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Mummy60
2022-05-24

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Tesla: Time To Pull The Buy Trigger

SummaryTesla stock has been battered as it was swamped by the headwinds in Shanghai. Giga Shanghai s

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9026550877,"tweetId":"9026550877","gmtCreate":1653403796799,"gmtModify":1676535275709,"author":{"id":3580721901108089,"authorId":3580721901108089,"authorIdStr":"3580721901108089","name":"Mummy60","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7c8be7b0a4a6f7a4e3cbb1bc7b21eda","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Haha</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Haha</body></html>","text":"Haha","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026550877","repostId":2237691633,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2237691633","pubTimestamp":1653376916,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2237691633?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-24 15:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Time To Pull The Buy Trigger","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237691633","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryTesla stock has been battered as it was swamped by the headwinds in Shanghai. Giga Shanghai s","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<ul><li>Tesla stock has been battered as it was swamped by the headwinds in Shanghai. Giga Shanghai still operated with a single shift and at 45% capacity.</li><li>Therefore, the consensus estimates have been revised downwards to reflect the weaker outlook in its production and deliveries. Investors need to pay attention to its double shift resumption.</li><li>Our price action analysis suggests that a potential bottom could occur. However, a reversal signal is still pending. Otherwise, a fall to $550 is possible.</li><li>We revise our rating from Hold to Buy. We believe the risk/reward profile has improved markedly from April.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c27a0eac9a28bef79be0b62ea6e94f9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Xiaolu Chu/Getty Images NewsInvestment ThesisTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has seen its stock battered after forming a top in early April. The market makers drew in unsuspecting investors who were optimistic going into its FQ1 earnings card.We presented in our previous article that TSLA stock looked overvalued post-earnings. However, we also emphasized to investors not to underestimate the headwinds from its Q2 snarls, given Tesla&#39;s significant manufacturing exposure in China. Also, we highlighted that higher raw materials costs might not have been factored in adequately. Furthermore, Giga Berlin and Texas are still early in their ramp. Therefore, replacing those lost units from Shanghai would be highly challenging, even with Fremont going overtime.Consequently, the weaker recovery in ramp from Giga Shanghai has impacted its Q2 forecasts. As a result, the consensus estimates have been revised markedly to reflect Tesla&#39;s weaker than expected deliveries and production.Our price action analysis suggests that TSLA stock is at a near-term bottom. While it has no bear-trap reversal signal yet, we are confident that the current bottom would hold. Notably, TSLA stock last traded at an NTM normalized P/E of 51.28x. Moreover, at its deep retracements in 2019 and 2020, TSLA stock held its bottom at around the 50x P/E mark. Therefore, we think the risk/reward seems to be on the upside, as long as Shanghai&#39;s ramp recovery remains on track.Accordingly, we revise our rating on TSLA stock from Hold to Buy, as we believe the risk/reward profile has improved significantly.Revised Estimates Reflect Q2&#39;s Uncertainties<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c389c151bdc6da19cea022d761f1e0b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Tesla revenue change % and EBIT margins % consensus estimates (TIKR)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccf58d3ea7239371fbcef2ea53c31fb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Tesla GAAP EPS comps (TIKR)Tesla&#39;s FQ2 estimates have been revised further downwards from April. We think it&#39;s justified because Tesla&#39;s Shanghai manufacturing capacity has been significantly impacted. Based on the latest updates, Giga Shanghai could be in a closed-loop system until mid-June. However, it has been unable to shift to a higher gear with a double shift system, as the plant operated at 45% capacity. Bloomberg reported that the second shift could resume this week. Therefore, we urge investors to pay attention to updates regarding the resumption of the second shift. It&#39;s critical to recover its manufacturing cadence while Berlin and Texas continue their early ramp.As a result, the consensus estimates over its Q2 deliveries outlook have shrunk by more than 20%, from 350K (pre-lockdowns) to 277K. Consequently, Tesla&#39;s revenue growth estimates for FQ2 have also been revised to 50.8%, down from 58.5% in April. It also represents a significant downtick from Q1&#39;s 80.5% growth. Furthermore, its EBIT margins have also been impacted, down slightly from April estimates of 14.8% to 14.6%.Notably, its GAAP EPS estimates have also been revised downwards from April&#39;s $1.94 (up 90.1% YoY) to $1.85 (up 81.1% YoY). Hence, we believe the reaction in the market is justified, as the market needs to price in the uncertainties in Q2.Notwithstanding, the Street expects Tesla to pick up the pace rapidly in H2&#39;22. Tesla is expected to compensate for its Q2&#39;s snarls in H2, with its revenue and EPS estimates upgraded. Therefore, the Street expects the impact to be isolated to Q2 and not structural.Nevertheless, we remain cautiously optimistic over its prospects in H2. Shanghai has started to reopen for business, with the city planning to restore more normal life and operations by the end of June. Therefore, we believe that the prognosis is favorable, but we urge investors to continue monitoring the lockdowns situation in China.Price Action Is Constructive<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd63437c568674bb7c92bf35e2b5b260\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>TSLA stock price chart (TradingView)TSLA stock has a series of astute bull traps designed by the market makers to draw in buyers at the top, as seen above. We believe the market is still digesting the steep gains from Q4&#39;21, leading to the bull trap seen in October 2021.The market also set a series of intermediate traps in January and April. Therefore, investors are urged to pay close attention to TSLA stock price action and avoid adding near those traps shown above.However, the stock is currently testing a significant support zone and could form a double-bottom bear trap. Notwithstanding, it remains tentative, with no price action reversal signal yet. Investors should note that the potential for a fall to $550 is possible if the current level fails to hold.Tesla&#39;s Valuation Is More Attractive Than April<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75120c602cb10783f325ae6268619166\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>TSLA stock NTM normalized P/E and NTM normalized EPS (TIKR)TSLA stock last traded at an NTM normalized P/E of 51.28x. Notably, the 50 P/E metric has marked a bottom in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Therefore, the market could support TSLA stock at the current levels. Furthermore, Tesla&#39;s adjusted EPS consensus estimates have continued to rise robustly, undergirding its valuation.Therefore, we think the valuation of TSLA stock makes more sense now.Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?We revise our rating on TSLA stock from Hold to Buy. Our fundamental thesis is based on Shanghai lockdowns not worsening from here, helping Giga Shanghai to resume its two shifts cadence soon. Our price action analysis suggests a potential double bottom bear trap but has not been validated yet. So, more conservative investors may want to wait before pulling the buy trigger. Otherwise, a fall to the $550 level is possible before a reversal occurs.We also think that TSLA stock at around 50x NTM normalized P/E is a more attractive valuation as it had held the level in its previous deep retracements.</body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Time To Pull The Buy Trigger</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Time To Pull The Buy Trigger\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-24 15:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513916-tesla-time-to-pull-buy-trigger>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummaryTesla stock has been battered as it was swamped by the headwinds in Shanghai. Giga Shanghai still operated with a single shift and at 45% capacity.Therefore, the consensus estimates have been ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513916-tesla-time-to-pull-buy-trigger\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513916-tesla-time-to-pull-buy-trigger","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2237691633","content_text":"SummaryTesla stock has been battered as it was swamped by the headwinds in Shanghai. Giga Shanghai still operated with a single shift and at 45% capacity.Therefore, the consensus estimates have been revised downwards to reflect the weaker outlook in its production and deliveries. Investors need to pay attention to its double shift resumption.Our price action analysis suggests that a potential bottom could occur. However, a reversal signal is still pending. Otherwise, a fall to $550 is possible.We revise our rating from Hold to Buy. We believe the risk/reward profile has improved markedly from April.Xiaolu Chu/Getty Images NewsInvestment ThesisTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has seen its stock battered after forming a top in early April. The market makers drew in unsuspecting investors who were optimistic going into its FQ1 earnings card.We presented in our previous article that TSLA stock looked overvalued post-earnings. However, we also emphasized to investors not to underestimate the headwinds from its Q2 snarls, given Tesla's significant manufacturing exposure in China. Also, we highlighted that higher raw materials costs might not have been factored in adequately. Furthermore, Giga Berlin and Texas are still early in their ramp. Therefore, replacing those lost units from Shanghai would be highly challenging, even with Fremont going overtime.Consequently, the weaker recovery in ramp from Giga Shanghai has impacted its Q2 forecasts. As a result, the consensus estimates have been revised markedly to reflect Tesla's weaker than expected deliveries and production.Our price action analysis suggests that TSLA stock is at a near-term bottom. While it has no bear-trap reversal signal yet, we are confident that the current bottom would hold. Notably, TSLA stock last traded at an NTM normalized P/E of 51.28x. Moreover, at its deep retracements in 2019 and 2020, TSLA stock held its bottom at around the 50x P/E mark. Therefore, we think the risk/reward seems to be on the upside, as long as Shanghai's ramp recovery remains on track.Accordingly, we revise our rating on TSLA stock from Hold to Buy, as we believe the risk/reward profile has improved significantly.Revised Estimates Reflect Q2's UncertaintiesTesla revenue change % and EBIT margins % consensus estimates (TIKR)Tesla GAAP EPS comps (TIKR)Tesla's FQ2 estimates have been revised further downwards from April. We think it's justified because Tesla's Shanghai manufacturing capacity has been significantly impacted. Based on the latest updates, Giga Shanghai could be in a closed-loop system until mid-June. However, it has been unable to shift to a higher gear with a double shift system, as the plant operated at 45% capacity. Bloomberg reported that the second shift could resume this week. Therefore, we urge investors to pay attention to updates regarding the resumption of the second shift. It's critical to recover its manufacturing cadence while Berlin and Texas continue their early ramp.As a result, the consensus estimates over its Q2 deliveries outlook have shrunk by more than 20%, from 350K (pre-lockdowns) to 277K. Consequently, Tesla's revenue growth estimates for FQ2 have also been revised to 50.8%, down from 58.5% in April. It also represents a significant downtick from Q1's 80.5% growth. Furthermore, its EBIT margins have also been impacted, down slightly from April estimates of 14.8% to 14.6%.Notably, its GAAP EPS estimates have also been revised downwards from April's $1.94 (up 90.1% YoY) to $1.85 (up 81.1% YoY). Hence, we believe the reaction in the market is justified, as the market needs to price in the uncertainties in Q2.Notwithstanding, the Street expects Tesla to pick up the pace rapidly in H2'22. Tesla is expected to compensate for its Q2's snarls in H2, with its revenue and EPS estimates upgraded. Therefore, the Street expects the impact to be isolated to Q2 and not structural.Nevertheless, we remain cautiously optimistic over its prospects in H2. Shanghai has started to reopen for business, with the city planning to restore more normal life and operations by the end of June. Therefore, we believe that the prognosis is favorable, but we urge investors to continue monitoring the lockdowns situation in China.Price Action Is ConstructiveTSLA stock price chart (TradingView)TSLA stock has a series of astute bull traps designed by the market makers to draw in buyers at the top, as seen above. We believe the market is still digesting the steep gains from Q4'21, leading to the bull trap seen in October 2021.The market also set a series of intermediate traps in January and April. Therefore, investors are urged to pay close attention to TSLA stock price action and avoid adding near those traps shown above.However, the stock is currently testing a significant support zone and could form a double-bottom bear trap. Notwithstanding, it remains tentative, with no price action reversal signal yet. Investors should note that the potential for a fall to $550 is possible if the current level fails to hold.Tesla's Valuation Is More Attractive Than AprilTSLA stock NTM normalized P/E and NTM normalized EPS (TIKR)TSLA stock last traded at an NTM normalized P/E of 51.28x. Notably, the 50 P/E metric has marked a bottom in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Therefore, the market could support TSLA stock at the current levels. Furthermore, Tesla's adjusted EPS consensus estimates have continued to rise robustly, undergirding its valuation.Therefore, we think the valuation of TSLA stock makes more sense now.Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?We revise our rating on TSLA stock from Hold to Buy. Our fundamental thesis is based on Shanghai lockdowns not worsening from here, helping Giga Shanghai to resume its two shifts cadence soon. Our price action analysis suggests a potential double bottom bear trap but has not been validated yet. So, more conservative investors may want to wait before pulling the buy trigger. Otherwise, a fall to the $550 level is possible before a reversal occurs.We also think that TSLA stock at around 50x NTM normalized P/E is a more attractive valuation as it had held the level in its previous deep retracements.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":127,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":101952212,"gmtCreate":1653404390376,"gmtModify":1663250136827,"authorId":3576105353976896,"author":{"id":3576105353976896,"authorId":3576105353976896,"name":"WayneLee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/785daacee256a2b4978a5d50fbe3727b","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9026550877,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Okat","text":"Okat","html":"Okat","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}