To The Moon

Nio Day was successfully opened on December 18th, and the new car ET5 continues to shine this time. It is an upgraded version of the small ET7. This car is as competitive as the ET7. Starting at 32.8W, I always thought it was a 20W car, but I was still wrong. Nio's product has absolute confidence. I don't want to talk about the configuration of the car. If you follow NIO, you probably already know all of this. I think it is meaningful to talk about the development of the company. Wrote a post about wei to before, and draw a wei to the future of the continued, wei to this year's share price is very weak, last year's surge is on the one hand, on the other hand, this year is really no big breakthrough, to put it bluntly, is in the science of uniting the internal strength, issued et7 in early 2021, released by the end of et5, both car delivery next year, Et7 will be delivered on March 28th next year. This should be to comply with the previous commitment. Et5 will be delivered in September next year, maybe on September 28th as well. Why are you still optimistic about NIO? I think the value of this stock game is relatively high and it may not succeed. There is no need to rush to buy it now. 1. The scale of electrical changing station has accelerated. So far, 700+ have been built, much more than expected at the beginning of the year. Next year, the total amount will reach 1300+, which is a double increase, and I think it is likely to reach 1500+ (subjective guess). Most of the time, we talk about the company's moat and differentiated competition, which is the moat and differentiation. On the topic of changing power stations, many people will think that it is chicken rib, and some people will think that the assets are too heavy, but the experience that changing batteries can provide is really unmatched by charging. In addition, with the continuous growth of sales, the construction speed of changing stations will be greatly accelerated, because the number of vehicles and the number of changing stations are mutually promoting. Companies can reduce costs and users can experience better services. Moreover, according to the recent national plan, it also supports the simultaneous development of electrical switching and charging, which is also the key. Currently, only NIO is building large-scale self-built electrical switching stations, and the heavy asset it seems at present may be the advantage of development in the future. Therefore, niO this year is laying the foundation for a better takeoff next year. 2. Capacity bottleneck. At present, the most annoying thing is production capacity. If production capacity fails to meet customers' orders, it is impossible to verify whether NIO will not be sold, which is the most embarrassing situation at present. It is also an important factor affecting stock prices. At present, the main production capacity is still only JIANGhuai NIO factory. Through capacity upgrading, the current production capacity has reached the capacity of 24W vehicles. We can produce 30 million cars a year by working overtime and increasing shifts, so we can take a good look at nextev's sales next year. But even with a capacity of 30W, it is uncertain whether the parts can keep up. On the other hand, whether the order quantity is enough. In addition, the current production capacity will not be given to all models for sale. As three new models will be delivered in the next three quarters, the capacity division will certainly exist, so next year is definitely worth paying attention to. Meanwhile, NexTEv's Neopark plant will be put into production in the third quarter of next year, and the accumulated capacity of the two plants will reach 60W vehicles. Its own capacity problems will probably come to an end next year, but supply chain problems may still be challenging next year. Meanwhile, with the realization of self-built factories, NIO will have a better grasp of vehicle manufacturing. 3. Is NiO worth buying In fact, this question is easy to answer, but it is also difficult to answer. A large proportion of users have a positive attitude towards the idea of people who have bought cars. If you don't believe it, you can download a NIO app to have a look. If you're always reading opinions online from people who haven't bought a car before, you might as well think for yourself. Such as bass, for example, in electricity, such as wei to be inferior to bba, have a variety of views, but when I saw the street car passing by wei to more and more long, should have the answer in my heart, no matter how you diss these products, there are a lot of people to get started with, and a lot of user successfully into a lot of new users, has been spread word-of-mouth effect, Don't always stick to your prejudices. At least until now, I think NIO's products are very successful. Whether nio is worth buying or not, I have never bought one, I don't deserve to comment. However, in terms of current sales volume and demand exceeding supply, NIO's cars do win a lot of users, and these users will have more assets. A brand can get the minds of a lot of rich people, no matter what, this brand is successful. You say it is passed and sold, and you say it is cheating. Cheat. In any case, brands are recognized by their users through their own efforts. I think such a brand is worthy of praise, and as a good representative of domestic cars, why not support it? And just like wei to rise, and in 2019 was close to collapse, many owners firmly support all the way, at the same time the company's own efforts finally stick, such entrepreneurial stories, it is easy to obtain a series of the same in the way of empathy, as some people like tesla, tesla is the standard of science and technology, think musk is god, These are brand images, and there is essentially no right or wrong. Finally, there is a point of view that The ideal Xiaopeng of NIO represents new forces. In fact, it is also the representative of the rise of new energy vehicles in China. With the rise of China's overall strength, such a brand will easily win the support of new economic forces, which is the development of The Times. In the past, BBA has been the standard for previous successful vehicles, but as future electric vehicles become smarter, new trends are likely to be formed, which is all an opportunity. 4. Danger and opportunity Look at present, the machine is far greater than the danger, the development of the whole hit constantly good, all aspects in an orderly way. Beginning with next year's car delivery, whether can stand the test of new car will not be a big performance issues, sales growth as scheduled, the supply chain will be the moth, can capacity up to sell to it, this is all a year need to focus on the future, wei to now, more like tesla in Shanghai factory capacity began climbing the time, the success can stand the test, Win the market's recognition, let's wait and see. A review of the development of Tesla after its Shanghai plant is helpful for us to better study the development of NIO. Currently, NiO is still in the growth stage, and the current stock price is constantly forming a gold pit. Once the production capacity is successfully expanded and sales soar, NIO's stock price will definitely not be like this. A company with low certainty is likely to get higher returns because of the existence of poor expectations. In the American stock market, capital prefers certainty and is more willing to hype the confirmed affairs and offer a higher premium. At present, NiO is still uncertain enough. The current stock price trend is still left, do not know in which position can be formed, if your strength is enough unlimited capital, just copy the bottom, but if the capital is limited than waiting for the right opportunity to appear, falling is to better get on the car. Even if the stock price performance this year is not as good as Xiaopeng and Ideal, mainly because the latter two have achieved continuous breakthroughs in production capacity this year, but the bug is that xiaopeng, for example, has a very high expectation this year, how to continue to exceed the expectation next year, whether to continue to achieve exceed the expectation of volume, which needs to be observed. But I have to say, this year's Xiaopeng car is very good. For example, ideal, there is still no pure electric car next year, but the ideal is wonderful in seizing the market segment, won a very good sales volume. About domestic new forces, now is not the time to belittle who, has not yet arrived at the situation of fighting each other, promote the development of new energy vehicles is the current theme, new energy vehicles are still blue ocean. A good hunter is always good at waiting.$蔚来(NIO)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ $理想汽车(LI)$ $比亚迪股份(01211)$