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yong168
2022-02-28

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The "financial nuclear bomb" SWIFT bombed Russia and injured the whole world

美国通胀拐点难现，欧盟能源困境难解......对俄实施SWIFT制裁，或将对欧美等国经济造成反噬。2月26日，美国与欧盟委员会、法国、德国、意大利、英国和加拿大政府发表共同声明，宣布实施新一轮对俄制裁

The "financial nuclear bomb" SWIFT bombed Russia and injured the whole world

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9039265794,"tweetId":"9039265794","gmtCreate":1646055524611,"gmtModify":1676534086046,"author":{"id":3570966674623757,"idStr":"3570966674623757","authorId":3570966674623757,"authorIdStr":"3570966674623757","name":"yong168","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>😰</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>😰</body></html>","text":"😰","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039265794","repostId":2214528861,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2214528861","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646041324,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2214528861?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-28 17:42","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The \"financial nuclear bomb\" SWIFT bombed Russia and injured the whole world","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2214528861","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国通胀拐点难现，欧盟能源困境难解......对俄实施SWIFT制裁，或将对欧美等国经济造成反噬。2月26日，美国与欧盟委员会、法国、德国、意大利、英国和加拿大政府发表共同声明，宣布实施新一轮对俄制裁","content":"<html><head></head><body>The inflection point of U.S. inflation is difficult to reach, and the EU's energy dilemma is difficult to solve... The implementation of SWIFT sanctions on Russia may have a backlash on the economies of Europe, the United States and other countries.On February 26, the governments of the United States, the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Canada issued a joint statement announcing the implementation of a new round of sanctions against Russia, includingSome Russian banksExcluded from the SWIFT system.As a \"nuclear weapon\" in the financial field, SWIFT system is an important medium for international financial transactions. If a country cannot participate in SWIFT, it will basically be impossible to conduct cross-border receipts and payments in US dollars and euros, and international trade and financial activities will be greatly hit.However, once Russia is removed from SWIFT, Russia and even the global energy supply pattern will be greatly impacted.In 2020, Russia's crude oil production accounted for 12.6% of the world's total, ranking second in the world, and its natural gas exports accounted for 16% of the world's total, ranking first in the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b47390c5d67e693d4be7075d401d3c\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f2681e06ac100dbd01ce5544948d9f6\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Therefore, western countries were once divided on this. The United States and Germany were the latest to express their prohibition, France, Britain, Canada, Italy and other countries were more determined, while Cyprus and Hungary were more ambiguous.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Securities believes that because of Russia's pivotal position in energy supply, SWIFT sanctions are currently only imposed on \"some\" Russian banks. If Russia is completely eliminated, crude oil production will shrink sharply and oil prices will rise again. On the one hand, it will aggravate the \"stagflation\" pattern in the United States and may lead to the accelerated contraction of the Federal Reserve;On the other hand, because the euro zone (especially Germany) is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas, if severe sanctions are imposed, household consumption will shrink and inflation will soar again, which will backlash the expected higher economic growth rate in Europe this year.<h2>United States: Energy export position may strengthen as inflation rises</h2>For the United States, sanctions against Russia may exacerbate stagflation on the one hand, but on the other hand, they may also strengthen its status as an energy exporter.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Securities pointed out that the United States has shown obvious economic \"stagflation\" characteristics in 2021. If Russia's crude oil output, the world's second largest oil producer, is hit, the overall CPI of the United States may continue to rise driven by energy prices, and may even aggravate Core CPI inflation soared due to insufficient recovery of industrial output.As inflation continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may have to take more significant monetary tightening operations.However, if Russian output drops sharply, it may also strengthen the market position of the United States in exporting energy to Europe.In 2021, U.S. crude oil exports to Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands accounted for more than 20% of total crude oil exports, while this figure was less than 5% in 2014.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b691e88cbca2606b5004d97a786012\" tg-width=\"443\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><h2>Eurozone: Highly dependent on Russian oil and gas, sanctions will cause household consumption to shrink</h2>Among the major developed economies, the euro zone has the highest dependence on Russian energy, and Germany imports the most Russian energy. Once Russia's SWIFT is cut off, Germany's energy supply may be endangered in the short term.The euro zone imports 22.6% and 29.3% of crude oil and natural gas from Russia respectively, in contrast,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Imports mainly depend on Canada, Britain mainly depends on Norway, and Japan mainly depends on the Middle East and Australia.Judging from the country structure of Russia's crude oil and natural gas exports, Russia is shifting the focus of crude oil exports from European countries to China. In terms of natural gas, it exports more to Germany, which may be the main reason for Germany's early opposition.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8971cb07508ca6a8f734757d72af0199\" tg-width=\"448\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb155fe15b2b36e4b3098d4ce3bfbcb\" tg-width=\"436\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Due to the strong resilience of industrial production and the relatively small fiscal and monetary stimulus, the rise in core inflation in the euro zone is significantly weaker than that in the United States, which would have made the euro zone the strongest performing among developed economies this year.But,As energy experiences a more severe price surge, the overall CPI in the euro zone has increased much higher than the core CPI since 2021, and the gap between the two has continued to widen and significantly exceeds the level of the United States.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/954195765083caf833382827b8d301f5\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This means that,If Russia's oil and gas output is significantly restricted due to sanctions, then oil and gas prices related to the lives of euro zone residents will be the first to bear the brunt of a larger increase. This may directly erode the real purchasing power of euro zone residents, resulting in the euro zone 2022. The growth rate of household consumption declines, and real GDP growth may shrink.At this point,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Securities believes that,The degree of stagflation in the euro zone will intensify, which may trigger the European Central Bank's first early rate hike operation in ten years。</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"financial nuclear bomb\" SWIFT bombed Russia and injured the whole world</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"financial nuclear bomb\" SWIFT bombed Russia and injured the whole world\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2022-02-28 17:42\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>The inflection point of U.S. inflation is difficult to reach, and the EU's energy dilemma is difficult to solve... The implementation of SWIFT sanctions on Russia may have a backlash on the economies of Europe, the United States and other countries.On February 26, the governments of the United States, the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Canada issued a joint statement announcing the implementation of a new round of sanctions against Russia, includingSome Russian banksExcluded from the SWIFT system.As a \"nuclear weapon\" in the financial field, SWIFT system is an important medium for international financial transactions. If a country cannot participate in SWIFT, it will basically be impossible to conduct cross-border receipts and payments in US dollars and euros, and international trade and financial activities will be greatly hit.However, once Russia is removed from SWIFT, Russia and even the global energy supply pattern will be greatly impacted.In 2020, Russia's crude oil production accounted for 12.6% of the world's total, ranking second in the world, and its natural gas exports accounted for 16% of the world's total, ranking first in the world.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b47390c5d67e693d4be7075d401d3c\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f2681e06ac100dbd01ce5544948d9f6\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Therefore, western countries were once divided on this. The United States and Germany were the latest to express their prohibition, France, Britain, Canada, Italy and other countries were more determined, while Cyprus and Hungary were more ambiguous.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Securities believes that because of Russia's pivotal position in energy supply, SWIFT sanctions are currently only imposed on \"some\" Russian banks. If Russia is completely eliminated, crude oil production will shrink sharply and oil prices will rise again. On the one hand, it will aggravate the \"stagflation\" pattern in the United States and may lead to the accelerated contraction of the Federal Reserve;On the other hand, because the euro zone (especially Germany) is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas, if severe sanctions are imposed, household consumption will shrink and inflation will soar again, which will backlash the expected higher economic growth rate in Europe this year.<h2>United States: Energy export position may strengthen as inflation rises</h2>For the United States, sanctions against Russia may exacerbate stagflation on the one hand, but on the other hand, they may also strengthen its status as an energy exporter.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06806\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Securities pointed out that the United States has shown obvious economic \"stagflation\" characteristics in 2021. If Russia's crude oil output, the world's second largest oil producer, is hit, the overall CPI of the United States may continue to rise driven by energy prices, and may even aggravate Core CPI inflation soared due to insufficient recovery of industrial output.As inflation continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may have to take more significant monetary tightening operations.However, if Russian output drops sharply, it may also strengthen the market position of the United States in exporting energy to Europe.In 2021, U.S. crude oil exports to Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands accounted for more than 20% of total crude oil exports, while this figure was less than 5% in 2014.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b691e88cbca2606b5004d97a786012\" tg-width=\"443\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><h2>Eurozone: Highly dependent on Russian oil and gas, sanctions will cause household consumption to shrink</h2>Among the major developed economies, the euro zone has the highest dependence on Russian energy, and Germany imports the most Russian energy. Once Russia's SWIFT is cut off, Germany's energy supply may be endangered in the short term.The euro zone imports 22.6% and 29.3% of crude oil and natural gas from Russia respectively, in contrast,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Imports mainly depend on Canada, Britain mainly depends on Norway, and Japan mainly depends on the Middle East and Australia.Judging from the country structure of Russia's crude oil and natural gas exports, Russia is shifting the focus of crude oil exports from European countries to China. In terms of natural gas, it exports more to Germany, which may be the main reason for Germany's early opposition.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8971cb07508ca6a8f734757d72af0199\" tg-width=\"448\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb155fe15b2b36e4b3098d4ce3bfbcb\" tg-width=\"436\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Due to the strong resilience of industrial production and the relatively small fiscal and monetary stimulus, the rise in core inflation in the euro zone is significantly weaker than that in the United States, which would have made the euro zone the strongest performing among developed economies this year.But,As energy experiences a more severe price surge, the overall CPI in the euro zone has increased much higher than the core CPI since 2021, and the gap between the two has continued to widen and significantly exceeds the level of the United States.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/954195765083caf833382827b8d301f5\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This means that,If Russia's oil and gas output is significantly restricted due to sanctions, then oil and gas prices related to the lives of euro zone residents will be the first to bear the brunt of a larger increase. This may directly erode the real purchasing power of euro zone residents, resulting in the euro zone 2022. The growth rate of household consumption declines, and real GDP growth may shrink.At this point,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Securities believes that,The degree of stagflation in the euro zone will intensify, which may trigger the European Central Bank's first early rate hike operation in ten years。</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652971\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652971","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2214528861","content_text":"美国通胀拐点难现，欧盟能源困境难解......对俄实施SWIFT制裁，或将对欧美等国经济造成反噬。2月26日，美国与欧盟委员会、法国、德国、意大利、英国和加拿大政府发表共同声明，宣布实施新一轮对俄制裁，其中包括将部分俄罗斯银行排除在 SWIFT 系统之外。作为金融领域的“核武器”，SWIFT 系统是进行国际金融交易的重要媒介。如果一个国家无法参与 SWIFT，则基本无法进行美元和欧元的跨境收付款，国际贸易和金融活动将受到巨大打击。然而，一旦将俄罗斯从SWIFT剔除，俄罗斯乃至全球能源供给格局都将受到较大冲击。2020年，俄罗斯原油产量占全球12.6%，位居全球第二，天然气出口量占全球16%，全球第一。因此，西方国家对此一度存在分歧。美国、德国最晚表态禁止，法国、英国、加拿大、意大利等国态度更为坚决，而塞浦路斯和匈牙利态度较为暧昧。申万宏源证券认为，正因俄罗斯在能源供给中举足轻重的地位，目前仅对“部分”俄罗斯银行进行SWIFT制裁。若将俄罗斯完全剔除，原油产量大幅收缩，油价再度上涨，一方面将加剧美国的“滞胀”格局，可能导致美联储加速收缩；另一方面，因欧元区（尤其德国）高度依赖俄油气，若严厉制裁，居民消费将收缩，通胀水平将再次飙升，反噬今年欧洲原本预期较高的经济增速。美国：通胀加剧，能源出口地位或强化对于美国而言，对俄罗斯的制裁一方面可能加剧滞胀的局面，但另一方面也可能强化其能源出口国地位。申万宏源证券指出，美国在2021年已经呈现出明显的经济“滞胀”特征，如果作为全球第二大产油国的俄罗斯原油产出受到打击，美国总体CPI可能在能源价格推动下持续上行，甚至可能加剧工业产出恢复不足导致的核心CPI通胀飙升。通胀继续上行的结果是，美联储可能将不得不采取更大幅度的货币紧缩操作。但是，如果俄罗斯产出锐减，也可能会强化美国向欧洲出口能源的市场地位。2021年，美国对德法意西荷六国原油出口占总原油出口比重已经超过 20%，而这一数字在2014年不到5%。欧元区：高度依赖俄油气，制裁将致居民消费收缩在主要发达经济体中，欧元区对俄罗斯能源依赖度最高，而其中又以德国进口俄能源最多，一旦切断俄罗斯SWIFT，在短期内或将危及德国能源供应。欧元区从俄罗斯进口原油和天然气分别占到 22.6%和 29.3%，相比之下，美国能源进口主要依赖加拿大，英国主要依赖挪威，日本则主要依赖中东和澳大利亚。从俄罗斯出口原油和天然气国别结构来看，俄罗斯正在将原油出口的重心从欧洲国家转移到中国，天然气方面，对德国出口较多，这可能是德国前期持反对态度的主要原因。因工业生产韧性较强，且财政货币刺激力度相对较小，导致欧元区核心通胀上行的幅度明显弱于美国，这本将使欧元区成为今年发达经济体中表现最为强劲的一个。但是，由于在能源方面经历更为严重的价格飙升，自2021年至今，欧元区总体CPI涨幅远远高于核心CPI，且两者之差持续扩大并明显超出美国的水平。这意味着，若俄罗斯油气产出因制裁而遭到明显限制，那么事关欧元区居民生活的油气价格将首当其冲出现更大幅度的上涨，这一点可能会直接侵蚀欧元区居民的真实购买力，导致欧元区 2022 年居民消费增速下滑，实际GDP增长可能有所收缩。至此，申万宏源证券认为，欧元区滞胀程度将有所强化，可能触发欧央行十年内首次提前加息操作。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1249,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}