To The Moon

I believe that many friends are addicted to Tesla's options, especially single-leg buyer players, but the profit-loss ratio of playing Tesla's options has begun to decline in recent times. Many people initially played Tesla options because Tesla’s unit price was high, and at the end of the day, options would have a very high potential profit-loss ratio. The more expensive, the IV will continue to rise with volatility. Under the current market conditions, you can make money by buying a call or buying a put, but the ratio of profit and loss is getting lower and lower.

This article is only a record of personal investment thinking, and does not constitute any investment advice. The pattern is different and the position is different. It is for reference only.

In fact, this phenomenon applies to many stocks, and individuals mainly play Tesla, so take Tesla as an example. Why this happens is actually quite simple.

The price of options can well reflect market expectations, and market expectations will also have a very large impact on the price of options. For example, during the earnings season, options IV of many stock options will skyrocket before the earnings report, and the price of options will skyrocket. It may be twice as expensive as usual or even more. The skyrocketing price of options often reflects the strong demand of option buyers, which usually means that something big is about to happen, and a lot of money starts to choose the direction.

The current market is in such a state, and the divergence of funds is increasing. Some people are betting that inflation cannot be controlled and the U.S. economy is in recession. Buy call bargains. In addition, the recent volatility of U.S. stocks has been violent, and after skyrocketing, it will suddenly plummet, so it has greatly increased investors' expectations, and a large number of funds are expected to have large fluctuations. Agricultural data, such as cpi data, such as crude oil inventories, the market is very sensitive now, because every detail of information may be infinitely amplified by funds, so the attention of every data is constantly increasing.

The more people who pay attention, the more participants, the higher the expectations, the greater the power of buyers than the power of sellers, and the price of options will naturally become more expensive.

It’s best to refrain from participating in options recently. Unless you have a very high degree of certainty, it is better to play with the underlying stock, especially Tesla, which has a large number of participants. According to some recent experience, if the volatility is super large on Friday , then the options in the second week will be very expensive, and then wash the options for three consecutive days in the second week to kill the options, and then there will be large random fluctuations on Thursday or Friday. It's not that Tesla options don't make money now, but the percentage of making money is far less than it used to be.

On the contrary, the winning rate of portfolio options has been greatly improved. If you do not have high requirements for yield and are more interested in the absolute value of income, you can find some stocks with high volatility and make them expire every other week. The current price is not far away, and at the same time, the bull-bear spread with a small spread range. In the recent market, such a strategy may not have the highest return, but it has a small taste of luck, and you can refer to my previous post on the double-open strategy. In the current market, there will be no great achievements, but there will be relatively stable gains. In the current market, it is difficult to trade sideways, because the market capital divergence is very large, and violent fluctuations are the norm.

Most of the individuals who participate in the option single-leg strategy are to gain super high returns, but when the market is not suitable, it is best to control the frequency of participation, so that you can put yourself in a more favorable position to a certain extent.

At present, tqqq and sqqq are relatively good participation targets, and the high time value makes the buyer too passive.

The Nasdaq futures have been very volatile recently. In addition to participating in tqqq and sqqq, during the day, you can look at the two: $South Twice Doing the Nasdaq (07266.HK)$ and $South Twice Shorting the Nasdaq (07568.HK)$, Because in the time period from 8:00 am to 4:00 pm, if the Nasdaq futures fluctuates greatly, tqqq and sqqq are relatively passive. On the one hand, participation in Nasdaq futures requires a higher capital threshold, on the other hand, many people have no futures experience, and During the day, the trading volume of Nasdaq futures is small and it is not easy to participate, so these two products of Hong Kong stocks seem to be okay. Of course, if the Nasdaq futures fluctuate greatly, it is also possible to directly participate in the leveraged products of Hang Seng Technology. The linkage between Hong Kong stocks and Nasdaq futures is relatively high.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $ProShares Nasdaq Triple Long ETF (TQQQ.US)$ $Nasdaq 100ETF - Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$

The advantages of single-leg options are disappearing under the violent volatility

US stocks and Hong Kong stock options derivatives options resumption