Good-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community

1
Comment
Favorite

jiakit
2022-01-04

Good

Doubled in three days amid pessimism! What happened to SenseTime?

摘要：申万宏源刘洋团队认为，虽然行业情况并没有发生根本变化，但全球科技和资本市场格局变了。以后，科创板/港股/北交所将承担更多科技力量。2022年1月4日，港股商汤继续逆市大涨，上市之后四连涨。截至发

Doubled in three days amid pessimism! What happened to SenseTime?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

No comments yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9001539780,"tweetId":"9001539780","gmtCreate":1641269104081,"gmtModify":1676533591347,"author":{"id":4094690095246560,"idStr":"4094690095246560","authorId":4094690095246560,"authorIdStr":"4094690095246560","name":"jiakit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1920b6f979eee904cab1954836930d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001539780","repostId":2200717854,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2200717854","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1641268267,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2200717854?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-04 11:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Doubled in three days amid pessimism! What happened to SenseTime?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2200717854","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：申万宏源刘洋团队认为，虽然行业情况并没有发生根本变化，但全球科技和资本市场格局变了。以后，科创板/港股/北交所将承担更多科技力量。2022年1月4日，港股商汤继续逆市大涨，上市之后四连涨。截至发","content":"<html><head></head><body>Abstract: Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that although the industry situation has not fundamentally changed, the global technology and capital market pattern has changed. In the future, Science and Technology Innovation Board/Hong Kong Stock Exchange/North Stock Exchange will undertake more scientific and technological strength. On January 4, 2022, Shangtang, a Hong Kong stock market, continued to rise against the market, and rose for four consecutive times after its listing. As of press time, Shangtang rose by 10.97%, continuing the previous miracle of doubling the stock price in three days. At the same time, the outstanding performance of Shangtang has also inspired the \"AI brothers\" of A shares.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688088\">ArcSoft Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002415\">Hikvision</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002230\">iFlytek</a>A number of \"AI concept stocks\" such as Dahua shares opened higher in early trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab04b1a49051bec7b6d05ee49038e765\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>However, Shangtang, which has superimposed the concept of meta-universe and the name of \"AI First Stock\", has a bumpy listing process behind the glamorous stock price. Last month, SenseTime was stranded due to many external adverse news.Fortunately, Shangtang resisted the pressure, and by December 20th, it had quickly completed a series of complicated procedures, readjusted the share structure, and issued the Prospectus again, announcing its listing on December 30th, with the issuance scale and pricing range unchanged.At this time, some investors have noticed that the list of cornerstone investors in Shangtang has undergone major changes.Foreign cornerstone investors such as Pleiad, WT, Focustar Capital, Focustar Fund and Hel Ved have exited.Since then, there have been a lot of doubts.For fundamentals,After reading the prospectus, some investors found that the proportion of single customers of Shangtang was too high and the continuity of existing customers was not high, which questioned the sustainability and stability of Shangtang's income; Some investors also think that the proportion of customized business of Shangtang is too high, and they are suspicious of the cost control ability of Shangtang business. They are worried that the scale expansion cannot reduce the cost, resulting in \"operating leverage\" becoming \"operating negative leverage\", which makes the company unprofitable.In terms of stock price,Some investors are worried that external adverse factors will lead to the loss of a large number of foreign investors, and at the same time, the business growth prospects will be affected, resulting in the current cornerstone investors' strong willingness to launch after the lock-in period, resulting in long-term instability of the stock price.In addition,In terms of liquidity,Some investors are worried that because cornerstone investors account for the majority of the share, the company's share price will have a strong steady trend in the short term, but its long-term liquidity is worrying.However, after the listing, SenseTime went out of the trend that exceeded most investors' expectations. So, why can Shangtang share price surge in a pessimistic voice?In this regard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Liu Yang's team believes that,The current trend of Shangtang exceeds the expectations of many investors, which is inseparable from the general environment that investors are more concerned about whether stocks are related to AI industry and whether they are related to the hot spots of the metaverse.The team mentioned:According to the SenseTime prospectus, stating that \"we have built a multi-layer infrastructure to empower IoT devices and drive the Metaverse to enhance the end-user experience\", \"in 2016, …, over the years, more than 450 million<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Mobile phones and more than 200 mobile phone applications are empowered, and it has become one of the largest metaverse empowerment platforms \") In the past year, AI companies in review have encountered setbacks in listing to the current process of being listed at a loss.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Liu Yang's team concluded that although the industry situation has not fundamentally changed,But the global technology and capital market landscape has changed. In the future, Science and Technology Innovation Board/Hong Kong Stock Exchange/North Stock Exchange will undertake more scientific and technological strength.At the same time, the team believes that the current trend of Shangtang that exceeds the expectations of many investors can bring the following two inspirations to investors.<h2>1. Three Opportunities for Accelerating AI Implementation in 2022</h2>The fragmented scene of AI has divided the leading companies into two paths, \"lower cost\" represented by Hikvision Dahua and \"larger model\" represented by Shangtang and Megvii. Specifically,AI companies such as SenseTime and Megvii choose to develop self-developed deep learning training platforms,A \"big device\" base has been built-that is, an AI infrastructure completely self-developed including computing power, algorithms, platforms and the underlying training reasoning framework.First of all, after analyzing these two AI paths, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that:<ul><li>Smart City/Security/Intelligent Manufacturing, will still be Hikvision,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002236\">Dahua Shares</a>Advantage industries of the path;</li><li>Mobile phones, medical care and other areas that may be tried by large models of Shangtang and Megvii TechnologyAt present, AI penetration needs to be improvedLogistics, Automotive IndustryThen stillMore time is needed to verify.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b456572de0838c9f0122212c3939e65\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Regarding the prospect of the artificial intelligence industry in 2022, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that the AI industry will usher in triple opportunities for accelerated landing:1) Mature application scenarios emerge; 2) Intensive catalysis of the 14th Five-Year Plan policy; 3) AI unicorn listing tide opens.1) Opportunity 1: The emergence of mature application scenariosShen Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that at present, intelligent manufacturing, intelligent warehousing and logistics, intelligent finance,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000816\">Smart agriculture</a>Smart medical care, smart home, etc.Mature AI application scenarios are emergingLeading AI companies have a large number of benchmarking cases.At the same time, from the ROI (return on investment) analysis, the team believes that,The high returns of the AI industry can accelerate the popularization of the AI industry:Based on the AI case provided by Hikvision's official WeChat official account, we calculate that the ROI of customers after purchase is mostly 50%-150%, and the payback period is only 1-2 years; According to the research results of iResearch, 50% of enterprise AI projects have a return cycle of 1~3 years, and 36% of enterprises have a return cycle of 0.5~1 year. High ROI catalyzes the accelerated popularization of AI empowerment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595cd2667929873bf94d0fddcd6773dd\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2) Opportunity 2: Intensive Catalysis of the 14th Five-Year Plan PolicyRecently, official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has intensively published the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" development plan for intelligent and information-related industries, which puts forward multi-level development goals for the artificial intelligence industry. Shen Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that:<ul><li>At the G-end of To,The 14th Five-Year Plan contains a large number of requirements to improve the government's digital governance capability, which is expected to be accelerated in 2022;</li><li>AI is also an implementationDual carbon targetedImportant means.</li></ul>The policies related to artificial intelligence are combed out as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81149bb8dcb82f70ca88ac49a3b5557c\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"839\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Opportunity 3: AI unicorn listing tide opensAfter Shangtang, AI companies such as Yuncong Technology, Megvii Technology, Yuntian Lifei and Geling Shentong plan to be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2022; Fourth Paradigm, Innovation Qizhi and other AI cutting-edges have also submitted prospectuses to HKEx to actively promote the listing process. In this context, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team expects that,The tide of AI unicorn listing is expected to bring higher attention and valuation anchor to the AI sector.Furthermore, the team believes that:In the post-demographic dividend era, AI is expected to become a high-prosperity track for more than ten years; The conditions for explosive demand growth are already in place, and the bottleneck at this stage may lie in the supply side; The industry will gain triple opportunities, including a large number of demonstration effects of successful cases of AI empowerment, a large number of policy catalysis in the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the tide of AI unicorn listing. Focus on the landing ability of AI enterprises.<h2>2. Hong Kong stock TMT, re-evaluation of cognition</h2>Shen Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that,Changes in the pattern of global technology and capital markets, Hong Kong stocks may be undervalued, and in the future, Hong Kong stocks are expected to become a new global capitalization harbor for technology。The team concluded:1) Investors believe that the different investor components and valuation systems in Hong Kong market/mainland China market are the factors hindering the performance of Hong Kong stocks' technology. 2) Hard technology has been listed in A shares and is world-class. Soft technology used to favor overseas listings because its growth was often non-linear. 3) It is expected that in the future, the business model belongs to intangible assets to create value. With the changes of overseas listing environment, more Hong Kong IPOs will be chosen. 4) TMT's \"soft and hard technology\" has industrial chain linkage and transmission, and the maturity of \"hard technology\" leads to a more mature \"soft technology\" industry. From a domestic perspective: Hong Kong stocks that are convenient to invest in are easier than those in Europe and the United States. Therefore, we expect the valuation system of domestic investors going to Hong Kong stocks to invest in \"soft technology\" to be different from before (before, there were most European and American investors, but Hong Kong stocks were not the best choice). 5) At present, the static PS of SenseTime in 2020 is about 61 times, which is higher than that of Hang Seng Technology Index/A-share AI. It has a demonstration effect, and this \"demonstration effect\" may have a far-reaching impact.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034269e5bc2020ed77b44e86f6ff91c9\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Doubled in three days amid pessimism! What happened to SenseTime?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoubled in three days amid pessimism! What happened to SenseTime?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2022-01-04 11:51\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Abstract: Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that although the industry situation has not fundamentally changed, the global technology and capital market pattern has changed. In the future, Science and Technology Innovation Board/Hong Kong Stock Exchange/North Stock Exchange will undertake more scientific and technological strength. On January 4, 2022, Shangtang, a Hong Kong stock market, continued to rise against the market, and rose for four consecutive times after its listing. As of press time, Shangtang rose by 10.97%, continuing the previous miracle of doubling the stock price in three days. At the same time, the outstanding performance of Shangtang has also inspired the \"AI brothers\" of A shares.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688088\">ArcSoft Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002415\">Hikvision</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002230\">iFlytek</a>A number of \"AI concept stocks\" such as Dahua shares opened higher in early trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab04b1a49051bec7b6d05ee49038e765\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>However, Shangtang, which has superimposed the concept of meta-universe and the name of \"AI First Stock\", has a bumpy listing process behind the glamorous stock price. Last month, SenseTime was stranded due to many external adverse news.Fortunately, Shangtang resisted the pressure, and by December 20th, it had quickly completed a series of complicated procedures, readjusted the share structure, and issued the Prospectus again, announcing its listing on December 30th, with the issuance scale and pricing range unchanged.At this time, some investors have noticed that the list of cornerstone investors in Shangtang has undergone major changes.Foreign cornerstone investors such as Pleiad, WT, Focustar Capital, Focustar Fund and Hel Ved have exited.Since then, there have been a lot of doubts.For fundamentals,After reading the prospectus, some investors found that the proportion of single customers of Shangtang was too high and the continuity of existing customers was not high, which questioned the sustainability and stability of Shangtang's income; Some investors also think that the proportion of customized business of Shangtang is too high, and they are suspicious of the cost control ability of Shangtang business. They are worried that the scale expansion cannot reduce the cost, resulting in \"operating leverage\" becoming \"operating negative leverage\", which makes the company unprofitable.In terms of stock price,Some investors are worried that external adverse factors will lead to the loss of a large number of foreign investors, and at the same time, the business growth prospects will be affected, resulting in the current cornerstone investors' strong willingness to launch after the lock-in period, resulting in long-term instability of the stock price.In addition,In terms of liquidity,Some investors are worried that because cornerstone investors account for the majority of the share, the company's share price will have a strong steady trend in the short term, but its long-term liquidity is worrying.However, after the listing, SenseTime went out of the trend that exceeded most investors' expectations. So, why can Shangtang share price surge in a pessimistic voice?In this regard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Liu Yang's team believes that,The current trend of Shangtang exceeds the expectations of many investors, which is inseparable from the general environment that investors are more concerned about whether stocks are related to AI industry and whether they are related to the hot spots of the metaverse.The team mentioned:According to the SenseTime prospectus, stating that \"we have built a multi-layer infrastructure to empower IoT devices and drive the Metaverse to enhance the end-user experience\", \"in 2016, …, over the years, more than 450 million<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Mobile phones and more than 200 mobile phone applications are empowered, and it has become one of the largest metaverse empowerment platforms \") In the past year, AI companies in review have encountered setbacks in listing to the current process of being listed at a loss.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Liu Yang's team concluded that although the industry situation has not fundamentally changed,But the global technology and capital market landscape has changed. In the future, Science and Technology Innovation Board/Hong Kong Stock Exchange/North Stock Exchange will undertake more scientific and technological strength.At the same time, the team believes that the current trend of Shangtang that exceeds the expectations of many investors can bring the following two inspirations to investors.<h2>1. Three Opportunities for Accelerating AI Implementation in 2022</h2>The fragmented scene of AI has divided the leading companies into two paths, \"lower cost\" represented by Hikvision Dahua and \"larger model\" represented by Shangtang and Megvii. Specifically,AI companies such as SenseTime and Megvii choose to develop self-developed deep learning training platforms,A \"big device\" base has been built-that is, an AI infrastructure completely self-developed including computing power, algorithms, platforms and the underlying training reasoning framework.First of all, after analyzing these two AI paths, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that:<ul><li>Smart City/Security/Intelligent Manufacturing, will still be Hikvision,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002236\">Dahua Shares</a>Advantage industries of the path;</li><li>Mobile phones, medical care and other areas that may be tried by large models of Shangtang and Megvii TechnologyAt present, AI penetration needs to be improvedLogistics, Automotive IndustryThen stillMore time is needed to verify.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b456572de0838c9f0122212c3939e65\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Regarding the prospect of the artificial intelligence industry in 2022, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that the AI industry will usher in triple opportunities for accelerated landing:1) Mature application scenarios emerge; 2) Intensive catalysis of the 14th Five-Year Plan policy; 3) AI unicorn listing tide opens.1) Opportunity 1: The emergence of mature application scenariosShen Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that at present, intelligent manufacturing, intelligent warehousing and logistics, intelligent finance,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000816\">Smart agriculture</a>Smart medical care, smart home, etc.Mature AI application scenarios are emergingLeading AI companies have a large number of benchmarking cases.At the same time, from the ROI (return on investment) analysis, the team believes that,The high returns of the AI industry can accelerate the popularization of the AI industry:Based on the AI case provided by Hikvision's official WeChat official account, we calculate that the ROI of customers after purchase is mostly 50%-150%, and the payback period is only 1-2 years; According to the research results of iResearch, 50% of enterprise AI projects have a return cycle of 1~3 years, and 36% of enterprises have a return cycle of 0.5~1 year. High ROI catalyzes the accelerated popularization of AI empowerment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595cd2667929873bf94d0fddcd6773dd\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2) Opportunity 2: Intensive Catalysis of the 14th Five-Year Plan PolicyRecently, official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has intensively published the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" development plan for intelligent and information-related industries, which puts forward multi-level development goals for the artificial intelligence industry. Shen Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that:<ul><li>At the G-end of To,The 14th Five-Year Plan contains a large number of requirements to improve the government's digital governance capability, which is expected to be accelerated in 2022;</li><li>AI is also an implementationDual carbon targetedImportant means.</li></ul>The policies related to artificial intelligence are combed out as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81149bb8dcb82f70ca88ac49a3b5557c\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"839\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Opportunity 3: AI unicorn listing tide opensAfter Shangtang, AI companies such as Yuncong Technology, Megvii Technology, Yuntian Lifei and Geling Shentong plan to be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2022; Fourth Paradigm, Innovation Qizhi and other AI cutting-edges have also submitted prospectuses to HKEx to actively promote the listing process. In this context, Shenwan Hongyuan Liu Yang's team expects that,The tide of AI unicorn listing is expected to bring higher attention and valuation anchor to the AI sector.Furthermore, the team believes that:In the post-demographic dividend era, AI is expected to become a high-prosperity track for more than ten years; The conditions for explosive demand growth are already in place, and the bottleneck at this stage may lie in the supply side; The industry will gain triple opportunities, including a large number of demonstration effects of successful cases of AI empowerment, a large number of policy catalysis in the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the tide of AI unicorn listing. Focus on the landing ability of AI enterprises.<h2>2. Hong Kong stock TMT, re-evaluation of cognition</h2>Shen Hongyuan Liu Yang's team believes that,Changes in the pattern of global technology and capital markets, Hong Kong stocks may be undervalued, and in the future, Hong Kong stocks are expected to become a new global capitalization harbor for technology。The team concluded:1) Investors believe that the different investor components and valuation systems in Hong Kong market/mainland China market are the factors hindering the performance of Hong Kong stocks' technology. 2) Hard technology has been listed in A shares and is world-class. Soft technology used to favor overseas listings because its growth was often non-linear. 3) It is expected that in the future, the business model belongs to intangible assets to create value. With the changes of overseas listing environment, more Hong Kong IPOs will be chosen. 4) TMT's \"soft and hard technology\" has industrial chain linkage and transmission, and the maturity of \"hard technology\" leads to a more mature \"soft technology\" industry. From a domestic perspective: Hong Kong stocks that are convenient to invest in are easier than those in Europe and the United States. Therefore, we expect the valuation system of domestic investors going to Hong Kong stocks to invest in \"soft technology\" to be different from before (before, there were most European and American investors, but Hong Kong stocks were not the best choice). 5) At present, the static PS of SenseTime in 2020 is about 61 times, which is higher than that of Hang Seng Technology Index/A-share AI. It has a demonstration effect, and this \"demonstration effect\" may have a far-reaching impact.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034269e5bc2020ed77b44e86f6ff91c9\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3648778\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2be8352a2da2e1aeca513d0b204831","relate_stocks":{"00020":"商汤-W"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3648778","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2200717854","content_text":"摘要：申万宏源刘洋团队认为，虽然行业情况并没有发生根本变化，但全球科技和资本市场格局变了。以后，科创板/港股/北交所将承担更多科技力量。2022年1月4日，港股商汤继续逆市大涨，上市之后四连涨。截至发稿，商汤涨幅达10.97%，延续了此前股价三天翻倍的神迹。同时，商汤的优异表现也激励了A股的“AI兄弟”，虹软科技、海康威视、科大讯飞、大华股份等一众“AI概念股”早盘纷纷高开。然而，叠加了元宇宙概念、“AI第一股”名号的商汤，在股价光鲜的背后，却是坎坷的上市历程。上个月，商汤更是因诸多外部不利消息导致上市计划一度搁浅。好在，商汤顶住了压力，到12月20日便已迅速完成了一系列复杂手续，重新调整股份结构，并再次刊发《招股章程》，宣布于12月30日上市，且发行规模和定价区间不变。这时，已有投资者注意到，商汤的基石投资者名单已经发生了重大改变。Pleiad、WT、Focustar Capital、Focustar Fund 和 Hel Ved 等外资基石投资者已相继退出。此后，大量质疑声四起。对于基本面，有投资者在读完招股书后发现，商汤的单个客户占比过高以及存量客户延续性不高，对于商汤收入的可持续性及稳定性发出质疑；也有投资者认为商汤的定制业务占比过高，对商汤业务的成本费用控制能力起疑，担心规模扩增却无法降成本，导致“经营杠杆”变成“经营负杠杆”，使得公司无法盈利。在股价上看，有投资者担心，外部不利因素会导致大量外资投资者流失，同时业务增长前景会受到影响，导致当前的基石投资者在锁定期后推出意愿强烈，导致股价的长期不稳。此外，在流动性方面，还有投资者担心由于基石投资者占大部分份额，会使得公司股价虽在短期稳健趋势强劲，但长期流动性堪忧。然而，上市后的商汤走出了超过多数投资者预期的走势。那么，为何商汤能在一片悲观声中股价气势如虹？对此，申万宏源刘洋团队认为，商汤当前超过较多投资者预期的走势，与目前投资者们更关心股票是否与AI行业有关，是否与元宇宙热点有关的大环境脱不开干系。该团队提及：根据商汤招股说明书，指出“我们已构建用于赋能IoT设备及驱动元宇宙(Metaverse)的多层基础设施，以提升终端使用者体验”，“2016年,……,多年来已为超过450百万部智能手机及超过200个手机应用程序赋能，并成为最大的元宇宙赋能平台之一”）复盘过去一年AI公司从遭遇上市挫折，到目前可以亏损上市的历程，申万宏源刘洋团队总结到，虽行业情况并没有发生根本变化，但全球科技和资本市场格局变了。以后，科创板/港股/北交所将承担更多科技力量。同时，该团队认为，商汤当下超众多投资者预期的走势，可以给投资者带来以下两点启发。1. 2022年AI落地加速的三种机遇AI的碎片化场景落地，使得领军公司分为两种路径，以海康大华为代表的“更低的成本”和商汤、旷视为代表的“更大的模型”。具体来说，商汤、旷视等AI企业选择自研深度学习训练平台，搭建了“大装置”底座——即包含算力、算法、平台和底层训练推理框架完全自研的AI基础设施。首先，在对这两种AI路径进行分析后，申万宏源刘洋团队认为：智慧城市/安防/智能制造环节，仍将是海康威视、大华股份路径的优势行业；手机、医疗等可能商汤、旷视科技的大模型努力尝试的领域，目前AI渗透有待提升的物流、汽车行业则仍需要更多时间验证。对于人工智能行业在2022年的前景，申万宏源刘洋团队认为，AI产业将迎来落地加速的三重机遇：1）成熟的应用场景涌现；2）十四五政策密集催化；3）AI 独角兽上市潮开启。1）机遇一：成熟的应用场景涌现申万宏源刘洋团队认为，当下智能制造、智慧仓储物流、智慧金融、智慧农业、智慧医疗、智能家居等成熟的AI应用场景正在涌现，领军AI 公司已有大量标杆案例。同时，从ROI（投资回报率）上分析，该团队认为，AI行业的高回报可以加速AI产业的普及：以海康威视官方公众号提供的AI案例为计算依据，我们计算客户采购后ROI大多为50%-150%，投资回收期仅为1-2年；根据艾瑞咨询的调研结果，50%的企业AI项目回报周期在1~3年，36%的企业回报周期在0.5~1年。高ROI催化了AI赋能加速普及。2）机遇二：十四五政策密集催化近期，工信部官网密集刊登智能化、信息化相关产业的“十四五”发展规划，其中对人工智能产业提出了多层次发展目标。申万宏源刘洋团队认为：在To G端，十四五规划中包含大量提高政府数字化治理能力的要求，预计将在2022年加快落地；AI也是实现双碳目标的重要手段。对与人工智能有关的政策进行了梳理如下表所示：3）机遇三：AI 独角兽上市潮开启在商汤之后，云从科技、旷视科技、云天励飞、格灵深瞳等AI公司拟于2022年在科创板完成上市；第四范式、创新奇智等AI新锐也已向港交所递交招股书，积极推进上市进程。在此背景下，申万宏源刘洋团队预期，AI独角兽上市潮有望为AI板块带来更高的关注度和估值锚。此外，该团队认为：后人口红利时代，AI有望成为十年以上的高景气赛道；需求爆发增长的条件已经具备，现阶段瓶颈可能在于供给端；行业将获得AI赋能成功案例大量示范效应、十四五大量政策催化、AI独角兽上市潮等三重机遇；重点关注AI企业的落地能力。2. 港股TMT，认知的再评估申万宏源刘洋团队认为，全球科技和资本市场格局的变化，港股可能被低估，未来，港股有望成为科技新的全球资本化港湾。该团队总结到：1）投资者认为香港市场/中国大陆市场不同的投资者成分、估值体系，是阻碍港股科技表现的因素。2）硬科技已A股上市，且属于世界一流。软科技曾经青睐海外上市，因其成长经常并非线性。3）预计未来，商业模式属于无形资产创造价值的，伴随海外上市环境变化，会更多选择港股IPO。4）TMT的“软硬科技”存在产业链联动和传导，“硬科技“的成熟，导致“软科技”产业更成熟。而从国内的视角：便于投资的港股比投向欧美容易。因此，国内投资者去港股投资“软科技“的估值体系，我们预计会和以前不同（之前欧美投资者居多，但港股不是其最优选择）。5）当前商汤的2020年静态PS约61倍，高于恒生科技指数/A股AI，有示范效应，且这种“示范效应”可能会产生深远影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"90006":1,"00020":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1677,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}