To The Moon

For growth investors, Sea's incredible growth trajectory has been truly phenomenal, coupled with it being free of Beijing's oversights that saw its Chinese peers fall like dominoes, stunning even institutional investors with the pace of the government's "rectification" adjustments.

Sea's ascent has also been somewhat of a conundrum for value investors, as they don't get how an unprofitable company can be trading at such sky-high valuations without consequences.

Gaming, e-commerce, and fintech are all fast-growing industries, which has enabled Sea Limited to thrive. The company grew its revenue 106% year over year in Q4 2021 and 128% for the entire year. Sea Limited has averaged 119% annual revenue growth over the past three years, so it's continued its rapid growth.

However, management guided Garena for $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion in bookings for 2022. Bookings are essentially funds that have been purchased but not spent on the game platform, so they indicate the momentum of the gaming business. Garena's total 2021 bookings were $4.6 billion, so this is a massive decline that suggests the gaming business could be about to slow down dramatically.

Garena is Sea's "money maker." It contributes all of its profits. Its total 2021 non-GAAP EBITDA from Garena was $2.77 billion, while the rest of the company posted losses, bringing companywide 2021 EBITDA to minus $593 million. Garena's profits enable the company to invest in growth, like expanding into new markets. It's reasonable that a weakness in the gaming business could threaten Sea's path to bottom-line profitability (positive net income), as well as its ability to fund growth.