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2022-05-25

It's not bottom yet

SPY: Stocks May See A Massive Move Following The Fed Minutes

The S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) continues its decline, and to this point, every rally has failed mise

SPY: Stocks May See A Massive Move Following The Fed Minutes

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9022965023,"tweetId":"9022965023","gmtCreate":1653458368063,"gmtModify":1676535286333,"author":{"id":4110406819608232,"authorId":4110406819608232,"authorIdStr":"4110406819608232","name":"WinLin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>It's not bottom yet</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>It's not bottom yet</p></body></html>","text":"It's not bottom yet","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022965023","repostId":2238630980,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2238630980","pubTimestamp":1653456877,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2238630980?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-25 13:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Stocks May See A Massive Move Following The Fed Minutes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238630980","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) continues its decline, and to this point, every rally has failed mise","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59b6ad01e538c9d1efb0b3e1d94b66f\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) continues its decline, and to this point, every rally has failed miserably. Investors continue to search unsuccessfully for a bottom, and they&#39;re struggling to find <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, which may be because there&#39;s none in sight. One would think that after seven down weeks on the index and the ETF, the market would be due for a bounce. But so far, that has not happened.</p><p>It brings us to Wednesday&#39;s all-important FOMC minutes. The minutes have taken on a life of their own over the past few months and have to some degree become more important than the actual FOMC meetings. Maybe that is because the FOMC minutes have in some ways been used to telegraph future FOMC meeting decisions.</p><h2>The Fed Minutes</h2><p>As noted on April 5, the Fed minutes have served as a sell the news event for the SPY and the entire market. This time may be different because the FOMC meeting offered a minimal rebound.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9c6d25f9287e2140efa8f051cc45589\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TradingView</span></p><p>Additionally, the VIX is trading at much higher levels than other FOMC minute releases, with a current value of 30. It would imply that traders are already pretty well hedged going into this event. and may not need to add more puts.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26b28e734b9f44b1ebf65c48cd2af918\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TradingView</span></p><h2>No Panic Yet?</h2><p>So does that mean these minutes could offer that big relief rally that many investors have been looking for? It could, but there&#39;s another problem here: While the market searches for that much-needed short-term bottom, we haven&#39;t seen those usual capitulation type of moments associated with a bottom, such as a VIX surging above 40 or a put-to-call ratio approaching 1.5.</p><p>These Fed minutes could offer the market the opportunity to create that capitulation moment, at least for the short term, especially if they signal that the Fed has no intention of slowing down. These Fed minutes could provide that short-term market bottom, with a VIX and Put-To-Call ratio surge.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8558e410f8ea3dadf539a929af3829\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TradingView</span></p><p>This means that the Fed minutes may be a game-time decision in terms of what the market decides to do, and it may be that initial reaction that fake&#39;s everyone out, as the FOMC meeting did. But given the latest quarterly results from the retailers and today&#39;s very disappointing new home sales, coupled with Snap&#39;s (SNAP) revenue warning, there are clear signs that the economy is slowing.</p><p>The significant risk for the market lies because the current conditions are suitable for a big lower push, especially if the minutes show that the Fed is all-in on breaking inflation and willing to create a substantial economic slowdown to achieve it.</p><h2>Patterns Persist</h2><p>The technical chart also suggests that the declines could have more to go before it&#39;s said and done. The Relative Strength Index has failed to hit a reading below 30, indicating the ETF is not oversold. Additionally, there&#39;s a steep downtrend that has been in place since mid-April, which to this point, offers substantial technical resistance. Also, the ETF is consolidating sideways right now between $380 and $400, which is similar to what happened at the end of April when it was consolidating between $400 and $420.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b513d3ca517541ba27b63d43e9f5a6ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TradingView</span></p><p>Within this, another pattern has been taking place, with these very sharp moves higher in the day or two before a Fed event, followed by a steep sell-off. The first ramp-up came heading into the May 4 FOMC meeting, which resulted in all gains being given back followed by new lows. The second ramp-up occurred heading into the May 17 Wall Street Journal Q&amp;A session with Jay Powell, followed by all gains disappearing and new lows.</p><p>Now there has been a ramp higher which was started on Friday, May 20, heading into the Fed minutes. To this point, all of those gains have <i>not</i> been given back. If the pattern persists, there should be new lows that follow the Fed minutes and a potential break below $380.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c4338aa9efebbccc8aac81a5cef2a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TradingView</span></p><p>Additionally, the June Fed meeting sets up nicely with the March FOMC meeting. June 15 will be the next FOMC meeting, followed by options expiration on June 17 and then potentially two weeks of quarterly rebalancing to close out the month of June. Nearly identical to the sequence seen in the big March rally.</p><p>If anything is clear, the Fed minutes carry a tremendous amount of risk because the market seems geared to have a massive move. Choosing which way seems like an impossible task, but if the pattern persists, that move may be lower first, giving investors the capitulation they have been searching for.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Stocks May See A Massive Move Following The Fed Minutes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Stocks May See A Massive Move Following The Fed Minutes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-25 13:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514188-spy-stocks-may-see-a-massive-move-following-the-fed-minutes><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) continues its decline, and to this point, every rally has failed miserably. Investors continue to search unsuccessfully for a bottom, and they're struggling to find one,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514188-spy-stocks-may-see-a-massive-move-following-the-fed-minutes\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","UVXY":"1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","SVXY":"0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF","BK4576":"AR","TVIX":"二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","SNAP":"Snap Inc","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4508":"社交媒体"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514188-spy-stocks-may-see-a-massive-move-following-the-fed-minutes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2238630980","content_text":"The S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) continues its decline, and to this point, every rally has failed miserably. Investors continue to search unsuccessfully for a bottom, and they're struggling to find one, which may be because there's none in sight. One would think that after seven down weeks on the index and the ETF, the market would be due for a bounce. But so far, that has not happened.It brings us to Wednesday's all-important FOMC minutes. The minutes have taken on a life of their own over the past few months and have to some degree become more important than the actual FOMC meetings. Maybe that is because the FOMC minutes have in some ways been used to telegraph future FOMC meeting decisions.The Fed MinutesAs noted on April 5, the Fed minutes have served as a sell the news event for the SPY and the entire market. This time may be different because the FOMC meeting offered a minimal rebound.TradingViewAdditionally, the VIX is trading at much higher levels than other FOMC minute releases, with a current value of 30. It would imply that traders are already pretty well hedged going into this event. and may not need to add more puts.TradingViewNo Panic Yet?So does that mean these minutes could offer that big relief rally that many investors have been looking for? It could, but there's another problem here: While the market searches for that much-needed short-term bottom, we haven't seen those usual capitulation type of moments associated with a bottom, such as a VIX surging above 40 or a put-to-call ratio approaching 1.5.These Fed minutes could offer the market the opportunity to create that capitulation moment, at least for the short term, especially if they signal that the Fed has no intention of slowing down. These Fed minutes could provide that short-term market bottom, with a VIX and Put-To-Call ratio surge.TradingViewThis means that the Fed minutes may be a game-time decision in terms of what the market decides to do, and it may be that initial reaction that fake's everyone out, as the FOMC meeting did. But given the latest quarterly results from the retailers and today's very disappointing new home sales, coupled with Snap's (SNAP) revenue warning, there are clear signs that the economy is slowing.The significant risk for the market lies because the current conditions are suitable for a big lower push, especially if the minutes show that the Fed is all-in on breaking inflation and willing to create a substantial economic slowdown to achieve it.Patterns PersistThe technical chart also suggests that the declines could have more to go before it's said and done. The Relative Strength Index has failed to hit a reading below 30, indicating the ETF is not oversold. Additionally, there's a steep downtrend that has been in place since mid-April, which to this point, offers substantial technical resistance. Also, the ETF is consolidating sideways right now between $380 and $400, which is similar to what happened at the end of April when it was consolidating between $400 and $420.TradingViewWithin this, another pattern has been taking place, with these very sharp moves higher in the day or two before a Fed event, followed by a steep sell-off. The first ramp-up came heading into the May 4 FOMC meeting, which resulted in all gains being given back followed by new lows. The second ramp-up occurred heading into the May 17 Wall Street Journal Q&A session with Jay Powell, followed by all gains disappearing and new lows.Now there has been a ramp higher which was started on Friday, May 20, heading into the Fed minutes. To this point, all of those gains have not been given back. If the pattern persists, there should be new lows that follow the Fed minutes and a potential break below $380.TradingViewAdditionally, the June Fed meeting sets up nicely with the March FOMC meeting. June 15 will be the next FOMC meeting, followed by options expiration on June 17 and then potentially two weeks of quarterly rebalancing to close out the month of June. Nearly identical to the sequence seen in the big March rally.If anything is clear, the Fed minutes carry a tremendous amount of risk because the market seems geared to have a massive move. Choosing which way seems like an impossible task, but if the pattern persists, that move may be lower first, giving investors the capitulation they have been searching for.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}