To The Moon

June wasn't a good month for electric vehicle (EV) stocks. It didn't matter whether it was widely followed start-ups like Rivian Automotive$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ (RIVN-0.15%) and Lucid Group$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ (LCID-0.93%)or the sector leader Tesla$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (TSLA1.24%). Rivian shares dropped 18%, Lucid 15%, and Tesla was down 11.2%, according to data provided byS&P Global Market Intelligence.

That's a bad month that only added to an extended slide for these names. In fact, Rivian has dropped a whopping 86% from its peak reached last November, while Lucid and Tesla are off 71% and 46%, respectively, from their highs last fall. Investors may be wondering if these stocks have finally reached a near-term bottom.

The poor June performance stemmed from a culmination of troubling news for the EV companies. Rivian and Lucid already had to cut 2022 production estimates earlier this year due to supply chain disruptions. All three companies have had to raise prices on their vehicles to combat escalating material costs, too. That isn't likely to affect demand in general, but it doesn't help the two start-up companies on their path to profitability if they aren't recouping all of the increased costs.

That explains why investors have driven the stocks of Rivian and Lucid down so much.Tesla is in much better shape, having reported $5.5 billion in net income and $5 billion of free cash flow in 2021. It continues to grow its business and generated another $3.3 billion of net income in the first quarter of 2022. But that success and more was also built into its share price.

Many economies around the world are slowing right now. Some people expect a full-blown recession in the U.S. That's not a good environment in which to be ramping up a new manufacturing business. It seems fewer investors want to take the risk of owning Rivian or Lucid shares with that kind of uncertainty.

Both are well capitalized right now, but that won't carry them too much longer. Rivian had $17 billion in cash as of the end of the first quarter, and Lucid held about $5.4 billion. That capital was raised to invest in additional manufacturing facilities and to carry the companies to a point of generating positive free cash flow. In the current environment, some investors aren't willing to tie up investments waiting to see whether they succeed.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has also said the two new plants recently starting production in Texas and Germany are burning through billions in cash. But Tesla also has about $17 billion in cash and has proven its ability to profitably run its business at scale. The risk for Tesla comes from its valuation more than execution. Even if it overcomes recent headwinds and matches its first-quarter results for the remainder of 2022, it trades at aprice-to-earnings (P/E) ratioabove 50.

Rivian and Lucid both have the money and plans in place to be able to succeed. But internal missteps or external factors can always interfere with those plans. For investors with a long-term mindset willing to make aggressive investments, though, these names may be getting to the point where they look attractive.