To The Moon

There is no doubt that Intel is left behind. With the loss of PC market share and the cooperation termination with Apple,Intel has been marginalized by the market again and again.

We should know that semiconductors are absolutely hot racetracks during the epidemic.In 2020 and 2021, $iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ increased by 51% and 43% respectively. Let's compare the performance of the four major chip manufacturers horizontally in the past two years.

AMD soared from $46 to $164, NVIDIA soared from $60 $346, Qualcomm doubled.However,Intel has dropped by 15% in the past two years. As a technology stock,The TTM P/E ratio of 10 times obviously does not meet the status of "nobility" at all.

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In the first quarter of 2021, AMD's global desktop CPU market share reached 50.8%, surpassing Intel successfully. This is the first time that AMD surpassed Intel in the  global desktop CPU market share since 2006.

During the past two years, not only did Intel face product competition from AMD, NVIDIA and Qualcomm, but Apple and Google also turned to self-developed chips.

It is obviously unacceptable that the advantages of more than ten years have been eroded away, and AMD's catch-up accelerated Intel's change.

Change 1: Management.

In February last year, Intel named Pat Gelsinger with technical background as new CEO, replacing the CEO with a financial background. The intention is obvious to make a breakthrough in chip technology. On the other hand, Pat Gelsinger is a veteran of the technology industry with 40 years of experience. Before that, he had 30 years of working experience at Intel. He can start a wider range of management, operation and structural changes at Intel without burdening the burden of traditional relationships.

Just a few days ago, Jeff Wilcox, director of M1 chip design at Apple, left Apple and returned to Intel. There is a saying that Apple doesn't need Jeff Wilcox as the system architect. Moreover, even if Jeff Wilcox is experienced, it is difficult for a person to change the whole chip industry, so the effect of his appointment remains to be seen.

Change 2: Refuse to squeeze toothpaste, the new product is competitive 

In November and CES2022 in January of this year, Intel launched the desktop version and mobile version of the 12th Generation Core Processor. The brand-new hybrid architecture products made the whole market feel refreshing and were considered the best game processors. The PC market in 2022 is bound to usher in a new round of reshuffle.

In fact, since the 11th generation CPU, Intel has stopped squeezing toothpaste.The latest Core 12 processor has no reservations on both desktop and mobile, and can compete with AMD's Ruilong processor.

Change 3: Make efforts on Autopilot, and Mobileye may become the next breakthrough.

I don't know if you have caught up with the high-speed train of new energy in 2020 and 2021, the stock of vehicle manufacturers have increased several times.In 2022,automobile intelligence will begin telling stories possibly. Those leading chip manufacturers involved in Autopilot such as NVIDIA, Qualcomm and Intel will probably outperform their peers.

Data show that in 2021, Mobileye received 41 new orders from more than 30 car companies, the shipment of EyeQ chips reached 28.1 million, and the overall revenue reached 1.4 billion US dollars, increased 40% year on year. On December 8th, Intel announced its intention to spin off Mobileye, with a market value expected to reach 50 billion US dollars.

Finally, considering the continuous efforts in technology and products, Intel has walked out from the darkest period. In the past two years,and semiconductorindustr have always been a booming industry. Compared with AMD and NVIDIA, Intel is obviously underestimated. Coupled with the continuous increase in the recognition of new products and market share, I think Intel may be the most valuable stock in the semiconductor industry in 2022.

​$Intel(INTC)$​$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$​$AMD(AMD)$​$Qualcomm(QCOM)$