, believe that some of the current competition expectations are overblown for the near term, as I've been mentioning throughout the entire article. Therefore, I do believe that Tesla will outperform current expectations at least through 2023. This means that a 75x forward earnings multiple is the ground base for appropriate valuation, I believe.\nThis presents the following fair value, with the implied increase potential:\nAs you can see, this means that Tesla is almost 40% overvalued relative to earnings expectations, even if they overcome them by as much as 20%. However, given that these expectations are likely to be beaten, I don't believe that shorting the company is a good idea, but one thing that is worth looking out for is a general market correction.\nThe Biggest Risk Of Owning Tesla\nThe biggest risk with owning Tesla right now is that, in a general market correction, which can happen at any moment as the post-pandemic trade is winding down, companies with lofty expectations tend to fall the most as fair value is sought beyond what their potential is way down the line.\nI don't believe that shorting Tesla is the right approach, even though my disclosures down below and in previous article state that I am, given general market exposure. I am short simply because I don't believe that much upwards potential is there, whilst downward potential in a market correction is vast. So, given that I am mostly long, this short is a general portfolio hedge while I reduce positions in case of a correction.\nIn Conclusion\nTesla has several positive catalysts which should keep them on top of the EV industry growth roster for the next 24 to 36 months, while other companies struggle to make even a single penny on their new vehicles. These are set, I believe, to allow them to beat earnings expectations for that time period.\nEven so, their long-term competitive pressures remain high and as I stated in my previous article - their long-term growth prospects will continue to dim as time moves on.\nEven with these positive near-term advantages, I still believe that the company is overvalued by as much as 40%, and although I do not favor shorting the company for this overvaluation, I remain slightly bearish on their long-term prospects and neutral to slightly bullish on their near-term one.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}